Thursday, November 12, 2020

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Mounting US Election Fraud Evidence, Virus Economic Shutdown Fears, Diminished Stimulus Hopes, Energy/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 25.2 +7.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 958.0 -248.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.52 -.04%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.72 -.09%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 43.4 +9.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 10.0 +9.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .87 -14.7%
  • NYSE Arms .93 -45.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.90 +3.12%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 728.50 +1.6%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.63 +5.95%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 122.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.18 +1.11%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 175.47 +2.18%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 180.85 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 unch.
  • TED Spread 12.5 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.75 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  75.0 +3.5 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 70.5 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.80 +.02%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.
  • Yield Curve 75.25 +.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 118.81 USD/Metric Tonne -.87%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 86.50 -12.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 92.3 -.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 55.7 +3.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.72 -3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -180 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -15 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -91 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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