Bull Radar

 Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.4% 2) Internet +1.0% 3) Homebuilding +.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• FSR, APPN, PLTR, WORK BCOV, JWN, VERI, RMG, ASPN, ANGO, RAD, LCA, FROG, BYSI, LE, MRNA, ATEC, LGVW, EGAN, RAPT, BALY and APXT
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GPS 2)  3) EHC 4) FIT 5) MDLZ

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) JWN 2) ADSK 3) KFY 4) FSR 5) ZS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Afternoon Market Internals

 NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +18.1% Above 100-Day Average
• 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 42.4% of Issues Advancing, 55.1% Declining
• 108 New 52-Week Highs, 1 New Lows
• 84.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 59.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,285.0 -18.0 points
• Vix 21.6 -.1%
• Total Put/Call .64 unch.
• TRIN/Arms .89 +25.4%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.75% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 59.0 -2.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 29.75 -2.5 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.0 +.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,355.0 +50.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.55 -.21%
• FTSE 100 futures +.76%.

• S&P 500 futures +.44%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.68%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (DE)/1.45
• (FRO)/.37
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 730K versus 742K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 6000K versus 6372K prior.
• The Advance Goods Trade Balance for Oct. is estimated at -$80.4B versus -$79.4B in Sept. 
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in Sept.
• Retail Inventories MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.6% gain in Sept.
• Durable Goods Orders for Oct. is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +1.9% gain in Sept.
• Durables Ex Transports for Oct. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.9% gain in Sept.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex Air for Oct. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.0% gain in Sept.
  

10:00 am EST

• Personal Income for Oct. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.9% gain in Sept.
• Personal Spending for Oct. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +1.4% gain in Sept.
• The PCE Core Deflator MoM for Oct. is estimated unch. versus a +.2% gain in Sept.
• New Home Sales for Oct. is estimated to rise to 975K versus 959K in Sept.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of+214,640 barrels versus a +769,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +732,180 barrels versus a +2,611,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate Inventories are estimated to fall by -2,527,360 barrels versus a -5,216,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.66% versus a +2.9% gain prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• Nov. 5 FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Mexico Retail Sales report and the weekly MBA Mortgage Application report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Vaccine Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Gain, Energy/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.96 -3.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,280.0 +171.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.64 +.36%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.23 -.68%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.37 +.65%

• ISE Sentiment Index 113.0 unch.
  

• Total Put/Call .60 -10.5%

• NYSE Arms .93 +36.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.27 -5.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 688.74 -1.93%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.18 -5.88%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 118.0 -3.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.66 -3.06%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 164.29 -3.22%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 179.31 +.05%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.5 +.5 basis point.

• TED Spread 12.5 -1.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.75 +3.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  73.50 -1.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 70.25 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.95 +.17%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 70.5 +1.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 125.45 USD/Metric Tonne -3.21%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 77.0 +1.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 110.2 +7.4 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 55.6 -1.7 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.73 +2.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +290 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +12 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +13 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On  gains in my industrial/tech/medical/consumer staple sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +59.1% Above 100-Day Average
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 78.9% of Issues Advancing, 19.5% Declining
• 267 New 52-Week Highs, 2 New Lows
• 82.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 57.5% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,281.0 +178.0 points
• Vix 22.0 -2.8%
• Total Put/Call .59 -11.9%
• TRIN/Arms .96 +41.2%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                                  

• World Economy Risks Buckling Into 2021 Despite Vaccine Nearing.  
• China Debt Defaults Set to Top 100 Billion Yuan for a Third Year.  
• These AAA-Rated Bonds Are Tumbling as China Default Fears Spread.  
• China’s Credit Stress Shines a Spotlight on Private Stock Deals.  
• SEC Pressures China Firms’ Listings, Warning of Accounting Risks.  
• Japan’s Large Investors May Be Cashing in on Global Stock Rally.
• Australia’s Sunshine State Is Opening Up in Time for Peak Season.  
• Vaccine May Halt Severe Cases; New Japan Measures: Virus Update.  
• Stocks Gain on Start of Formal Biden Power Shift: Markets Wrap.
• U.S.’s Oil-Crash Report Offers Few Answers for Wild Trading Day.
• Biden Picks John Kerry, Paris Accord Author, as Climate Czar.  
• Elon Musk Overtakes Bill Gates to Grab World’s Second-Richest Ranking.  
• Feinstein to Step Down as Top Democrat on Senate Judiciary.  
• JPMorgan Sees Possible $300 Billion Rebalancing Flow From Stocks.

Wall Street Journal:

• A Day in the Life of an Amazon Warehouse Worker.
• Biden’s Liberal Internationalists.
• A Heap of Thanksgiving Hypocrisy.
• Damaged Sense of Smell in Covid-19 Patients Holds Clues to How Recovery Might Work.
• BlackRock to Buy Equity-Index Provider Aperio for $1 Billion.
• York Capital Management to Largely Wind Down Hedge-Fund Operations.

Fox News: 

• Trump officially authorizes presidential transition, but there’s a catch.
• 3.1% of COVID cases traced to restaurants, bars: LA county data.
• Trump's ex-defense secretary wants Biden to reverse his policy.
  

CNBC.com:

• Almost no Trump voters consider Biden the 2020 election winner, poll says. 
• Doctors say CDC should warn people the side effects from Covid vaccine won’t be ‘a walk in the park’ .

MarketWatch.com:           

• Micron stock surges to highest prices since the dot-com boom as analysts see cloud demand improving.

Zero Hedge:

• Trump Tells GSA To Allow Biden Transition To Proceed "In The Best Interest Of Our Country".
• US Attorney Gives Antifa Pass On Rand Paul Attack After Refusing To Investigate.
• Pennsylvania Governor Bans Alcohol Sales On The Day Before Thanksgiving.
• Propaganda, Election Fraud, & The Death Of Journalism.
• Michigan Certifies Biden Victory As Republican Canvasser Folds.
• Central Banks To Add Liquidity Worth 0.66% Of Global GDP On Average Every Month In 2021.
• 7 Things That Used To Be "Crazy Conspiracy Theories" Until 2020 Happened.
• "Just Let Me Go" - Shanghai Airport Plunged Into Chaos After Workers Sealed In For COVID Testing.
• AstraZeneca Credits "Dosing Error" For Boosting COVID Vaccine Trial Outcome.
• In Reversal, General Motors Backs Biden, Withdraws Support For Trump Emissions Rollbacks.
• America's Economy Cannot Survive Another Lockdown, And The Cult Of The Reset Knows It.
• 'Anonymous' Anti-Trump NYTimes Writer Identified As Witness In Gen. Flynn Probe: Senators.
• New York Reopens Overflow Ward On Staten Island As COVID Hospitalizations Surge; LA County Sees Another Record: Live Updates.
• Dollar Jumps, Gold Dumps, As Massive Short-Squeeze Sends 'Greed' Near 2020 Highs.

Newsmax:

• Perdue, Loeffler Join Trump Call for New Georgia Recount.
• Seven Letter Poll: 79 Percent of Trump Voters Say Election 'Stolen'.

The Epoch Times:

• CCP Media Outlet Continues Paying US Counterparts Millions to Publish Its Propaganda.

ProtectTheVote.com: 

• Serious allegations of misconduct in the 2020 elections have resulted in unprecedented legal action to ensure our elections are -- and remain -- free and fair. Find out where we’re exposing fraud and how you can help.

HereIsTheEvidence.com:

• This is for aggregating publicly available items of voter fraud evidence in the US election that would be admissible in court.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 61.5 -1.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 32.25 -1.0 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.90 +.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,171.0 +64.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.75 -1.45%
• FTSE 100 futures +.59%.

• S&P 500 futures +.58%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.44%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ANF)/-.04
• (AMWD)/1.85
• (ADI)/1.33
• (PLAN)/-.10
• (BBY)/1.72
• (BURL)/.16
• (CHS)/-.15
• (DKS)/1.05
• (DLTR)/1.16
• (EV)/.87
• (GES)/.05
• (HRL)/.45
• (SJM)/2.23
• (MDT)/.80
• (TIF)/.66
• (TITN)/.35
  

After the Close:

• (AEO)/.35
• (ADSK)/.96
• (DELL)/1.41
• (GPS)/.33
• (HPQ)/.52
• (JWN)/-.10
• (VMW)/1.44
  

Economic Releases 

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +1.5% gain in Aug.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.47% gain in Aug.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to 97.6 versus 100.9 in Oct. 
• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to 20.0 versus 29.0 in Oct.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Clarida speaking, German IFO Index, German GDP report, 7Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, BofA Data Center Conference and the Credit Suisse Chemicals Conference could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.