Tuesday, November 24, 2020

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Vaccine Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Gain, Energy/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.96 -3.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,280.0 +171.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.64 +.36%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.23 -.68%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.37 +.65%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 113.0 unch.
  • Total Put/Call .60 -10.5%
  • NYSE Arms .93 +36.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.27 -5.8%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 688.74 -1.93%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.18 -5.88%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 118.0 -3.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.66 -3.06%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 164.29 -3.22%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 179.31 +.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.5 +.5 basis point.
  • TED Spread 12.5 -1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.75 +3.75 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  73.50 -1.5 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 70.25 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.95 +.17%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 70.5 +1.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 125.45 USD/Metric Tonne -3.21%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 77.0 +1.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 110.2 +7.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 55.6 -1.7 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.73 +2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +290 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +12 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +13 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On  gains in my industrial/tech/medical/consumer staple sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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