Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Vaccine Optimism, Less European/Emerging Market/US High-Yld Debt Angst, Oil Gain, Financial/Transport Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.2 -9.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,217.0 +96.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.56 -.15%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.1 -.59%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.0 +4.9%

• ISE Sentiment Index 130.0 -11.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .67 -20.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.47 +101.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.50 -2.28%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 493.68 -1.14%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.72 -2.56%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 100.0 -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 59.69 -.32%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 158.30 -2.07%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.72 +.08%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 15.25 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  66.0 -.25 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 74.5 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.22 -.34%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 102.0 +.5 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 152.40 USD/Metric Tonne +4.67%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 71.60 +3.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 147.4 +3.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 65.60 -1.8 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 unch.
• 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +254 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -94 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my energy/tech/industrial/biotech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.8%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -1.9% 2) Healthcare Providers -.4% 3) Shipping -.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ALB, BV, FTOC, LEA, CLX, QRVO, GME, NTGR, IMVT, CTSH, DGNR, APD, ADTN, APD, TKR, XONE, VCVC, CRF, UWMC, QCOM, KOSS, AMC, CLM, CLOV, AMSC, IEA and SAVA
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SAVA 2) FLEX 3) QCOM 4) ATOS 5) AQB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LCI 2) CLOV 3) SPWR 4) VIAC 5) CTSH
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +2.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +3.4% 2) Banks +3.0% 3) Disk Drives +2.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AVXL, APPS, VERU, SKLZ, CRMD, VGAC, ALGN, QTRX, HGEN, HOL, QNST, GOEV, MDP, PRCH, SNA, CURI, PYPL, EBAY, MXL, XL, ATHA, EHTH, SC, MANH, COLM, PSAC, CRHC, CRTX, RVMD, VGR, MRCY and ACIC
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) QEP 2) AGEN 3) AVXL 4) TPR 5) CLGX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) APPS 2) GOOS 3) ALGN 4) ABC 5) PYPL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +5.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 66.2% of Issues Advancing, 31.2% Declining
• 147 New 52-Week Highs, 2 New Lows
• 83.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.3% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,190.0 +75.0 points
• Vix 22.4 -2.2%
• Total Put/Call .64 -23.8%
• TRIN/Arms 1.53 +109.5%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:            

• Chinese Offshore Bond Defaults Reach Nearly 33% of 2020’s Total.
• Hong Kong Pro-Democracy Politicians Sell Homes Amid Crackdown.  
• Euro Optimism Losing Mojo as Strategists Make a Bearish Turn.
• Myanmar Orders Facebook Blocked as Protests Emerge After Coup.
• U.S. Equity Futures Rise; Crude Oil Extends Gain: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Surges as OPEC+ Pledges to Clear Pandemic-Driven Surplus.
• The Improving U.S. Economy Could Complicate Biden’s Stimulus Plan.
• Robinhood Crisis Reveals Hidden Costs in Zero-Fee Trading Model.  
• Goldman Sachs Wants to Get Cozy With Main Street and Its Money.  
• Amazon’s $1 Billion in Daily Sales Highlights Market Dominance.

Wall Street Journal:

• Democrats Move to Pull Greene From House Panels.
• Liberalism’s Ministry of Truth.
• The Tragedy of the Schools.
• From Covid Relief to Big Government.
• Covid-19 Vaccine Hesitancy Presents Challenge for Herd-Immunity Push.
• Biden’s China Policy to Be Steered by Team of Rivals.

Fox News:   

• Outrage follows Biden's 'vast majority' comments after FBI agents' slayings.
  

CNBC.com:

• Amazon is using AI-equipped cameras in delivery vans, raising privacy concerns.
• Why investors were willing to write Robinhood a $3 billion check during the GameStop chaos.
• Qualcomm falls short on revenue in first earnings report since CEO change announced.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: eBay, PayPal, Qualcomm & more.

MarketWatch.com:    

• These S&P 500 stocks have had the biggest increases in ‘buy’ ratings so far this year.
  
• Apple may build a fully autonomous electric car with Hyundai-Kia: report.
  
• S&P 500 earnings recession set to end, as Q4 EPS swings to growth.
  
• Investors fear buoyant global markets vulnerable to China credit crunch.

Zero Hedge:

• Hong Kong Cops Threaten To "Kick Door Down" For Anybody Who Dosn't Open For COVID Test.
• '#AlexandriaOcasioSmollett' Trends On Twitter After NY Rep Rejects Claims She Wasn't At Capitol During Riots.
• Parler CEO Fired By 'Rebekah-Mercer-Controlled Board'.
• These Are The Words Colleges Don't Want You To Say.
• Reddit's Silver Raid Sparked Highly Unusual Backwardation.
• The Gaslighting Of The American Mind.
• California Opens First Federally-Run COVID Vaccination "Super-Sites": Live Updates.
• American Airlines Warns It Will Cut Another 13,000 Jobs As It Burns Through Latest Bailout In Just One Month.
• Politicizing The Classroom: 9 Things To Know About Illinois' Pending "Culturally Responsive" K-12 Teaching Mandate.
• SEC To Crawl Through Social Media, Hunting For Gamestop Manipulation Fraud.
• In Order To Have A "Tolerant Society", The Elite Believe They Must Be Intolerant Of All Dissenting Views.
• Meet The Hedge Fund That Made A Killing On The Reddit-Fueled Short Squeeze.
• Prosecution Of Top Officials "Unlikely" Outcome Of Durham 'Russiagate' Probe, Report.
• Yellen Gets Ethics Waiver To Lead Regulator Meeting On Gamestop Insanity After Taking $810K From Citadel.
• Big-Shorts, Bitcoin, Bond Yields, & Black Gold All Bounce.

Newsmax:

• 1776 Commission, Part II: Red States Weigh Limits on How Race, Slavery Are Taught.  
• Jen Psaki Accused of Homophobia Over Tweet Mocking Sen. Graham.
• Denzel Washington Praises Police, Denounces BLM Protesters.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Kroger to Close 25% of Its Stores in SoCal Beach City After City Council Passes Mandate Requiring Certain Companies to Pay Employees an Extra $4 Per Hour.
• BREAKING: AOC Was Not In the Capitol Dome Building – Embellished Her “Near Death Experience” Where Protesters Stormed Her Office (VIDEO).
• Train Wreck Jen Psaki Issues Quasi-Apology After Mocking Space Force During Press Briefing (VIDEO).
• Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene Brutally Owns Rep. Ilhan Omar for Marrying Her Brother.
• Wisconsin’s ‘Indefinitely Confined’ Voter Status Excludes Requirement for Voter IDs – 265,000 Ballots Cast in 2020 Election.
• Biden DOJ Drops Race-Based Discrimination Case Against Yale Brought by Trump Administration.
• John Kerry Defends Taking Gas-Guzzling Private Jet to Accept Climate Award in Iceland, “The Only Choice For Someone Like Me” (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times: 

• China Insider: China Treats Asymptomatic Patient Like a Criminal.
• China Is Collecting Americans’ DNA, Posing Major Security Risks: US Counterintelligence Agency.

HereIsTheEvidence.com:

• This is for aggregating publicly available items of voter fraud evidence in the US election that would be admissible in court.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 59.5 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 29.75 -.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.44 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,102.0 -16.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.60 -.19%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.27%.

• S&P 500 futures +.10%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.20%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ABB)/.19
• (AGCO)/1.12
• (APD)/2.19
• (ALXN)/2.56
• (ABC)/1.94
• (BAX)/.76
• (BDX)/3.16
• (BMY)/1.42
• (GOOS)/.80
• (CCL)/-1.64
• (CI)/3.69
• (CLX)/1.75
• (CMI)/2.76
• (GPI)/5.79
• (HSY)/1.43
• (ICE)/1.08
• (IP)/.81
• (LEA)/3.45
• (MRK)/1.39
• (FIZZ)/.71
• (ODFL)/1.57
• (PH)/2.58
• (PENN)/.18
• (PM)/1.22
• (DGX)/4.24
• (RL)/1.73
• (SINA)/.86
• (SNA)/2.93
• (YUM)/1.01

After the Close:

• (ATVI)/1.18
• (CSL)/1.20
• (DECK)/7.14
• (F)/-.09
• (GILD)/1.85
• (MCHP)/1.58
• (NWSA)/.09
• (PTON)/.12
• (POST)/.71
• (PRU)/2.57
• (SKYW)/-.83
• (SNAP)/.07
• (WERN)/.79
• (WYNN)/-2.28
• (ZEN)/.15
  

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Jan.

8:30 am EST

• 4Q Non-Farm Productivity is estimated to fall -3.0% versus a +4.6% gain in 3Q.
• 4Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise +4.0% versus a -6.6% decline in 3Q.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 830K versus 847K the prior week. 
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 4700K versus 4771K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for Dec. is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +1.0% gain in Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Bank of England decision, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the (JWN) investor event could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Stimulus Hopes, Economic Data, Oil Gain, Commodity/Retail Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.2 -9.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,098.0 +197.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.69 -.08%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.1 -.98%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.1 -2.4%

• ISE Sentiment Index 149.0 +43.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .84 +7.7%

• NYSE Arms .56 -67.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.51 -1.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 502.10 -1.34%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.23 -2.59%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 105.0 -9.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 59.88 -2.63%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 160.69 -3.16%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.57 +.09%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 +.75 basis point

• TED Spread 15.25 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  65.75 -.75 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 74.75 +1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.43 +.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 101.5 +3.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 147.15 USD/Metric Tonne +2.37%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 67.90 +7.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 150.9 +25.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 67.40 -1.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 +3.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -56 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -81 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my energy/tech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long