Friday, November 20, 2020

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Mounting US Election Fraud Evidence, Diminished Stimulus Hopes, Virus Shutdown Fears, Financial/Gaming Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.5 -2.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,025.0 +9.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.45 -.07%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.22 -.29%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 39.45 -.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 +2.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .67 -9.5%
  • NYSE Arms .99 +12.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.95 +4.08%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 710.93 +.1%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.95 +1.38%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 122.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 62.42 +2.85%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 169.43 -.41%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 180.82 +.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 +1.0 basis point.
  • TED Spread 15.0 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.25 -1.5 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  74.0 +.25 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 70.5 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.31 -.15%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% unch.
  • Yield Curve 66.85 -1.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 126.11 USD/Metric Tonne +.31%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 67.7 -1.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 107.3 -1.0 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 58.1 -.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.70 unch.
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +197 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +12 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -17 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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