Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Diminishing Virus Lockdown Fears, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Energy/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.7 +3.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,955.0 -22.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.76 +.24%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.55 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.51 +1.8%

• ISE Sentiment Index 99.0  -25.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .64 -20.0%

• NYSE Arms .99 -27.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 46.42 +.71%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 401.51 -1.45%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 51.67 +.3%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 105.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.61 -1.09%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 150.09 -.72%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.40 -.23%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.0 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 8.25 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  75.5 +.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.5 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.54 -.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 109.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 143.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -51.8 +.7 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -10.9 -.1 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.5 +.7 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 unch.
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 98.2% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 355 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +10/100K people
• 67% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +2.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +92 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +2 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -27 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/biotech/medical/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -.5% 2) Computer Services -.5% 3) REITs -.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• OLN, ADSK, PFN, HRL, AXSM, VEEV, LE, DVAX, CHWY, AI, PHR, SWBI, TCBI, ORMP, FIVE and AEO
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FIVE 2) CIEN 3) FIS 4) COG 5) AMBA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ASMB 2) SWBI 3) FIVE 4) CHWY 5) ALKS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Energy +3.5% 2) Oil Service +3.1% 3) Al Energy +2.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ASAN, NCNO, OSCR, VERU, CERT, SMTC, CHPT, PWR, NTNX, INMB, GRTS, FUCV, COG, ACI, APPS, FIGS, XEC, AR, LPRO, SKT, RNA, APP, GMS, MTCH, MRO, U, FSLY, HES, CRC, TTCF, BAX, HRC, RTLR, BSM, MARA, TDC, IEA, CCL, KR, CNR, FIVN, AMR and DTIL
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ALDX 2) WSC 3) INFI 4) URA 5) FIVE

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ASAN 2) NCNO 3) SMTC 4) CHPT 5) BNED
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -8.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 64.8% of Issues Advancing, 30.8% Declining
• 185 New 52-Week Highs, 6 New Lows
• 70.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,010.0 +33.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,808 -.44%
  
• Vix 16.0 -.5%
• Total Put/Call .63 -21.3%
• TRIN/Arms .80 -41.2%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:             

• Taiwan Warns China Can ‘Paralyze’ Island’s Defenses in Conflict.
• Chinese Firms Rush to Embrace Xi’s ‘Common Prosperity’ Slogan.  
• Asian Stocks Eye Steady Open After U.S. Tech Gains: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Drops After OPEC+ Alliance Agrees to Return More Barrels.
• U.S. DOJ Readying Google Antitrust Lawsuit Over Ad-Tech Business.
• Sacklers to Exit From Complex Purdue Bankruptcy With Billions.
• Javits Center Debt Downgraded as NYC Tourism Struggles to Revive.  
• Moderna Seeks U.S. Authorization for Covid Booster Shot.  
• New Orleans Power Crisis: Fix 2,500 Broken Poles in a Swamp.  
• Nordstrom Cut to Junk by Moody’s as Recovery Lags That of Peers.
• Covid Test Maker Cue Health Files for IPO After Revenue Gains.

Wall Street Journal:  

• Taliban Seeking to Expand Capabilities With U.S. Arms.
• Hundreds of American citizens, residents remain stuck after airlift’s end.
• Purdue Pharma Bankruptcy Plan Is Approved, Shielding Sackler Family.
• Energy Traders See Big Money in Carbon-Emissions Markets.
• Ben Dugan Works for CVS. His Job Is Battling a $45 Billion Crime Spree.  
• The Entitlement State’s Bankruptcy Dates.  
• Biden’s Ugly Defense of His Afghan Failure.

Fox News:

• Retired US generals call on Biden's top military and diplomatic officials to resign after Afghanistan crisis.
• LIVE UPDATES: Biden leaves behind US-sponsored journalists he vowed to evacuate.
• WH refuses to deny report Biden pushed Taliban narrative on Afghan leader in bombshell chat.
• Even Biden's own WH staff 'literally horrified' he stranded Americans in Afghanistan.
  

CNBC.com: 

• Fanatics shocked the sports world with trading card deals — Here’s what’s next ahead of expected IPO.
• TSA airport screenings drop to lowest since May as travel, fares fall.
• Ford cuts F-150 pickup production again due to chip shortage.
• WHO says it is monitoring a new Covid variant called ‘mu’.
• 23,876 ‘at risk’ Afghans have already arrived in the United States, State Department says.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Chewy, Five Below, ChargePoint and more.
  

MarketWatch.com:           

• Chewy stock drops 10% after second-quarter results.
  
• These robotics and automation stocks could climb up to 68% in the next year.

Zero Hedge:

• Biden Told Afghan President To "Create Perception" Taliban Wasn't Winning "Whether It Is True Or Not".
• COVID Hospital Admissions Fall For First Time Since June In Latest Sign Delta Wave Has Peaked. 
• Bank Buybacks Hit Record Propelling Stocks To All Time HIgh.
• 'I Feel Good': Joe Rogan Contracts Covid, Bounces Back Within Days Using Drug Cocktail Including Ivermectin.
• "We Are F**king Abandoning American Citizens" Says Livid Army Colonel In Leaked Afghanistan Texts.
• Here Are The Best And Worst Performing Assets In August.
• 'Cash For Criminals': San Francisco Will Start Paying People Not To Shoot Each Other.
• CDC Director Tells The Unvaccinated Not To Travel Over Labor Day Weekend - Except What About Natural Immunity?
• State Dept Contradicts Biden, Says Vast Majority Of Interpreters & Visa-Eligible Afghans Were "Left Behind".
• Rally Fizzles As Banks And Energy Dump While FANGs Hit All-Time High; Cryptos Soar.

Newsmax: 

• Poll: 61 Percent of Voters Say US Has 'Pretty Seriously Gotten Off Track'.  
• Rep. Kinzinger Demands Count of Americans Left Behind.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Taliban Fighters in US Uniforms Throw Victory Parade Riding in US Military Equipment with US Guns (VIDEO).
• REPORT: DoD had Foreknowledge of Kabul Airport Bomber – Denied Permission to Fire Predator Drone that had Lock on Him – 13 US Heroes Dead.
• Federal Judge Bars Western Michigan University From Mandating Covid Vaccines for Athletes.
• Phoenix: Teachers Who Refuse To Teach CRITICAL RACE THEORY Will Be Paid LESS Than Those Who Do.
• Pope Chides US and the West Over Afghanistan War – Quotes Putin and Says It’s Irresponsible to Enforce Your Own Values on Others.
• AWFUL: Mitch McConnell Shoots Down Calls for for Biden’s Impeachment — After He Threw Trump Under the Bus After Second Impeachment.
• Reality Bites: 52% of Voters Believe Joe Biden Should Resign for Historically Disastrous Surrender in Afghanistan and Arming of the Enemy.

The Epoch Times:

• Beijing Will Be ‘Playing With Fire’ If It Tests US Resolve Over Taiwan: Expert.
• Indiana’s Last Confucius Institute to Close in 2022 Amid State Inquiry Over CCP Influence.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.25 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 32.0 -.75 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.57 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,984.0 +7.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.5 +.02%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.20%.

• S&P 500 futures +.10%

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.10%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AEO)/.55
• (CIEN)/.79
• (DCI)/.66
• (GCO)/.03
• (GIII)/.10
• (HRL)/.39
• (PDCO)/.37
• (SIG)/1.69
• (TTC)/.79
  

After the Close:

• (AVGO)/6.91
• (COO)/3.29
• (DOCU)/.40
• (HPE)/.42
• (MDB)/-.40
• (OXM)/2.34
• (NX)/.44

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Aug.
  

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 345K versus 353K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2808K versus 2862K prior. 
• The Trade Deficit for July is estimated at -$70.9B versus -$75.7B in June.
  

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +1.5% gain in June.
• Factory Orders Ex Transports for July is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.4% gain in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Services PMI report, weekly Langer Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (BF/A) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Dollar Weakness, Short-Covering, Biotech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.8 -4.3%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,020.0 +87.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.42 +.27%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.53 -.12%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.6 unch.

• ISE Sentiment Index 138.0  +38.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .76 -13.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.20 +46.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 46.11 -.28%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 408.08 -.95%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 51.51 -.81%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 106.0 -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.17 -2.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 150.73 -.86%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.48 -.18%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 unch.

• TED Spread 8.25 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.25 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  75.0 +.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.5 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.58 +.19%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 111.0 +4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 143.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -52.5 +3.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -10.8 unch.
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.5 -1.6 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 unch.
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 98.2% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 345 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +6/100K people
• 65% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +1.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +144 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +46 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/biotech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long