Bear Radar

Style Underperformer: 

• Large-Cap Value -1.21%

Sector Underperformers: 

• 1) Homebuilders -3.36% 2) Airlines -3.11% 3) Road & Rail -2.71%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• ADC, OUTR, UNFI, LNDC, KMI, CEQP, CMG, BNED, GBT, NWL, XBIT, HRB, KEX, AB, BBL, PVH, TOL, BTI, LUV, RIO, DVN, CAVM, TCBI, HDS, FOR, KMT, CEQB, MCRN, NSC, FOR, ON, DF, GBT and JW/A

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 

• 1) EWW 2) MOS 3) NAV 4) TOL 5) XLB

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 

• 1) VALE 2) MS 3) XOM 4) FCX 5)PBR

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume 
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.11%

Sector Outperformers: 

• 1) Biotech +1.11% 2) Hospitals +.38% 3) Computer Hardware -.11%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: 

• FCS, MPLX, PLCE, EFUT, ZAGG, NGLS, PAA, ETE, TRGP, WPZ, PDCE, ETP and FCS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 

• 1) TSN 2) RMD 3) DLTR 4) POST 5) SWHC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 

• 1) FEYE 2) AZO 3) COST 4) SWHC 5)MFRM

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +15.2% Above 100-Day Average
• 1 Sector Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 33.8% of Issues Advancing, 63.5% Declining
• 13 New 52-Week Highs, 332 New Lows
• 35.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 40.1
• Vix 16.9 +6.9%
• Total Put/Call 1.26 +24.8%
• TRIN/Arms 1.38 +26.5%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:

• China Exports Fall for Fifth Month, Import Slump Continues. China’s exports fell for a fifth month and a slump in imports extended to a record 13 months as trade slows along with the world’s second-largest economy. Overseas shipments dropped 3.7 percent in November in yuan terms from a year earlier, the customs administration said Tuesday. That compared to the 3.6 percent fall in October. Imports declined 5.6 percent in yuan terms, leaving a trade surplus of 343.1 billion yuan ($53.5 billion). The import slowdown is also a drag on other nations as China’s flagging industrial plants need less raw materials while robust consumer demand hasn’t picked up fast enough to offset those declines. "Global demand is staying around the bottom, just like China’s domestic economy," said Hu Yuexiao, an economist at Shanghai Securities Co. "We will still see tepid trade next year with a big trade surplus."   
• Singapore Builders Overleveraged, Underachieving as Debt Matures. Singapore’s builders are entering 2016 with another wall of debt coming due, falling confidence and declining earnings. After a record S$9.6 billion ($6.8 billion) of bonds were repaid this year, the industry faces S$6.4 billion of maturities next year, S$2.3 billion in 2017 and S$7.4 billion in 2018, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. Contractors Ley Choon Group Holdings Ltd. and Swee Hong Ltd. are restructuring their debt with lenders, while Tat Hong Holdings Ltd. is asking bondholders to ease financial covenants in its July 2018 notes, according to stock exchange filings. Five Singapore home builders classified by Bloomberg have an average debt-to-equity ratio of 48 times.
• Won Weakens to Two-Month Low as Plunge in Oil Deters Risk-Taking. The won fell to a two-month low as an overnight plunge in oil prices deterred risk-taking and raised the prospect of more outflows from South Korean shares. Saudi Arabia, the world’s top producer of the commodity, was the biggest seller of South Korean stocks in September and October, according to Financial Supervisory Service data. Foreign funds net sold the equities on Tuesday and have pulled $2.3 billion from them this quarter.
• Ringgit Slides With Oil as Najib Flags $7 Billion Shortfall. Malaysia’s ringgit halted a three-day gain as Brent crude fell to a six-year low, damping the outlook for the nation’s finances just as Prime Minister Najib Razak flagged a 30 billion ringgit ($7 billion) revenue shortfall in 2016 due to oil. The currency dropped 0.9 percent to 4.2517 a dollar as of 10:04 a.m. in Kuala Lumpur, after climbing 0.4 percent in the previous three days, according to data from local banks compiled by Bloomberg.
• China Stocks Extend Losses After Trade Data as Oil Shares Slide. Chinese stocks dropped after trade data signaled a deepening slowdown in the nation’s economy and sinking oil prices dragged on energy producers. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1.5 percent to 3,483.16 at 10:07 a.m. local time, with eight stocks falling for every one gaining.
• Asian Stocks Fall Before China Trade Data as Energy Shares Drop. Asian stocks fell ahead of China trade data after oil tumbled to a six-year low, weighing on energy producers and sending BHP Billiton Ltd. to its lowest in 10 years. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.3 percent to 131.79 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo, with energy and material companies leading declines among the measure’s 10 industry groups. The gauge is on course to drop 4.4 percent this year, its first back-to-back annual losses since 2002, as a 24 percent collapse in the Bloomberg Commodity Index in 2015 weighs on resource producers and Chinese economic growth decelerates. American crude sank past $38 a barrel to its lowest level since 2009 after OPEC abandoned its strategy of limiting production.
• Iron Ore in the $30s Seen Near Tipping Point for Largest Miners. Iron ore’s tumble into the $30s threatens the world’s biggest miners as prices approach break-even costs, according to Capital Economics Ltd. Shares of BHP Billiton Ltd. fell to the lowest in 10 years. The most expensive operations at the four largest suppliers are on the verge of making losses at rates below $40 a metric ton, said John Kovacs, senior commodities economist at Capital Economics in London, who estimates their break-even levels at $28 to $39, taking into account freight and other costs. While these producers will keep output strong, they’ll be constrained by low prices, he said by e-mail on Monday.

Wall Street Journal:

• Both San Bernardino Shooters Were ‘Radicalized,’ FBI Says. Officials also pointed to evidence of planning in the attack. The shooters in last week’s massacre here had been radicalized for “some time” and methodically prepared for the attack, the Federal Bureau of Investigation said Monday, adding that it is still sifting clues to determine whether the couple received assistance from Islamist extremist groups or acted alone.
• Tashfeen Malik Attended Strict Religious School in Pakistan. (video) Tashfeen Malik​​​, one of two suspected shooters in last week's San Bernardino killings, was educated in a women-only madrassa in Pakistan, as well as a Pakistani university.
• Despite Clampdown on Foreign Fighters, Extremists Ranks Swelling, Study Finds. Number of fighters from North America steady but number from Western Europe more than doubled since 2014, report says. 
• Donald Trump Calls for Ban on Muslim Entry Into U.S. Announcement comes hours after poll of Iowa Republicans shows Trump trailing Sen. Ted Cruz. Donald Trump evoked outrage from across the political spectrum Monday by calling for a “total and complete shutdown” of Muslims entering the U.S., a proposal that taps into voter anxiety about the recent spate of terrorist attacks yet likely runs afoul of religious freedoms enshrined in the Constitution.
• Chinese Companies Are Trapped in IPO Logjam. Government’s tight grip and stock-market crash leave about 675 companies waiting to sell $63 billion in stock; suitcases stuffed with documents.
• Energy Sector Rout Intensifies on Mild Weather, OPEC. Some of the heaviest declines are in shares of companies with heavy debt loads. Oil prices fell to their lowest point in seven years Monday, hammering energy industry stocks as many investors bet that heavily indebted producers, having weathered months of low commodity prices, are now at greater risk of going out of business.
• The Liberal Theology of Gun Control. Guns are what you talk about to avoid having to talk about Islamist terrorism. How does a man who entered the White House vowing to restore science to its proper place tell us that gun control is the answer to terrorism? After all, California already has strict gun control, as does France, which just had its second terrorist massacre this year. Not to mention that the one time when terrorists with assault rifles and body armor were foiled, it was because an off-duty traffic cop in Garland, Texas, was carrying...
• Fighting Terror by Self-Reproach. How did we become a country more afraid of causing offense than playing defense? Nobody who watched Barack Obama’s speech Sunday night outlining his strategy to defeat Islamic State could have come away disappointed by the performance. Disappointment presupposes hope for something better. That ship sailed, and sank, a long time ago.

Fox News:

• Terror couple's bombs were set to kill first responders. (video) Bombs left at a Southern California social services facility by the gun-wielding radical Muslim couple who killed 14 and wounded 21 were set to go off when first responders arrived, Fox News learned on Monday, in a vicious strategy often seen in the Middle East. None of the pipe bombs left at the Inland Regional Center in San Bernardino by Syed Farook and Tashfeen Malik in Wednesday's attack detonated, but the technique has investigators very concerned, sources told Fox News.
• Iran tests another mid-range ballistic missile in breach of UN resolutions. (video) Iran has carried out a new medium range ballistic missile test in breach of two United Nations Security Council resolutions, a senior U.S. official told Fox News on Monday. Western intelligence says the test was held Nov. 21 near Chabahar, a port city in southeast Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan Province near the border with Pakistan.  The launch took place from a known missile test site along the Gulf of Oman.

MarketWatch.com:

• Deteriorating junk bonds flash warning signs for stocks. Credit spreads widen, defaults in 2015 rise twofold from 2014. As the number of defaults and downgrades rise to levels last seen in 2009, a deteriorating credit market will pose a threat to U.S. stocks, according to equity-strategy analysts at J.P. Morgan.

Zero Hedge: 

• China Trade Plunges, Yuan Tumbles Near Lowest Level In 4 Years. (graph)
• China "Disappears" More Bank Executives As Witch Hunt Intensifies.
• China Chokes As Beijing Issues "Red Pollution Alert" For First Time Ever. (pic)
• Amid FX Reserve Liquidation, These Are The Countries JP Morgan Says Are Most Vulnerable. (graph)
• The One Chart The Proves How The Fed Singlehandedly Doubled The Stock Market Since 1997. (graph)
• Weimar Greece - The Effects Of A Currency Collapse.
• The Latest Revolving Door Farce: Bernanke, Trichet And Gordon Brown To Form Pimco Advisory Board.
• Oil, Gold, & The Reflation-Deflation Battle.
• Buy-And Hold? - In 8 Years, Developed Market Stocks Have Gained Nothing. (graph)
• Why Diversification Is For Losers. (graph)
• Traders Buy Bonds & Guns, Dump Stocks & Credit As Crude Crashes To 7-Year Lows. (graph)

Business Insider: 

• Russia appears to have 'gone ballistic' in Syria — and it may be helping ISIS.
• LeBron James just signed the biggest endorsement deal in Nike history.
• Trucking demand is a lot worse than imagined. Slack demand and sudden overcapacity.
• Boston College warns students to avoid Chipotle after a 'veritable epidemic' sickens athletes.
• This is how much debt the average American has.

Reuters:

• CANADA FX DEBT-C$ hits new 11-year low on oil slump, Fed outlook.

Telegraph:

• Euro regime is working like a charm for France's Marine Le Pen. Marine Le Pen swept 55pc of the working class vote, stealing the Socialist base from under their noses with radical Left policies.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.50% to -.50% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.5 +1.75 basis points.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 70.0 +1.5 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.71 -.04%.
• S&P 500 futures -.50%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.53%.

Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

• (AZO)/8.24
• (CBK)/-.01
• (HDS)/.65
• (JW/A)/.81
• (PLCE)/1.92
• (TOL)/.84
• (AVAV)/-.10
• (ALOG)/.55
• (COST)/1.17
• (PLAY)/.03
• (KKD)/.20
• (OXM)/-.09
• (SWHC)/.20  

Economic Releases
6:00 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for November is estimated to rise to 96.4 versus 96.1 in October. 

10:00 am EST

• JOLTS Job Openings for October are estimated to fall to 5500 versus 5526 in September.
• The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for December is estimated to fall to 45.1 versus 45.5 in November.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China inflation data, UK industrial production report, $24B 3Y T-Note auction, US weekly retail sales reports, Goldman Sachs Financial Services conference, Oppenheimer Healthcare conference, Wells Fargo Energy Symposium, Barclays Tech/Media/Telecom conference, (EW) investor conference, (LLL) investor conference and the (HD) analyst conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Global Growth Fears, Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Decline, Commodity/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.76 +13.17%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.73 -.13%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.48 -1.04%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.64 +3.25%

• ISE Sentiment Index 76.0 -26.92%

• Total Put/Call 1.01 +13.48%

• NYSE Arms 1.12 +19.50% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 83.66 +1.43%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,418.0 +5.48%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.68 -1.15%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 17.01 -4.06%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 69.0 +.80%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 344.85 +2.51%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 123.89 +.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 11.50 +1.50 basis points

• TED Spread 24.75 +1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -33.5 +1.75 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.01 -.81%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .24% +3.0 basis points

• Yield Curve 129.0 -4.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $39.06/Metric Tonne -2.42%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -24.30 +1.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 16.70 -2.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.0 -1.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.58 -5.0 basis points
• # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 1.61 n/a

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +17 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -234 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/retail/tech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• Nomura: If You Thought This Year Was Volatile in Asia, Just Wait Until 2016. The storm isn't over. While 2015 has brought about a number of challenges for Asian economies, Nomura says investors shouldn't expect the region's troubles to recede anytime soon. In fact, things might just get worse. "The choppy seas we foresaw in 2015 are likely to get choppier in 2016," Nomura's Chief Economist for Asia ex-Japan Rob Subbaraman and his team said in a note. "We forecast Asia-ex Japan GDP growth to slow further to 5.7 percent in 2016. That would be its slowest pace since 1998, heightening the already non-trivial risk of credit crunches."
• Rousseff Ups Defense as Brazil Congress Haggles Over Impeachment. Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff on Monday stepped up efforts to protect her mandate as legislators choose members of a committee that will recommend whether to impeach her. The full lower house of Congress is scheduled to vote Monday evening whether to accept the 65 members of the committee who are nominated by party leaders. The committee will hear Rousseff’s defense and make a recommendation whether the full house should back accusations against her and allow the Senate to try her on charges she broke Brazil’s fiscal law. She denies wrongdoing.
• Le Pen's National Front result points to third way in France. Marine Le Pen's victory in the first round of France's regional elections suggests that voters have moved beyond a rejection of the mainstream parties to embrace her party's nationalist and anti-immigration policies. That shift toward acceptability for Le Pen's National Front opens the way to a three-party system in France, making it tougher for Socialist President Francois Hollande and his Republican rival Nicolas Sarkozy to claw their way back. "Voters have begun to see the National Front as an alternative to the Republicans or the Socialists, as a third way," said Yves-Marie Cann, head of political research at Elabe polling institute in Paris. "While there is an element of protest in choosing the National Front, some French people are looking for politicians who respond to their demands on the economy, security, immigration and identity -- anti-Islam in the main."  
• Germany Struggles With Nearly One Million New Refugees in 2015. The number of asylum seekers making their way to Germany this year approached one million as Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government struggles to shelter and register the influx of migrants fleeing war and poverty. The number of registered asylum seekers rose to about 965,000 by the end of November, exceeding the government’s full-year forecast from August of 800,000, Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere told reporters in Berlin Monday. Double registrations would likely reduce that number, though de Maiziere declined to give another full-year estimate.
• German October Industry Output Rises, Below Expectations. German industrial production rose less than economists predicted in October amid a slump in energy output. Output, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, rose 0.2 percent from September, when it declined 1.1 percent, data from the Economy Ministry in Berlin showed on Monday. The reading, which tends to be volatile, is the first positive one in three months and compares with a median estimate for a 0.8 percent gain in a Bloomberg survey of economists. 
• Dollar Traders Give Yellen Green Light as Fed Rate Meeting Nears. The dollar’s biggest weekly loss since May just made it a little easier for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The greenback’s tumble from a 12-year high removes one of the last stumbling blocks for officials contemplating how to navigate their first rate increase in almost a decade. As the specter of liftoff looms, options suggest traders are the least concerned in four months about dollar strength versus the euro. Hedge funds and other large speculators reduced bets on dollar gains for the first time in six weeks in the period through Dec. 1, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.   
• Europe Shares Rebound as Investors Consider Draghi Rout Overdone. (video) European stocks advanced after their worst week since August as investors considered the European Central Bank-induced slide overdone. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.5 percent higher, its biggest increase since Nov. 26. The equity benchmark pared earlier gains of as much as 1.6 percent as a slide in oil prices dragged energy companies lower.
• Oil Staying at $40 Would Stall Russian Recovery, Ulyukayev Says. Any Russian economic rebound would stall if oil prices stay at $40 a barrel, even if such an outcome wouldn’t create “risks” for the banking industry or the budget, Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said.
• OPEC Unshackled From Quota Could Add Millions of Barrels. (video) OPEC’s new free-for-all production stance could lift the lid on millions of barrels of additional crude supply next year. “Everyone does whatever they want” now that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has effectively abandoned its formal production target, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said after the group met on Friday. What Iran wants is to revive exports by about 1 million barrels a day when sanctions are removed next year. It’s not the only member with potential to swell the global oil surplus, with millions of barrels of capacity lying unused under the sands of Saudi Arabia and Libya. “It means more OPEC oil next year,” Jamie Webster, a Washington-based oil analyst for IHS Inc., said of the organization’s Dec. 4 decision. “OPEC is not cutting. With Iran looming, as well as largely only upside risk for Libya, the smart money is on more, and not less, production.”
• OPEC's Oil Market Disarray Looks Like 1990s Slump All Over Again. (video) OPEC has seemingly dropped any attempt at trying to fulfill its founding mission and manage the global oil market. For Saudi Arabia’s Ali al-Naimi, the most powerful and longest-serving of the group’s oil ministers, it may have seemed like history was repeating itself. There are several striking parallels between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ current situation and the period from 1997 to 1999, when the group lost control of the market and oil slipped to less than $10 a barrel. While investors may wonder whether markets will follow a similar trajectory this time, it’s important to remember that OPEC emerged from the crisis to see oil prices surge all the way to almost $150 a barrel. If the parallels hold, markets could be in for a wild ride.   
• Iron Ore Joins Oil's Move Lower in Commodity Slump. (video) 
• Iron Ore Nearing Rio's `Fantasy Land' Shows Depth of Turmoil. When Rio Tinto Group’s Sam Walsh, head of the world’s second-biggest iron-ore exporter, was asked 10 months ago whether the steelmaking raw material could reach $30 a metric ton, he derided it as impossible. “That’s fantasy land -- it simply can’t happen,” Walsh, 65, said in a February interview with Bloomberg Television. “There are very wild forecasts out there that quite frankly just can’t come to pass, otherwise it’s going to be very lonely for us as the lowest-cost producer in the world.”
• Smith & Wesson(SWHC) Soars to Highest Since 2007 on Gun Control Talk. Smith & Wesson Holding Corp. jumped to its highest level in eight years and Sturm Ruger & Co. also soared on investor expectations that gun enthusiasts will purchase more pistols and rifles as calls for restrictions increase. The gunmakers’ shares have seen gains in recent years in the wake of mass shootings like the one in California last week that have led to stepped-up efforts to restrict ownership. Both companies also have seen sales rise in response to politicians’ demands for tougher legislation. Those efforts have all fizzled. Smith & Wesson, whose brands also include M&P and Thompson/Center Arms, surged 7.4 percent to $20.39 at 12:02 p.m. in New York after reaching $20.62, the highest intraday price since October 2007.
• Staples(SPLS) Drops After U.S. Moves to Challenge Office Depot(ODP) Deal. Staples Inc. fell the most in over a year after the U.S. said it would challenge the office supply chain’s proposed takeover of Office Depot Inc., the second time in 20 years that antitrust officials said the tie-up would squelch competition and should be blocked. 
• Icahn Tops Bridgestone With $15.50-a-Share Bid for Pep Boys(PBY).
• Electrolux Drops After GE(GE) Pulls $3.3 Billion Appliance Deal. (video) Electrolux AB fell the most in more than four years after General Electric Co. abandoned plans to sell its appliance business to the Swedish manufacturer for about $3.3 billion because of opposition from U.S. antitrust regulators.

CNBC:

• Cashin: Weak transports not a good sign. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• Beware The "Massive Stop Loss" - JPM's Head Quant Warns This Unexpected Downside Catalyst Looms Next Week. (graph)
• "Where Is The Bubble Today?" - Stifel Explains. (graph)
• China's FX Reserves Fall By Third Most On Record As Outflows Persist. (graph)
• Bloomberg Commodity Index Crashes To 16-Year Low - 22% Below 2009 Trough. (graph)
• "Outing" The Over-Confidence Of Our Central Bank Overlords.
• Apple(AAPL) "Faces Risk Of Inventory Correction": Three Channel Checks Confirm Deteriorating iPhone Sales.
• How One "Lucky" Options Trader Made A 60,000% Return Over The Weekend. (graph)
• In NYT Op-Ed, Hillary Lays Out How She'd "Rein In Wall Street" (And No, Not By Demanding Even More Donations).
• Is OPEC Losing Influence?
• Is The Fed Finally Being Forced To Consider Main Street? (graph)
• Hedge Funds Sitting On $1 Billion Loss As "Most Hated Name" Keurig Acquired At 78% Premium For $92. (graph)
• EUR Slides Below 1.08 After Goldman Raises EUR Forecast.

Business Insider: 

• We may be witnessing the downfall of an international political revolution.
• Morgan Stanley(MS) has some answering to do. Morgan Stanley is set to make deep cuts to a key trading division — and investors are trying to figure out what's going on.
• Chinese banks are using a ridiculously simple trick to limit the number of bad loans on their books.
• This map shows ISIS' expanding reach across Europe. (map)
• A poll just found Ted Cruz surging past Donald Trump in Iowa.
• A bunch of OPEC members are 'at risk for a significant crisis in 2016'.
• The smog in Beijing is so bad that the government just issued its first ever red alert. (pic)
• Leaked documents show how ISIS is building its state.
• RAOUL PAL: A key indicator is flashing red ― and it means there's a 65% chance of a global recession.
• HSBC: This is what a doom loop looks like in China.

The Hill:

• ISIS has targeted refugee program to enter US, chairman says. Intelligence officials have determined that Islamic extremists have explored using the refugee program to enter the United States, the head of the House Homeland Security Committee said on Monday. Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) declined to go into detail about the determination, which the Obama administration has not announced publicly. Yet the disclosure could add ammunition to critics of the White House’s refugee plans who have warned that the program is vulnerable to infiltration by adherents of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). “ISIS members in Syria have attempted to exploit it to get into the United States,” McCaul said during a speech at the National Defense University on Monday. “The U.S. government has information to indicate that individuals tied to terrorist groups in Syria have already attempted to gain access to our country through the U. S. refugee program.”

Caixin:

• China Jan.-Nov. National Rail Cargo Volume Falls 11.6%. Cargo volume at national rail roads was 2.49b tons in Jan.-Nov., citing data from China Railway Corp.