Tuesday, November 17, 2020

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Mounting US Election Fraud Evidence, Virus Fears, Global Growth Worries, Tech/Biotech Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.4 -.22%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,143.0 -36.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.0 -.27%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.55 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 38.1 +2.1%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 123.0 +2.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .85 +18.1%
  • NYSE Arms .67 -13.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.50 -.12%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 725.60 -.18%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.64 +1.15%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 120.0 unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.11 -.41%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 173.67 +2.57%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 181.54 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 unch.
  • TED Spread 14.5 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.0 +2.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  73.25 -.25 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 70.1 +.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.16 +.24%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.
  • Yield Curve 73.5 +2.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 122.99 USD/Metric Tonne +.66%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 67.9 +1.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 102.4 +3.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 59.3 -.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.72 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +41 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +34 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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