Saturday, December 12, 2015

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 
  • Commodity Shares Rout Leads S&P 500 to Biggest Drop in 2 Months. (video) The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell the most in more than two months amid a deepening retreat in commodities, and as investors prepare for next week’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Equities extended a weekly selloff as crude dropped to the lowest level since 2008 in London on expectations for a continuing supply glut. A measure of volatility jumped more than 60 percent this week, the most since August. DuPont Co. and Dow Chemical Co. slipped at least 2.8 percent after jointly announcing the largest-ever chemical industry merger. The S&P 500 dropped 1.9 percent to 2,012.37 at 4 p.m. in New York, posting its first weekly drop in four and its worst since August. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 309.54 points, or 1.8 percent, to 17,265.21. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 2.2 percent. About 8.3 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, 16 percent above the three-month average. “I think there’s a lot of uncertainty with global growth that is just factoring into the year-end positioning,” said Kevin Kelly, the New York-based chief investment officer at Recon Capital Partners. “We’ve seen a broad-based selloff today. There’s nowhere to hide out there and that’s why this is so brutal. It seems like a redux of August when the Chinese actually devalued their currency in anticipation of a Fed rate hike and stronger dollar.”  
  • Junk Bonds Are Tanking and Icahn Says Meltdown `Just Beginning'. (video) A day after a prominent Wall Street firm shocked investors by freezing withdrawals from a credit mutual fund, things only got nastier in the junk-bond market. Prices on the high-risk securities sank to levels not seen in six years and, to add to the growing sense of alarm, billionaire investor Carl Icahn said the selloff is only starting. “The meltdown in High Yield is just beginning," Icahn, who’s been betting against the high-yield market, wrote on his verified Twitter account Friday. Icahn’s comments come as junk-bond investors, already stung by the worst losses since 2008, are the most nervous they’ve been in three years after Third Avenue Management took the rare step of freezing withdrawals from a $788 million credit mutual fund. The risk premium on the Markit CDX North American High Yield Index, a credit-default swaps benchmark tied to the debt of 100 speculative-grade companies, rose 36 basis points to 514.52 basis points, the highest since December 2012. BlackRock’s iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF, the largest fund of its kind, fell to the lowest levels since 2009. 
  • Barclays Model of China New Yuan Index Shows Pain Far From Over. (graph) China’s efforts to shift the world’s attention away from the yuan-dollar exchange rate to a broader-based index is a sign to traders that the currency’s decline versus the greenback has just begun. A Barclays Plc index with similar components to the new gauge shows just how far the yuan has left to fall. A unit of the People’s Bank of China announced a new yuan index Friday, composed of 13 currencies, to “help bring about a shift in how the public and the market observe RMB exchange rate movements,” according to a central bank statement. Barclays’s yuan trade-weighted index shows the currency’s depreciation against the dollar this year has been offset by gains versus other trading partners, such as Europe and South Korea, giving scope for the Chinese currency to plunge further. 
  • China Steel Output Slumps to a One-Year Low as Prices Collapse. Steelmakers in China reined in production last month as prices collapsed and the onset of winter in the largest producer curbed demand already hurt by a cooling economy. Crude steel output fell 1.6 percent to 63.32 million metric tons from a year earlier, according to data from the statistics bureau released Saturday. So far this year, production has dropped 2.2 percent to 738.38 million tons. China makes about half of the world’s steel.
  • Third Avenue's Now-Frozen Fund Called Liquidity Fears a ‘Myth’. (video) Third Avenue Management LLC rattled credit markets this week when it said that a lack of liquidity had forced it to halt redemptions in its junk-bond mutual fund. Not so long ago, the fund was telling investors that concerns about illiquidity in these markets were a “myth.” The firm’s Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund, with investments in high-yield debt and bank loans, keeps excess cash on hand, lead manager Thomas Lapointe wrote in a 2012 investor commentary reviewed by Bloomberg News. The fund would also remain small enough -- with assets under $3 billion -- to stay nimble in building and liquidating positions, he wrote. The fund had $3.5 billion in assets in the quarter ended June 2014, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, before falling back below $3 billion in assets by the end of that year. 
  • Leveraged ETFs Face SEC Squeeze in Plan to Rein in Derivatives. U.S. regulators have declared war on the $32 billion leveraged ETF industry. A proposal issued Friday by the Securities and Exchange Commission could handicap a product that has drawn warnings from BlackRock Inc.’s Laurence Fink and Wall Street’s brokerage regulator, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. Built like mutual funds, leveraged exchange traded funds managed by companies such as ProShare Advisors LLC and Direxion use derivatives that produce daily gains or losses that can be three times greater than an index they track, such as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. If eventually approved as a final rule, the SEC’s plan might render some of those strategies unworkable by capping the leverage such funds can derive from derivatives at 150 percent of their net assets. It would also force them to hold a lot more cash to cover potential losses.
  • Cruz Soars to Front of the Pack in Iowa Poll; Trump Support Stays Flat. Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa survey also brings no joy to Ben Carson or Jeb Bush.
 Wall Street Journal: Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (MU), (GWW), (XL), (OAK), (ATU), (FMC), (FOSL), (M), (JWN), (RL) and (BURL).
  • Had bearish commentary on (KMI).
MarketWatch.com:
Fox News: 
  • 'A turning point for the world': Obama praises global climate change pact in White House address. (video) President Obama hailed the approval of a far-reaching global climate accord to limit greenhouse gas emissions adopted Saturday in Paris, in a statement from the White House Cabinet Room Saturday afternoon. Praising the pact as a ‘turning point for the world,’ Obama commended leaders from more than 190 countries for working together “to show what is possible when the world stands as one.”
CNBC: 
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
Telegraph:

Friday, December 11, 2015

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 2,012.37 -3.79%*

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The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
  • S&P 500 2,012.37 -3.79%
  • DJIA 17,265.21 -3.26%
  • NASDAQ 4,933.46 -4.06%
  • Russell 2000 1,123.61 -5.05%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 28.96 -6.57%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 100.88 -5.49
  • Wilshire 5000 20,783.50 -3.92%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 987.33 -3.61%
  • Russell 1000 Value 947.36 -4.1%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 505.11 -1.98%
  • Solactive US Cyclical 122.79 -4.75%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 1,076.23 -4.13%
  • Transports 7,524.64 -5.41%
  • Utilities 551.13 -1.79%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 95.62 -6.04%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 32.02 -4.17%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,153.19 -.79%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,039.68 -.22%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 229,335 -1.17%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -604 -215
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 26.5 unch.
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 197,874 -5.09%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,713,573 +3.15%
  • Total Put/Call 1.07 +20.2%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.81 +30.2%
  • ISE Sentiment 50.0 -51.92%
  • NYSE Arms 1.52 +61.70%
  • Volatility(VIX) 24.39 +64.68%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 61.08 +9.60%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.38 +4.2%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.59 +9.5%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 17,830.16 +.70%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.754 Trillion +.46%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$7.976 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 28.5 -3.3%
  • AAII % Bears 29.9 +41.0%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 174.86 -4.58%
  • Crude Oil 35.22 -11.93%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 127.38 -.81%
  • Natural Gas 1.99 -9.47%
  • Heating Oil 113.86 -15.26%
  • Gold 1,074.70 -1.04%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 136.09 +.1%
  • Copper 210.95 +1.42%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 139.83 USD/Ton +.60%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 38.30 USD/Ton -4.32%
  • Lumber 260.80 +3.49%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,047.72 -2.88%
Economy
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -.8% +40.0 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0408 n/a
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 126.02 +.06%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -22.30 +3.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 17.30 -1.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 15.60 +3.5 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 28.0% chance of no change, 72.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 12/16
  • # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) .88 -46.34%
  • US Dollar Index 97.56 -.68%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,462.92 -1.15%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.83 -.79%
  • Yield Curve 126.0 -7.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.13% -14.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.442 Trillion +.04%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 19.50 -4.88%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 285.0 +2.1%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 16.96 -4.34%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 78.57 +14.79%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 183.30 +10.65%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 79.39 +.98%
  • Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 851.57 +2.04%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 306.92 +9.39%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 123.44 -.35%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.48% -15.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 24.75 +1.0 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 10.50 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -36.75 -1.5 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 91.13 +10.4%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,585.0 +17.42%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 76.55 +7.93%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 372.08 +10.68%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 130.0 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $3.101 Trillion -.42%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,036.0 -.60%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 270,750 +1,500
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.7% +10.0 basis points
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.95% +2.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 424.10 +1.24%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 40.1 +.5 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +1.90% unch.
  • Nationwide Gas $2.01/gallon -.04
  • Baltic Dry Index 534.0 -5.15%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 712.58 -.83%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 52.50 +5.0%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 270,276 +23.15%
Best Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth -3.6%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value -5.2%
Leading Sectors
  • HMOs -.4%
  • Restaurants -1.6%
  • Utilities -1.8%
  • Foods -2.0%
  • Medical Equipment -2.1%
Lagging Sectors
  • Banks -6.2% 
  • Construction -6.3%
  • Energy -7.2%
  • I-Banks -7.5%
  • Oil Tankers -12.2%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (15)
  • GMCR, VRA, XBIT, RLYP, SWHC, AVAV, AXDX, RGR, CARA, LC, HPY, NWL, PLAY, CENT and DOW
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (23)
  • COO, UNFI, LNDC, UMBF, TOL, FTI, IDT, MIC, ALNY, LOB, HRB, TRGP, LTXB, KMI, MEI, FOR, GWR, DYN, CIEN, BLUE, MW, OUTR and GBT
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling Substantially Midday on Surging European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Emerging Markets Currency Fears, Oil Decline, Financial/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.36 +15.62%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.01 +.02%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.92 n/a
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.1 +1.36%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 41.0 -34.92%
  • Total Put/Call 1.0 -18.03%
  • NYSE Arms 1.17 +75.91
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 91.98 +4.60%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,574.0 +.99%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 79.0 +7.75%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 16.83 +2.37%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 77.52 +6.04%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 354.60 +3.64%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 123.44 -.15%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 10.0 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 24.75 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -36.50 +1.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.11 -.77%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .22% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 125.0 -4.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $38.30/Metric Tonne -.57%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -22.30 +1.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 17.30 +1.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 15.60 +3.7 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.50 -3.0 basis points
  • # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) .88 n/a
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -460 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -289 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer: 
  • Small-Cap Growth -1.71%
Sector Underperformers: 
  • 1) Energy -3.17% 2) I-Banks -2.61% 3) Computer Hardware -2.43%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • BTI, ZIV, AGX, KOF, DD, FGP, BBL, NDSN, PTR, CHDN, WSTC, SYT, DMLP, NXRT, FLTX, PAM, CORR, KYN, PMC, DOW, GWR, CLMT, GME, MPLX, BUD, MITT, LPLA, AZPN, BPT, GWR, CLMT, FGP, KMI, GME, ATI, DD, JBLU, PCTY, MPLX, SXL, CRAY, OKE and PBYI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 
  • 1) EWT 2) XHB 3) EWC 4) EWY 5) JNK
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 
  • 1) VALE 2) KMI 3) CMG 4) CLVS 5) SPLS
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value -1.31%
Sector Outperformers: 
  • 1) Gold & Silver +1.26% 2) HMOs +.59% 3) REITs -.06%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: 
  • FNSR, EDE, WFM and NCS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 
  • 1) HSY 2) WFM 3) ADBE 4) TERP 5) AVP
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 
  • 1) FNSR 2) EA 3) ADBE 4) WFM 5) SCVL
Charts: