Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -6.9% Below 100-Day Average 
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 60.9% of Issues Advancing, 35.5% Declining
• 13 New 52-Week Highs, 20 New Lows
• 20.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.5% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,035.0 -257.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,641.0 -.57%
  
• Vix 22.7 -1.9%
• Total Put/Call .95 +2.2%
• TRIN/Arms 2.0 +74.1%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• US Says Russia Oil Cap Needed as EU Sanctions Not Yet Priced In.  
• Yuan Shorts Gather Pace on Lockdown Threat, Property-Sector Risk.
• Japan’s Inflation Picks Up Speed to Keep Pressure on BOJ.  
• Hong Kong Faces First Prime Rate Hike Since 2018 on Hawkish Fed.  
  
• UK Consumer Confidence Languishes at 48-Year low, Survey Finds.
  
• Snap’s Drop Cools Stock Optimism Before Asia Open: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Set for Longest Run of Declines This Year.
• J&J Invest Raises Naver Bet, Stays Faithful to Korea Tech Stocks.  
• It’s Not You, It’s Inflation: How Soaring Prices Are Changing the Dating Game.

Wall Street Journal:    

• The False ‘Green Jobs’ Promise. Ford may lay off 8,000 workers to meet its federal electric-vehicle mandate.
• Supreme Court Rules Against Biden Administration’s Immigration Enforcement Guidelines3 min read.
• FedEx to Suspend Sunday Delivery in Some Markets.
• Turkey, U.N. Officials Say Deal Reached on Ukraine Grain Exports.
• Staff at HSBC’s China Securities Arm Set Up Communist Unit.
• Seven Crypto Companies That Laid Off Employees This Summer.

CNBC.com:

• Snap shares plunge 25% on disappointing second-quarter results and plans to slow hiring.
• San Francisco’s slow recovery from Covid has left local businesses ‘hanging on’ for tech’s return.
• Social media and online ad stocks drop in wake of alarming Snap earnings report.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Snap, Meta Platforms, Mattel and more.
• Consumers are paying an average $10,000 above ‘normal’ prices for used cars, research shows.

MarketWatch:         

• Stock market turbulence may not be scaring off retail investors: ‘We’re not seeing investors respond the way they typically have’.
  
• How Amazon’s $3.9 billion wager on primary care could change your Prime membership.
  
• Opinion: ‘People will freak out’ — The cloud boom is coming back to earth, and that could be scary for tech stocks.

Zero Hedge: 

• Biden Tests Positive: Is It Still A Pandemic Of The Unvaccinated?
• "Republicans Are Just Going After Him": Media Starts The Spin On Possible Hunter Biden Charges.
• US "Started" The Ukraine Crisis, China Says, In Fiercest Official Criticism Yet.
• Blackstone Prepares A Record $50 Billion To Snap Up Real Estate During The Coming Crash. 
• "Let's Tap The Brakes" - America's Largest Landlords Pull Back From Home-Buying-Spree.
• Growing Number Of K-12 Teachers Charged With Child Sex Crimes In Recent Months: Analysis.
• New York And DC Democrats Complain That They Are Being Overloaded With Illegal Immigrants.
• Daily Briefing: Are We Fated to Stagflation?
• Pennsylvania Lawmaker Issues Report Detailing 'Myriad Of Election Issues'.
• A Veteran Explains Why People Aren't Joining The Military.
• Dr. Birx Admits She And Fauci Made Up 'The Science' On Lockdowns, Social Distancing.
• US stocks gained after weak data triggered a rally in treasuries and pressured yields - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Trucker Protest Halts Cargo Flow At Port Of Oakland.
• Pritzker Honed His Presidential Stump Speech In Florida... With Hatred And Dishonesty.
• SNAP Craters 25% After Reporting Weakest-Ever Growth, Removes Q3 Guidance, Drags Down All "Socials".
• Duration/tech rally after poor US data offsets ECB's hawkish hike - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Watch: Dems Openly Admit Gun Control Bill Will Confiscate Firearms In "Common Use".
• Greenwich Housing Market "Is Returning To Earth".
• The Digital US Dollar Is A Threat To Civil Liberties.
• Bonds & Big-Tech Surge As Ugly Data Hammers Rate-Hike Hopes.

Newsmax:

• CIA Director: Putin 'Entirely Too Healthy'.
• Fla. AG: Fentanyl Is a 'Weapon of Mass Destruction'.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Kamala Harris Smiles and Giggles While Talking About Joe Biden Getting COVID (Video).
• BREAKING: Wisconsin Election Commission Announces They Will IGNORE New Ruling and Allow Clerks to Cure and Count Incomplete Mail-in Ballots.
• Italian PM Mario Draghi Officially Resigns, Becomes FIFTH Leader to Abandon Ship As Governments around the World Begin to Collapse Under Weight of the “Great Reset”.
• Wives and Widows Call on “Woke” Communities to Stop Funding BLM and Support Communities Destroyed and Forever Altered by Their Lies.
• Mississippi Man and J-6 Political Prisoner Faces MORE THAN 20 YEARS IN PRISON After Conviction of Made-Up Felony Charge of “Obstruction of Official Proceeding” and Four MISDEMEANORS!
• Is She Running Again? Hillary Clinton Tweets Cryptic Photo Shortly After Joe Biden’s Covid Diagnosis Announced.
• CONFIRMED: US Open Prohibits Novak Djokovic from Playing Because He Refused to Take Experimental Covid-19 Shot.
• Pelosi Walks Away After Reporter Confronts Her on Husband’s Stock Purchases (VIDEO).
• ESPN Awards Turncoat Skier Eileen Gu – Breakthrough Athlete of the Year – After Winning Olympic Gold for Communist China But Growing Up Here in US.
• Former Offensive Lineman for Notre Dame Dies at 35 Due to Cardiac Arrest While on a Run.

 The Epoch Times: 

• DC Rally Urges ‘Aggressive Actions’ by Congress to End CCP’s Forced Organ Harvesting of Falun Gong Practitioners.
• Nearly 60 Percent of Americans Want TikTok Removed From App Stores: Poll.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 842,573 Reports(+3,276 from prior week) Through July 8th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 161.75 -9.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 84.25 +1.0 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.86 -.15%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,433.0 +133.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.1 +1.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.17%.

• S&P 500 futures -.36%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.69%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AXP)/2.41
• (ALV)/.36
• (CLF)/1.29
• (GNTX)/.38
• (HCA)/3.71
• (NEE)/.75
• (RF)/.53
• (SLB)/.40
• (TWTR)/.14
• (VZ)/1.33
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

9:45 am EST:

• The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for July is estimated to fall to 52.0 versus 52.7 in June.
• The S&P Global US Services PMI for July is estimated at 52.7 versus 52.7 in June.
• The S&P Global Composite PMI for July is estimated to rise to 52.4 versus 52.3 in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (GME) 4-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK retail sales report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, US Economic Soft-Landing Hopes, Earnings Optimism, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.5 -1.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.24% +32.8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,358.0 -183.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.40 -.20%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.4 +.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 44.3 -1.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 +12.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .95 +1.06%

• NYSE Arms 1.10 -8.94%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 84.67 -.18%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 505.65 +2.0%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 484.0 -30.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 119.76 -1.4%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 232.0 basis points +19.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 164.70 -3.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 354.76 +.65%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.3 +.8%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 12,550.90 +10.8%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.75 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 30.25 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.5 basis points -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  136.0 -3.75 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.14 +.54%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .95 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.86 -.57%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.42% -2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -19.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 98.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -60.0 -6.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -61.60 unch.
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 21.8 +.5 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -8.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for September 21st FOMC meeting: 48.2%(-2.5 percentage points) chance of 3.0%-3.25%. Highest target rate probability for November 2nd meeting: 45.6%(+3.5 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 266 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 15.3%(-.4 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -71.3%(+.4 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +7 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -20 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -51 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/medical/technology sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -5.0% 2) Energy -3.0% 3) Airlines -3.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• DLTR, PAG, AIR, DY, BX, FIGS, TSCO, LAD, WIRE, KURA, AN, XM, LNTH, HCSG, LUMN, HAYW, TDS, PACW, ALL, BKR, T, BPT, NCLH, CPE, AAL, VERV, POOL, RCL, DFS, UAL and PBF
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) T 2) ITB 3) SNAP 4) GOOG 5) AKAM
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CCL 2) DFS 3) UAL 4) SNDL 5) BX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Digital Health +3.8% 2) Disk Drives +2.0% 3) Video Gaming +1.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ONEM, SMCI, RGEN, RYTM, OSH, AEHR, PRVA, LVS, AGL, SKYT, PEN, AKAM, IMXI and KNX
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ARCH 2) BBWI 3) T 4) NLOK 5) DHR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SMCI 2) ONEM 3) TBLT 4) CANO 5) RGEN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -4.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 42.9% of Issues Advancing, 52.7% Declining
• 7 New 52-Week Highs, 24 New Lows
• 20.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,326.0 -220.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,691.0 +.60%
  
• Vix 23.7 -.9%
• Total Put/Call .94 unch.
• TRIN/Arms 1.0 -18.7%