Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Oil Bounce, Short-Covering, Bargain-Hunting, Commodity/Construction Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Slightly Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.31 +1.62%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.03 +.37%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.98 +.18%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 67.50 -1.56%

• ISE Sentiment Index 98.0 unch.

• Total Put/Call 1.07 -4.46%

• NYSE Arms .67 -52.67% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.16 -.28%
• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 768.0 +.37%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.73 -2.63%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 26.33 +4.61%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 71.21 -.18%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 401.26 -.88%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 113.47 -.01%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.75 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 24.75 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.5 -.75 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.

• Yield Curve 120.0 unch.

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $62.45/Metric Tonne +.39%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.50 -4.45 points
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 12.0 +2.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.20 -.4 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.64 unch.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +37 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -12 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Ukraine Rebel Leader Calls for Mobilization After Talks Fail. A Ukrainian separatist leader ordered a military mobilization as the conflict with government forces escalated after peace talks failed to secure a truce. The call-up seeks to increase the rebel army to as many as 100,000 people, Alexander Zakharchenko, head of the self-declared Donetsk republic, said Monday, according to the separatist-run DAN news service. The new troops will be deployed against a Ukrainian military build-up in the south of the conflict zone so that “by spring, they’ll be meeting a different force,” he said, according to DAN.
• Greece Standoff Sparks Ire Over Economic Risks. U.S. and British leaders are expressing frustration at Europe’s failure to stamp out financial distress in Greece and the risk it poses to the global economy. U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, whose government faces voters in three months, became the latest critics, following comments by Britain’s central banker, Mark Carney, and U.S. President Barack Obama. “It’s clear that the standoff between Greece and the euro zone is fast becoming the biggest risk to the global economy,” Osborne said after meeting Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis in London. “It’s a rising threat to our economy at home.” 
• Merkel Says Euro Area at Crossroads by Avoiding Tough Choices. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the euro is at a crossroads and called on members of the currency union to settle on a common path to remain competitive with the rest of the world. “We have to come to an agreement that we all strive for this -- and really honestly strive for it,” Merkel told a group of students in Budapest, Hungary. “Otherwise there will continue to be very great tensions within the euro area.”
• Russia’s Manufacturing at Weakest Since 2009 as Ruble Sinks. Russian manufacturing slipped to a 5 1/2-year low as the nation’s worst currency crisis since 1998 stokes inflation and weighs on businesses already facing a recession. The Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 47.6 last month, the lowest since June 2009, from 48.9 in December, HSBC Holdings Plc said Monday in a statement, citing data compiled by Markit Economics. Readings below 50 indicate a deterioration in conditions. “Signs of contracting business activity became more visible,” said Alexander Morozov, HSBC’s chief economist for Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States. “Meanwhile, price pressures intensified further, increasing the probability of a ‘bad equilibrium:’ high price growth amid falling demand.”
• Banks’ $2.7 Trillion Debt Habit Will Be Curbed, Nouy Says. The days of European lenders being allowed to load up on government debt without having to account for risk are numbered, according to Daniele Nouy, the euro area’s top bank supervisor. A regulatory loophole that allows banks to apply a zero risk weight to much of their government debt holdings and avoid any capital charge should be closed, said Nouy, who heads the European Central Bank’s oversight arm. “It was confirmed during the crisis that there are no risk-free assets,” Nouy said in an interview in Frankfurt. “So there should be a risk weight, capital requirements for sovereign exposures.” Nouy said she sees movement toward closing the loophole. “It will happen.”  
• Currency Warriors Shoot Blanks in Failing to Boost Economies. The big guns of the global currency war may be firing blanks. A dozen interest rate cuts already this year from Canada to India plus quantitative easing in the euro area have investors declaring the central bankers share the same goals: weaker exchange rates and faster inflation. The risk is a race to the bottom: a series of competitive devaluations in which nations turn increasingly aggressive in their efforts to seize share in international trade markets. That worry will form the backdrop when Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers convene next week in Istanbul.  
• Europe Stocks Erase Losses at End of Trading Day. European stocks ended the day little changed, erasing declines in the last 1 1/2 hour of trading. Futures on the Euro Stoxx 50 Index rose. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced less than 0.1 percent to 367.28, after falling as much as 0.8 percent, as energy companies rallied the most in two weeks.
• Oil Extends Gains From 6-Year Low; Strike Boosts Gasoline. Oil extended a surge from the lowest level in almost six years on speculation some investors are buying contracts to close out bearish bets. Gasoline rose as a refinery strike entered a second day. West Texas Intermediate futures gained as much as 4.8 percent while Brent increased as much as 5 percent before paring gains. Hedge funds and other speculators held the largest number of short contracts in WTI in four years. Oil rallied 8.3 percent on Friday as drillers pulled 94 rigs from U.S. fields last week, the most on record. Gasoline jumped to a five-week high.
• Oil Companies Draw on Creative Financing to Stay Afloat After Prices Tumble. North America’s small and mid-sized energy companies are searching for creative ways to stay afloat as investors smell blood in the water from the almost 60 percent fall in the price of oil since June. Oil and natural gas companies are straining for solutions before cuts in credit lines and increases in lending rates hit home in April, when banks re-price the collateral used to secure revolving credit lines. Some are turning to more creative forms of financing as familiar sources of money dry up.
• Specialist Doctors Head for Exit as U.S. Shifts Payments. The Obama administration’s push to transform the way the U.S. pays for health care is splitting the medical profession, as family doctors embrace changes that oncologists, neurologists and other specialists are concerned will cause turmoil. The government set a timetable last week to extinguish Medicare’s “fee-for-service” system, which rewards the quantity of care over quality. That’s adding to pressure on physicians who have been debating whether to join their local hospital, merge their practices into ever-bigger groups or get out of medicine.

Barron's:

•  Central Banks Could Create Global Recession and Deflation. Massive central-bank easing could create global recessionary and deflationary forces, just as competitive devaluations did in the 1930s.

ZeroHedge: 

• Tsipras Does Not Rule Out Russian Aid As UK Chancellor Calls Greece "Greatest Risk To Global Economy".
• "Drillers Are In Denial" Brynjolfsson Warns Crude Bounce Is "One More Head-Fake". (graph)
• Why Goldman(GS) Is Closing Out Its "Tactical Pro-cyclical" European Trades On Grexit Fears. 
• Greece Just Blew Up The Empire's Death Star Of Debt.
• US Deflation Surges To Level Last Seen In October 2008. (graph)
• Dow Down 1000 Points From Record High, Stocks & Bond Yields Plunging. (graph)
• ISM Manufacturing Tumbles To One-Year Lows As New Orders Crater; Construction Spending Disappoints. (graph)
• US Manufacturing "Remains In Low Gear" - Hovers Near One-Year Lows. (graph)
• US Household Spending Tumbles Most Since 2009; Salaries Have Smallest Monthly Increase In 7 Months. (graph)
• Exxon Revenues, Earnings Tumble 21% From Year Ago, Sales Miss Expectations By $5 Billion; Stock Buyback Grinds To Near Halt.
• Q1 Energy Earnings Shocker: Then And Now. (graph)

Business Insider: 

• We're one step closer to no more RadioShacks.
• Here's why President Obama's new budget should make tech companies nervous.
• A dark horse is having 'a big moment' in the 2016 presidential race.
• The 10 most-watched Super Bowl commercials on YouTube. 
• Chinese President Xi Jinping just made his first move against Wall Street China.
• Russian banks are set to lose 1 trillion rubles in 2015.

@LOggOl:

• Russian radiation, chemical, and biological defense troops have begun massive drills (near Ukraine).
• Gold catching a bid. Note rumors about White House plans to arm Ukraine and possible SWIFT exclusion of Russia.

Financial Times:

• Google(GOOG), Microsoft(MSFT) and Amazon(AMZN) pay to get around ad blocking tool.

Telegraph:

• Greece's master of game theory is leading his country to abject disaster. Capital controls can be only weeks, if not days away, amid growing confusion over Greek debt forgiveness demands.

Het Financieele Dagblad:

• ECB QE Plan Won't Have Any Impact, Rabobank CFO Says. ECB QE is a dramatic step and won't lead to anything, citing Rabobank Chief Financial Officer Bert Bruggink in an interview.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.41%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Biotech -1.81% 2) Hospitals -1.42% 3) Airlines -1.41%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• ARDX, MCO, PBI, TRW, FCN, MCO, PBI, TRW, FCN, HA, GES, DBVT, SONS, WYN, NGVC, CPSI, SYY, OTEX, SNA, BZH, ICPT, EXR, ARLP, LABL, CAVM, CHSP, OMER, TGI, MAN and CLDT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DHR 2) THC 3) S 4) BHI 5) ANF

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ANF 2) DOW 3) LULU 4) OPHT 5) KOP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.27%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +2.89% 2) Oil Service +2.21% 3) Construction +1.82%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• OAS, NMM, WAC, TEN and SCTY

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CAM 2) AWAY 3) TMV 4) DAL 5) HA
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DECK 2) ISRG 3) DISH 4) PSB 5) T
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Greece Wants Special ECB Help While Going ‘Cold Turkey’ on Aid. Greece is counting on the European Central Bank to maintain a financial lifeline while the week-old government in Athens negotiates new terms on its international bailout package, Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said. While the country is “desperate” for funds, it will forgo further disbursements of emergency aid until negotiating a “new social contract” with its creditors, he said. He set an end-May deadline for reaching a deal on a revamped rescue with the euro area and the International Monetary Fund.  

• Merkel Said to Avoid Meeting Tsipras, Doubt Tax Plans. German Chancellor Angela Merkel wants to avoid being drawn into a direct confrontation with Greek Premier Alexis Tsipras and is unlikely to agree to a bilateral meeting with him at a European Union summit next week, a German government official said. The chancellor’s goal is to show Tsipras that he is isolated in Europe, according to the official, who asked not to be named because the discussions are private. What’s more, she sees little room for maneuver to provide further support for Greece and is skeptical about Tsipras’s claims that he can raise revenue by cutting corruption and increasing taxes on the rich, the official added.

• Greek markets plunge as SYRIZA digs in on challenge to austerity. Greece’s government bonds and stock market plunged in the week after the election of Syriza, the political party whose vow to renegotiate debt obligations and roll back austerity measures has sparked an investor flight. Greek 10-year yields rose 276 basis points, or 2.76 percentage points, to 11.17 percent as of 4:55 p.m. London time Friday, the biggest weekly increase since May 2012. The 2 percent security due in February 2025 fell 12.65, or 126.50 euros per 1,000-euro ($1,129) face amount, to 54.465.  

• Poroshenko Urges Ukraine Cease-Fire After Minsk Peace Talks Fail. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko called for a truce in the eastern European country after peace talks broke down and violence escalated. Poroshenko, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande insisted during a telephone conversation Sunday on “an unconditional and immediate cease-fire as the conflict is escalating and the number of civilian casualties is growing,” according to a statement on the Ukrainian leader’s website.

• ECB Bond-Buying Plan Has Investors Questioning How It All Works. Mario Draghi’s trillion-euro puzzle is missing some key pieces. When the European Central Bank president announced a program on Jan. 22 to buy 60 billion euros ($68 billion) of assets a month for at least 19 months to avert deflation, he surprised investors with the size of the stimulus. He also provided more details than anticipated. Yet analysts poring over the ECB’s statements are finding that several critical points remain unclear.

• Podemos Seeks to Restructure Public Sector Debt. Pablo Iglesias, the leader of Spanish anti-austerity party Podemos, pledged to restructure the nation’s debt if he can convert his opinion-poll lead into election victory, following the example of his ally, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. European officials need to take heed of Nobel laureates who say that Spain needs to reduce its debt before it can properly revive the economy, Iglesias said.   

• Dashed Dreams of Sunac Bailout Sends Kaisa Bonds Lower. Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd.’s dollar bonds slid after Sunac China Holdings Ltd.’s announcement it would buy some of the company’s projects in Shanghai damped speculation the troubled developer might be rescued by its peer. 

• Wife of Beheaded Reporter `Proud' He Showed War's Tragedy. The wife of journalist Kenji Goto said she was proud of her husband’s passion for conveying the “tragedies of war” after his beheading by Islamic State. “My family and I are devastated by the news of Kenji’s death,” Rinko wrote in a statement published by the Rory Peck Trust, a U.K. group that supports freelance journalists. “I remain extremely proud of my husband who reported the plight of people in conflict areas.”  

• China’s Stocks Fall Most in Two Weeks on Manufacturing, Minsheng. China’s stocks fell the most in two weeks after an official manufacturing gauge signaled the first contraction in more than two years and China Minsheng Banking Corp.’s President Mao Xiaofeng resigned. China Minsheng led declines for financial companies, sliding 4.5 percent after Caixin magazine reported that Mao is being investigated by authorities. China Railway Construction Corp. and Air China Ltd. dropped more than 4 percent after the government’s Purchasing Managers’ Index declined to 49.8 last month from 50.1 in December. The nation’s benchmark money-market rates jumped for a fourth day after the securities regulator approved 24 initial public offerings. The Shanghai Composite Index slid 1.9 percent to 3,147.99 at 9:37 a.m. The gauge has fallen 6.8 percent over the past five days as the government stepped up scrutiny of margin lending, while the factory data add to concern the economy is weakening. 

• Asia Stocks Drop as China PMIs Miss; Aussie Bonds Advance. Asian stocks slumped, with the regional benchmark index heading for its longest losing streak in four months, as Chinese manufacturing gauges signaled contraction. Crude oil retreated and Australian bond yields slid to records. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.4 percent by 11:46 a.m. in Tokyo, as the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index declined 1.7 percent.

• Dollar Rises 7th Month as Global Easing Burnishes U.S. Assets. The dollar pushed its winning streak to seven straight months for the first time in a decade as a wave of easing by the world’s major central banks enhanced the appeal of U.S. assets. The euro posted its biggest monthly decline since September 2011 after the European Central Bank’s announcement of sovereign-bond purchases on Jan. 22. Russia’s ruble plunged after an unexpected interest-rate cut and Canadian dollar fell to an almost six-year low. Treasuries had the best January in 27 years. The U.S. unemployment rate is forecast to remain at a more than six-year low before the Feb. 6 report as the Federal Reserve looks to tighten monetary policy.   

• Hedge-Fund Bulls Betting Most on Gold in Two Years: Commodities. Hedge funds are the most bullish on gold in more than two years, betting the metal’s allure will strengthen as slowing economies in Europe and Asia threaten U.S. expansion. Speculators increased their net-long position by 80 percent this year, U.S. government data show. The U.S. economy expanded at a slower-than-forecast pace in the fourth quarter and Federal Reserve officials acknowledged global risks at the end of their policy meeting last week.

• Obama Said to Seek 19% Global Minimum Tax to Aid Road Fund. President Barack Obama will propose that U.S.-based companies pay a minimum 19 percent tax on their future foreign earnings, capturing profits that are now often beyond the government’s reach. Obama will also seek a 14 percent mandatory tax on about $2 trillion in stockpiled offshore profits, said two people familiar with his budget proposals, declining to be named because the document won’t be made public until Feb. 2. Companies would pay that tax regardless of whether they bring the money back to the U.S., the two said, creating a revenue stream the president would use to pay for roads, bridges and other infrastructure projects.  

• Oil Workers in U.S. on First Large-Scale Strike Since 1980. The United Steelworkers union, which represents employees at more than 200 U.S. oil refineries, terminals, pipelines and chemical plants, began a strike at nine sites on Sunday, the biggest walkout called since 1980. The USW started the work stoppage after failing to reach agreement on a labor contract that expired Sunday, saying in a statement that it “had no choice.” The union rejected five contract offers made by Royal Dutch Shell Plc on behalf of oil companies including Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. since negotiations began on Jan. 21.

• Walker Surging in Iowa Poll as Bush Struggles. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is surging, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is an also-ran and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is dominating in a new poll of Iowans likely to vote in the nation's first presidential nominating contest. The Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, taken Monday through Thursday, shows Walker leading a wide-open Republican race with 15 percent, up from just 4 percent in the same poll in October. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky was at 14 percent and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who won the Iowa caucuses in 2008, stood at 10 percent. Bush trailed with 8 percent and increasingly is viewed negatively by likely Republican caucus-goers.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Death Toll Mounts as Ukraine Cease-Fire Talks Break Down. Kiev Says It Expects Surge in Fighting As Russia Sends New Convoy Into Ukraine. Cease-fire talks broke down between Ukraine’s government and Russian-backed rebels while Kiev reported 28 soldiers killed over the weekend in some of the deadliest fighting since a tentative peace deal was signed in September. Artillery duels around a government-held railway hub of Debaltseve in eastern Ukraine squelched hopes to stem a return to full-scale fighting. Both sides accused the other of shelling civilian areas Sunday.

• The Alarming Thing About Climate Alarmism. Exaggerated, worst-case claims result in bad policy and they ignore a wealth of encouraging data. It is an indisputable fact that carbon emissions are rising—and faster than most scientists predicted. But many climate-change alarmists seem to claim that all climate change is worse than expected. This ignores that much of the data are actually encouraging. The latest study from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that in the previous 15 years temperatures had risen 0.09 degrees Fahrenheit.

Fox News: 

• How should U.S. respond to latest ISIS beheading? (video)

MarketWatch.com:

• Americans are failing to pump gas-price savings back into the economy. Americans are taking the money they are saving at the gas pump and socking it away, a sign of consumers’ persistent caution even when presented with an unexpected windfall. This newfound commitment to frugality was illustrated this past week when the nation’s biggest payment-card companies said they aren’t seeing evidence consumers are putting their gasoline savings toward discretionary items like travel, home renovations and electronics.

CNBC:

• Spain's anti-austerity Podemos stages show of force before elections. Tens of thousands marched in Madrid on Saturday in the biggest show of support yet for Spanish anti-austerity party Podemos, whose policies and surging pre-election popularity have drawn comparisons with Greece's new Syriza rulers. Crowds chanted "yes we can" or "tic tac tic tac" to suggest the clock was ticking for Spain's scandal-ridden political elite. Many waved Greek and Republican flags and banners reading "the change is now" or "Pablo president". 

• Department of Justice probing Moody's pre crisis mortgage ratings: WSJ. Moody's Investors Service is under investigation by the U.S. Justice Department for its actions in advance of the 2008 financial crisis, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, with regulators probing why it issued favorable ratings to mortgage deals that ultimately went bust.

Zero Hedge:

• In Denmark You Are Now Paid To Take Out A Mortgage.

• Meet Loretta Lynch – Obama’s Attorney General Nominee Who Might Be Even Worse than Eric Holder.

• One Of These Things Is Not Like The Other. (graph)

• "We Can't Do This Forever," Fed Admits "Market Will Overwhelm Us". The market forces are going to overwhelm us. We’re not going to be able to hold the line anymore. And then you get that rapid snapback in premiums as the market realizes that central banks can’t do this forever. And that’s going to cause volatility and disruption.

• As China's Offshore Yuan Crashes To A 2 Year Low, Beijing Warns Its Citizens: "Don't Buy Dollars". (graph)

• The Fed Is Now Frontrunning Value Investors. (graph)

• "Obama Is Clueless On Inequality," David Stockman Rages "The Problem Is [The Fed]".

• The Death Of The American Dream In 22 Numbers.

• "It's Different This Time" GDP Hockey-Sticks Edition. (graph)

• 5 Things To Ponder: Ascending Contingencies.

• January Jitters Jolt Stocks - S&P Loses Key 2,000 Level; Bonds' Best Month Since June 2010. (graph)

• ECB Threatens Athens With Bank Funding Cutoff If No Deal In One Month: February 28 Is Now D-Day For Greece."

• Caught On Tape: Dijsselbloem To Varoufakis: "You Just Killed Troika." (video)

• The AAPL(AAPL) Effect: Q4 Earnings Growth Without Apple: 0%; With Apple: 2.1%.

• Greek Social Contagion: Tens Of Thousands Rally In Support Of Spain's Anti-Austerity Podemos Party.

• Market Calls Fed's Bluff - Desperation Becomes Palpable.

• The Future of Medicine? Forget Private Doctor Appointments, Group Medical Visits are Coming.

• 16% Of Global Government Bonds Now Have A Negative Yield: Here Is Who's Buying It.

• Nomi Prins: The Sinister Evolution Of Our Modern Banking System.

• Chinese Corruption Probe Pivots To Bankers As Manufacturing Contracts At Fastest Pace Since August 2012. (graph)

• Swiss National Bank Scraps Hard Franc Ceiling, Replaces With Soft Ceiling Instead Local Press Reports.

• Europe Fractures: France "Prepared To Support Greece" In Debt Renegotiations.

• Q1 Earnings Are Set For The Biggest Drop Since 2012. (graph)

• Ukraine "Truce"? Tanks Are Rolling In Poland As NATO Plans Permanent Eastern European Bases.

• The Euro Tragedy & Its Consequences For Gold.

Business Insider:

• Morgan Stanley(MS) thinks Russia's doomed.

• IBM(IBM) is giving its CEO a big bonus again despite the company's tumbling stock price.

• The measles outbreak that started at Disneyland is spreading to the general public.

• GARY SHILLING: Here Are 13 Big Investing Stories I Expect To Unfold This Year.

• Stocks fell in January for just the 8th time since 1929. The last seven times that happened, the rest of the year sucked.

• Here's a 3-way roadmap for the situation in Greece.

• The ECB and Germany are playing hardball with Greece.

• The Global Slowdown Is Making Asia's Debt Mountain Even Worse.

• Germany is done writing off Greece's debt.

• A huge winter storm in the Midwest is headed for the East Coast.

• Saudi Arabia Is Putting Aside Billions For Its Own Gas-Fracking Revolution.

• Wall Street prepared for bad news from the energy companies, but so far it's been worse than expected.

• China's Strict New Security Laws Are Bad News For Apple(AAPL).

• Thousands in Hong Kong march for democracy in the first major rally since mass protests last year.

• Boko Haram unleashes its third attack in a week on a key Nigerian city.

• January stunk for the stock market, and history says that's not a good sign for the rest of the year.

• China Has Escalated Internet Censorship To A New Level.

• Electric Cars Could Be In For A Rough 2015.

Financial Times:

• Ukraine appeals for military help in fight with pro-Russian rebels. Ukraine has appealed for urgent international military assistance to combat an “electronic warfare” offensive, which it said is giving pro-Russian rebels a critical advantage in the worsening conflict. Western nations have so far rebuffed Kiev’s calls for direct military assistance in the fight against Moscow-backed separatists in the east of the country.

• Eurozone alarm grows over Greek bailout brinkmanship. Eurozone officials are increasingly worried that Greece’s brinkmanship over its bailout will plunge the country into financial chaos after its finance minister said on Sunday that it would take up to four months to agree a “new contract” with creditors.

Telegraph:

• Europe's creditors play with 'political fire' in pushing Greece to the brink. "The creation of the euro was a terrible mistake but breaking it up would be an even bigger mistake. Anything could happen," warns former IMF bail-out chief.

Welt:

• Schaeuble Warns Tsipras Against a Debt Cut. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble says Greek govt should be wary of stocking further discussion about a possible debt cut, citing an interview. Rejects Greek demands for debt forgiveness. Warns against allowing the ECB bond buying program to ease reform pressure in Europe.

Boerse Online:

• Bundesbank's Nagel Warns Markets Growing Opaque. Financial markets are becoming increasingly fragmented and less democratic, especially as large banks resort to using dark pools, or private trading venues, citing Bundesbank board member Joachim Nagel as saying in Munich.

Weekend Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.75% to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.0 +3.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 71.25 +2.25 basis points.

• S&P 500 futures +.23%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (AVY)/.80

• (XOM)/1.34

• (PBI)/.51

• (SYY)/.41

• (TEN)/1.01

• (ADVS)/.37

• (APC)/.85

• (CLF)/.08

• (HIG)/.93

• (OI)/.46

• (RCII)/.61

• (S)/-.24

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for December is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in November.

• Personal Spending for December is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.6% gain in November.

• The PCE Core for December is estimated unch. versus unch. in November.

9:45 am EST

• Final Markit US Manufacturing PMI for January is estimated at 53.7 versus a prior estimate of 53.7.

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending for December is estimated to rise +.7% versus a -.3% decline in November.

• ISM Manufacturing for January is estimated to fall to 54.5 versus 55.5 in December.

• ISM Price Paid for January is estimated to rise to 39.8 versus 38.5 in December.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PMI report, UK PMI report, RBA rate decision and the Fed Vice Chair of Atlanta Bank speaking could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead by Bloomberg. 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on escalating Russia/Ukraine tensions, global growth fears, rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst, earnings concerns, yen strength and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.