Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• China Lawmakers Wrap Whirlwind Session Focused on Managing Risks.  
• ECB Confronts Rising Yields, Delayed Recovery: Decision Guide.  
• ECB Draft Forecasts Assume Any Inflation Pickup Will Be Fleeting.
  
• Asia Stocks Open Mixed; Treasuries, Dollar Steady: Markets Wrap.
  
• Oil Climbs as U.S. Gasoline Stockpiles Drain Amid Rising Demand.  
• Copper Wobbles Mask Ongoing Demand Strength, Top Supplier Says.
• Biden Boosts J&J Order; Brazil Deaths at Record: Virus Update.
  
• One in Five U.S. Adults Say They May Not Take Covid-19 Vaccine .
  
• J&J Vaccine Rollout Slowed by Shifting State Strategies.
• SoftBank-Backed Coupang Prices U.S. IPO Above Target.  
• What’s an NFT? It’s What Makes GIFs Worth Big Bucks.  
• U.S. Reports Surge of Children at Southwest Border.  
• The Winners and Losers From Surging Oil and Commodity Prices.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Progressive Democratic Steamroller.
• Booming Electric-Vehicle Demand Supercharges Lithium Prices.
• Businesses That Thrived in Lockdown Face New Hurdles.
• Arrests of Unaccompanied Children at Southern Border Continue to Climb.
• AMC Reopening More Theaters Closed by Covid-19.
  

Fox News:

• Toomey calls out COVID relief bill's ‘litany of outrageous items’ on 'America's Newsroom'.
• DAVID DITCH: COVID relief stimulus -- 7 things you need to know about deeply flawed package.
• Stimulus checks headed for stock market.

CNBC.com:

• Oracle drops after CEO delivers low earnings guidance on call.
• Bumble tops revenue estimates in its first quarterly report as a public company; shares rise.
• China’s low GDP target gives Beijing room to address market risks.

MarketWatch.com:          

• 16 small-cap stocks that could get a boost from ETF buying.  
• Roblox stock surges on first day of trading to close up more than 50%.  
• Dow ends at a record high while Nasdaq remains in correction — That hasn’t happened in 20 years.

Zero Hedge:

• Here Come Trillions More: Biden Will Unveil "Next Phase" Of COVID Response On Thursday.
• Buchanan: The Emerging Existential Crisis At The Border.
• "Mega Squeeze" Revealed As Culprit Of Tuesday's Historic Meltup, As Expected.
• Livid Trump Blasts "Our Country Is Being Destroyed At The Southern Border".
• Wind Power Is A Disaster In Texas, No Matter What Paul Krugman Says.
• Brazil Surpasses US In Daily COVID Cases & Deaths.
• China Censors "Stock Market" From Popular Social Media Platform Amid Selloff.
• House Passes $1.9 Trillion Stimulus; Next Stop, Biden's Desk.
• Who Is The President? Kamala Harris Takes Yet Another Call With A Foreign Leader.
• Stanford Medical Professor Insists COVID Lockdowns "Worst Public Health Mistake In Last 100 Years".
• Stimmy Vote Sinks Dollar, Bids Bitcoin & Big-Caps To Record Highs.

Newsmax:    

• Texas AG Paxton to Newsmax TV: Biden Admin Dodging Q's on Border Figures Because They Created a Problem.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Piers Morgan Fires Back At Critics After Comments On Meghan-Harry Interview: ‘Freedom Of Speech Is A Hill I’m Happy To Die On’.
• California’s Proposed “Ethnic Studies” Curriculum Urges Students to Chant to Aztec Deity of Human Sacrifice and Cannibalism – Calls For “Counter-Genocide” Against White Christians.
• America’s Frontline Doctors Call on the Government and the Commercial Airline Industry to Abandon Requiring COVID-19 Vaccines.
• “This is the Most Radical Legislation, Socially, in the Past Four Decades” – Steve Bannon Weighs in on Bloated COVID Bill that has Nothing to Do with COVID.
• Psaki Laughs When Asked Why Border Facilities for Migrant Children Are Fully Open But US Schools Aren’t (VIDEO). 

The Epoch Times:

• Blinken Says ‘No Concessions Whatsoever’ to Beijing Ahead of Meeting With Top Chinese Officials.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.0 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 33.75 -.5 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.24 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,770.0 +43.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.45 -.04%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.01%.

• S&P 500 futures +.09%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (CCL)/-1.69
• (GCO)/1.96
• (JD)/1.19
• (FIZZ)/.39

After the Close:

• (DOCU)/.13
• (LOCO)/.165
• (ULTA)/2.37
• (ZUMZ)/1.63
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 725K versus 745K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 4200K versus 4295K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• JOLTS Job Openings for Jan. is estimated to rise to 6650 versus 6646 in Dec.

12:00 pm EST

• Household Change in Net Worth.

Upcoming Splits

• (VRNS) 3-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The ECB meeting, 30Y T-Bond auction, Langer Consumer Comfort, weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory report, DA Davidson Consumer Growth Conference, Loop Capital Consumer/Industrials/TMT Investor Conference and the (DGX) investor day could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Economic Optimism, Oil Gain, Commodity/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.4 -6.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,717.0 +98.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.75 +.1%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.6 -.3

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.4 -.7%

• ISE Sentiment Index 103.0 +2.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .70 -23.9%

• NYSE Arms .91 -31.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.20 -3.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 480.22 +.39%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.70 -1.85%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 99.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.72 +.13%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 193.03 -1.71%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 186.74 +.05%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.0 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 14.75 -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.5 +1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.5 +2.0 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.25 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.24 +.78%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 137.0 -4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 159.50 USD/Metric Tonne +.58%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 72.50 -7.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 121.6 +2.7 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 52.8 +3.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 +5.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +114 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +76 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my energy/biotech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +22.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 69.5% of Issues Advancing, 27.2% Declining
• 264 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
• 86.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,713.0 +103.0 points
• Vix 22.7 -5.6%
• Total Put/Call .72 -21.7%
• TRIN/Arms .95 -28.0%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:          

• U.S., China Top Diplomats Discuss Meeting in Alaska, SCMP Says.
• Rate-Hike Bets in India Escalate in Presage of Global Tightening.  
• Exporters Take Unusual Steps to Ease Container Shortage.
• Asia Stocks Steady After Nasdaq Surge; Bonds Rise: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Holds Losses as Report Points to Expanding U.S. Stockpiles.
•  Turbocharged Economy, China-U.S. Diverge, Canada Taper: Eco Day.
  
• Death of 60/40 Portfolio Makes Returns Tougher for Wealth Funds.  
• GameStop Defies Gravity Again With Rally Topping 100% Gain.
• Hackers Breach Thousands of Security Cameras, Exposing Tesla, Jails, Hospitals.  
• Covid-19 Death Forecast Drops as Pandemic Indicators Improve.

Wall Street Journal:

• Volatility Hits the Hot SPAC Market.
• SoftBank Put $400 Million Into Greensill Months Before Collapse.
• America’s Battery-Powered Car Hopes Ride on Lithium. One Producer Paves the Way.
• Dr. Seuss Teaches the Limits of Cancel Culture.
• School Isn’t Closed for Lack of Money.
• Breaking Down the Third Covid-19 Aid Package.

Fox News:

• Trump rips migrant surge, rollback of border policies, as Biden remains in crisis denial.
  

CNBC.com:

• Inflation may have been warming up in February, but it could be hot by May.
• Roblox goes public Wednesday — here’s how indie game makers turned it into a $30 billion company.
• CEO of Airstream maker Thor Industries expects hot RV market to continue post pandemic.
• Chevron CEO believes stock is a great long-term value play, which attracted Buffett to the name.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after the bell: Toll Brothers, AeroVironment, Levi Strauss & more.

MarketWatch.com:       

• 25 small-cap stocks that analysts expect to rise as much as 64% over the next year.

Zero Hedge:

• Gundlach: "People Are Starting To Believe That Stimulus Is Permanent".  
  
• 'Weekend At Biden's?' Handlers Shut Down Yet Another Q&A After Public Appearance.
• Democrat Panel Recommends Permanent Military "Quick Reaction Force" For Capitol.
• Japan's Government To Ban Overseas Spectators From Tokyo Olympics.
• Morgan Stanley Expects US To Grow Faster Than China In 2021.
• Goldman Does The SLR Math, Stumbles On An Huge, $2 Trillion Problem.
• COVID Outbreak Confirmed At Nursing Home Despite Staff, Patients Being Vaccinated.
• Illinois' Record-Setting Pension Debt Jumps To Over $300 Billion.
• Sixth Woman Accuses Cuomo Of Sexual Harassment.
• WTI Holds Losses After Huge Surprise Crude Build.
• Cathie Wood's ARKK Has 'Best Day Ever' As PPT-Engineered Squeeze Lifts All Boats.

Newsmax:    

• Poll: Newsmax Is 2nd Most Watched by GOP, Now Beating CNN, ABC, NBC.
• Rasmussen Poll: Half of US Sees Biden as Unfit to Be President.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• “My Frustration Has Boiled Over” – Florida Attorney General Sues Biden Administration Over Release of Criminal Aliens.
• Get Woke, Go Broke: NBA All-Star Ratings Crash, Hit All-Time Low“.
• “Our Country is Being Destroyed at the Southern Border” – Trump Rips Into Democrats in New Statement on the Crisis at the Border.
• REMINDER: Governor Cuomo Sent COVID Patients to Developmentally Disabled Centers As Well as Nursing Homes.
• 13-Year-Old Muslim Student Admits She Made Up Story That Led to French Teacher’s Beheading.
• NEW: House Democrats to Pass $1.9 Trillion Pork-Filled Covid Relief Bill Wednesday Morning, Send it to Biden’s Desk.

The Epoch Times:

• Chinese Regime May Be Accelerating Plans to Supplant America: US Military Commander.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.5 -1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 34.25 -1.25 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.72 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,692.0 +72.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.81 +.34%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.38%.

• S&P 500 futures -.09%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.07%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (CPB)/.84
• (SINA)/.86
• (TUP)/.77
• (UNFI)/.81
• (VRA)/.39
  

After the Close:

• (AMC)/-3.13
• (CLDR)/.11
• (ORCL)/1.11
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in Jan.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.2% versus unch. in Jan.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Statement for Feb. is estimated to widen to -$305.0B versus -$235.3B in Jan.

Upcoming Splits

• (VRNS) 3-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German ZEW Index, 10Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, BofA Refining Conference, (AVY) investor day, (LHX) investor briefing, (VZ) investor day and the (GE) investor outlook could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Mid-Day Market Internals

 NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +12.5% Above 100-Day Average 
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 66.4% of Issues Advancing, 31.1% Declining
• 252 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 85.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.1%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,687.0 +124.0 points
• Vix 23.0 -9.6%
• Total Put/Call .79 +1.3%
• TRIN/Arms 1.04 +79.7%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• Haunted by 2008, China and U.S. Diverge on Stimulus Plans.
• Asian Stocks Open Mixed After U.S. Tech Tumble: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Flirting With $70 Challenges World’s Economic Recovery.  
• Policy Gap, 4.1% Unemployment, Yellen on Inflation: Eco Day.
• Biden’s Giant Stimulus to Easily Pass House, Democrats Say.
• Nasdaq 100 Has Not Diverged This Much From the Dow Since 1993.  
• U.S. Airline Flyers Top 1 Million-a-Day Pace, a Pandemic Rarity.  
• Coinbase Is Said to Be Valued at $90 Billion in Private Auction.  
• Inside the $156 Billion SPAC Bubble.  
• Biggest Yield-GDP Gap Since 1966 Shows More Room for Bond Pain.

Wall Street Journal:

• Nasdaq Enters Correction Territory as Tech Shares Sink.
• CDC Says Vaccinated People Can Gather Privately Without Masks.
• The Perpetual Outrage Machine Churns On.
• Fed Policy Is Smothering Private Lending.
• GOP Sen. Blunt of Missouri Won’t Run for Re-Election.
  

Fox News:

• The prince used to be fun, but with Meghan, an insider says, he's 'absolutely miserable'.
• CNN media 'reporter' Stelter films himself without pants while hosting.
  

CNBC.com:

• Stocks making the biggest moves after the bell: Zoom Video, Stitch Fix, Invitae & more.
• House prepares to pass $1.9 trillion Covid relief bill.
• Stitch Fix swings to a quarterly loss and softens outlook on shipping delays; shares plunge.
• ‘Significant’ scarring will limit pent-up consumer demand, Stephen Roach predicts.

MarketWatch.com:          

• How high can rates go? This chart shows this year’s sharp climb in long-term Treasury rates.

Zero Hedge:

• In Embarrassing Senior Moment, Biden Forgets What Pentagon's Called, Blanks On Secretary Of Defense Name.
• Ron Paul: The Fed Is Enabling Biden And Congress' Destructive Agenda.
• China FM Demands Biden Reverse "Dangerous" Taiwan Stance, Otherwise "World Will Be Far From Tranquil". 
• Repo Chaos Continues: "Market Just Doesn't Know Where To Price The 10-Year".
• Mutant COVID Strains In Florida, New York Threaten To Derail US Recovery, BofA Warns.
• By One Gauge, Inflation Fears Are The Highest This Century.
• "Not Safe To Return": Biden Offers Legal Status To Hundreds Of Thousands Of Venezuelans.
• In Shocking Reversal, Brazil Supreme Court Annuls Lula Carwash Conviction, Setting Stage For His Return As President.
• Chinese Government-Backed Hackers Go Global With Microsoft Exchange Breach.
• Solomon: New Declassified Texts Expose FBI's "Media Leak Strategy" Used To Influence Election, Trump Presidency.
• Dow Dominates As Tech Wrecks; Bitcoin, Bond Yields, & The Buck Bounce.

Newsmax:    

• Sen. Toomey: Dems' Bill a 'Litany of Outrageous Items'.
• 12 States Sue Biden Administration Over Climate Executive Order.
• Biden Orders Creation of Gender Policy Council.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• LIVESTREAM VIDEO: Michigan Attorney Matthew DePerno and Witness Mellissa Carone Speak on Election Investigations at Undisclosed Michigan Location — 6:00 PM ET.
• After Defunding The Police, NYC First Lady Wants New Yorkers To “Defend Their Neighbors” As Crime Spikes.
• CDC Study Finds 78% of People Hospitalized, Needed a Ventilator or Died From Covid-19 Were Overweight or Obese.
• EXCLUSIVE: Retired Purple Heart Veteran in Arizona Who Dove In Dumpster and Found Shredded Ballots Is Now Being Threatened.

The Epoch Times:

• Zoom Founder Eric Yuan Transfers Stock Worth Over $6 Billion.
• China Increases Defense Budget, Premier Orders the Military to Prepare for War.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.5 +3.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 35.5 +2.75 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.30 -.09%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,594.0 +32.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.35 -1.14%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.22%.

• S&P 500 futures +.54%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.68%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (DKS)/2.31
• (PLCE)/-.28
• (THO)/1.58
  

After the Close:

• (ABM)/.59
• (AVAV)/.00
• (HRB)/-1.29
• (MDB)/-.39
  

Economic Releases

6:00 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to 97.0 versus 95.0 in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China inflation data report, 3Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, Barclays Healthcare Conference, UBS Consumer/Retail Conference, Truist Tech/Internet/Services Conference, RBC Financial Institutions Conference, Susquehanna Tech Conference, BofA Consumer/Retail Tech Conference, HC Wainwright Life Sciences Conference, (CVX) investor day and the (DKNG) investor day  could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.