Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Dollar Weakness, Short-Covering, Vaccine Optimism, Energy/Airlines Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.2 -8.4%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,037.0 +84.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.15 -.27%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.56 -1.1%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation %

• ISE Sentiment Index 114.0 +104.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .76 -18.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.13 -12.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.30 -.88%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 737.27 +.60%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.63 -1.48%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 121.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 59.64 +2.47%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 174.99 -1.42%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 180.82 -.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 unch.

• TED Spread 13.5 +1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.5 -1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.75 -2.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 70.25 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.86 +.13%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.

• Yield Curve 69.5 -5.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 118.05 USD/Metric Tonne -.95%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 77.60 -8.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 92.9 +.6 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 59.3 -3.6 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.73 +1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +160 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +12 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long