Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -2.9%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Biotech -4.7% 2) Semis -4.5% 3) Oil Service -4.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ALKS, ALNY, SNX, ITCI, LFIN, TSLA, LYV, LX, TUSK, WPX and LKSD

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CHK 2) LB 3) LFIN 4) SYMC 5) DUST

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ALKS 2) VRTV 3) ALNY 4) FIT 5) ENR

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.8% 2) Coal +.4% 3) Steel +.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MNOV, BIS, ALNA, HUM, RCKT, CVLT, AOI, NEWA, AAT, SOHU, ASUR, RNST, PLSE, SAIC, SGH, SGRY, MCD, UNH, MED, RTEC, KE, CLXT and USNA

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) XHB 2) DISCA 3) NBR 4) MAR 5) XPO

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MNOV 2) LLNW 3) ACXM 4) STZ 5) EGLE

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -21.9% Below 100-Day Average
• 1 Sector Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
• 27.9% of Issues Advancing, 69.0% Declining
• 13 New 52-Week Highs, 36 New Lows
• 40.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 45.6%
• Vix 21.9 +9.8%
• Total Put/Call 1.05 +11.7%
• TRIN/Arms 1.29 +50.2%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China's Manufacturing PMI Posts 1st Increase Since Nov. (video)

• Asian Stocks Set for Muted Start to Second Quarter. Asian shares are set for a muted open as the first trading day of the second quarter begins. Volumes are expected to be subdued as many markets across the world remain closed for the Easter holiday. Futures on the Nikkei 225 index were little changed Monday morning. The yen edged lower even as a poll showed improved support for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s cabinet. Chinese stock futures were also flat ahead of purchasing managers data. The dollar drifted and West Texas crude oil steadied around $65 per barrel. Nikkei 225 futures were little changed.

Wall Street Journal:

• Climate Alarmists May Inherit the Wind. They likened a courtroom ‘tutorial’ to the Scopes Monkey Trial. But their side got schooled.

• Track the Markets: Winners and Losers. Compare the performance of selected global stock indexes, bond ETFs, currencies and commodities. 

• These Developing Countries Are Getting Old Before They Get Rich, With Dire Consequences. Mix of more retirees, fewer workers to support each one, leaves budgets of countries such as Brazil with little money to invest in growth or basic services.

• No Rent, Cheap Flights, $100 Art: How One Hedge Fund Keeps Costs Low. Devet Capital’s model has helped the small fund survive in a sector where fund closures have outnumbered new launches for the past three years.

MarketWatch.com:

• Tesla(TSLA) bankrupt? Elon Musk cracks jokes after worst month in 7 years.

• IPO proceeds hit 3-year high in first quarter, fueled by foreign companies’ offerings.

Fox News:

• London murder rate beats New York for month as stabbings surge.

CNBC: 

• Why Walmart(WMT) may have designs on Humana(HUM), and what it thinks it could get from a deal.

• College student cryptominers are finding it harder to turn a profit as costs rise, bitcoin falls.

Zero Hedge:

• The History Of US Trade Policy In One Annotated Chart.

• Chinese Space Station Set To Enter Earth's Atmosphere At Any Moment: Live Tracker. (map)

• China Slaps Tariffs On US Imports Including Pork, Nuts And Wine.

• "No More DACA Deal" Trump Booms, "Must Go Nuclear" As "Refugee Caravan" Approaches.

• Cryptogeddon - Bitcoin Breaks Below $7,000; Ether Down 75% From Highs.

• Why WSJ Insists Trump's Crackdown Against Amazon Would Be "A Long Shot" .

• US Power Grid Vulnerable To "Devastating" Attack, NERC Finds.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.0 -1.25 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 13.25 -.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.37 +.03%. 

• FTSE 100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.26%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.48%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

• (CALM)/1.38

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for February is estimated to rise +.3% versus unch. in January.

• ISM Manufacturing for March is estimated to fall to 60.0 versus 60.8 in February.

• ISM Prices Paid for March is estimated to fall to 72.5 versus 74.2 in February.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Kashkari speaking, Japan Car Sales report and the (URBN) QTD sales update could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters. 
• Weekly Market Outlook by Yahoo. (video)
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as oil gains, bargain-hunting and technical buying offset trade war fears, Mueller probe worries and rising geopolitical tensions. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China Exports Shrug Off Talk of Trade War, Factory Gauge Surges. A gauge of activity at China’s manufacturers posted its first gain since November, as factories recovered from a seasonal dip at the start of the year and export demand shrugged off threats of a trade war. The manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 51.5 in March versus the 50.6 estimate in Bloomberg’s survey and 50.3 last month. The non-manufacturing PMI, covering services and construction, stood at 54.6, the statistics bureau said Saturday, compared with 54.4 in February. Levels above 50 indicate improvement.
• How Facebook(FB) Helps Shady Advertisers Pollute the Internet.

Wall Street Journal:

• Israel Says Firing on Palestinian Protesters Was Justified. Demonstrations in the Gaza Strip continue with fewer numbers, a day after 15 Palestinians were killed, according to local authorities.
• Banks Forecast Gains for Crude Oil. Analysts raise their forecast amid draining crude inventories and rising geopolitical risks.

CNBC:

• Trump bashes Amazon(AMZN) 'scam,' claims post office loses 'billions' delivering packages for the internet retailer.
• Earnings season could stop the ‘bleeding’ on stock markets: Nuveen strategist.

Zero Hedge:

• Facebook(FB) In Turmoil: Employees In Uproar Over Executive's Leaked Memo.
• Tesla(TSLA) Admits Autopilot Was Engaged During Deadly Model X Crash.
• "Huge Caravan" Of Central American Refugees Is Headed For The U.S. Border.
• In Unprecedented Move, China Plans To Pay For Oil Imports With Yuan Instead Of Dollars.