Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• World’s Key Workers Threaten to Hit Economy Where It Will Hurt.  
• Milley: China More Aggressive, Dangerous to US, Allies.  
• China on Alert for Evergrande Restructuring Plan After Shakeup.  
• China May Use Tiered-Data Strategy to Prevent US Delistings: FT.
  
• Macau Residents Ordered to Test Daily for Covid for a Week.    
• Favored Emerging-Market Trade Loses Luster on Recession Fears.
• Bolsonaro Starts Campaigning for Election He Says May Be Rigged.  
• Ukraine Latest: Lavrov Leans on UN; Kyiv Puts Out Call for Ships.   
• Recession Worries to Weigh on Stocks as Bonds Rise: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Edges Higher as Traders Weigh Tight Market, Slowdown Fears.
• Fed to Inflict More Pain on Economy as It Readies Big Rate Hike.
  
• Apple Begins to Show Rare Vulnerability Ahead of Economic Slowdown.  
• Monkeypox ‘Can Be Contained’ in US, White House Doctor Says. 
• Summers Says Fed Needs to Take Strong Action to Curb Inflation.
• Boeing Defense Workers Reject Contract, Plan to Strike Aug. 1.

Wall Street Journal: 

• How the Climate Elite Spread Misery. Most people are more worried about high gas and food prices, which green policies make worse.
• Joe Biden’s Political SWAT Team. The White House does damage control on crime amid growing lawlessness.
• The Fattest ‘Skinny’ Spending Bill Ever. ObamaCare expansions and drug price controls will have huge costs.
• Weak Earnings Reports Aren’t Fazing Investors.
• Cheaper Beer, Cigarettes Gain Favor as Inflation Pinches Shoppers.
• Gold Hit by Renewed Bets on Higher Yields, Stronger Dollar.
• Covid-19 Lab Companies Retrench as Rapid Tests Take Over.
• Pritzker, Newsom Boost Profiles as Many Democrats Look Beyond Biden for 2024.
• Challenges to Gun Laws Take Off, After High Court Ruling.
• Is Hybrid Work Killing Remote Summer? Yes, but It Doesn’t Have To.
• China Bets Big on Basic Chips in Self-Sufficiency Push.
• Disney Shows First R-Rated Movies on Disney+.
• Your Home Address and Other Personal Info Are a Search Away. Here’s What to Do About It.
• Pritzker, Newsom Boost Profiles as Many Democrats Look Beyond Biden for 2024.

Fox News:

• Intelligence committee members sound alarm on potential threat targeting Americans' DNA.
• China 'trying to study' Russia's failures; CIA director 'wouldn't rule out' near-term Taiwan invasion.
• Gore compares climate change deniers to botched Uvalde massacre response.   
• Recession 'is here' and will 'last for awhile,' former White House economist says.

CNBC:

• Bye bye, San Francisco: The top 7 U.S. cities homebuyers are seeking to leave.
• GM is behind Tesla in electric vehicle sales – CEO Mary Barra has bet the company that will change.
• These stocks are best for the long term, top Wall Street analysts say. 

Zero Hedge:

• About 45% Of Small US Businesses Are Freezing Hiring Amid Soaring Inflation, Labor Costs.
• Race Towards Net Zero Will Break Energy Market, Drive Up Energy Price: Analyst.
• ECB's Long Journey Into Currency Collapse Just Got A Lot Shorter. 
• Johnstone: Our Entire Civilization Is Structured Around Keeping Us From Realizing We Can Do This.
• Russia Belatedly Admits Strike On Odessa Port - Says Warship With US Missiles "Destroyed".
• The Day Fauci Reversed Course: February 27, 2020.
• Elon Musk 'Begged Forgiveness' After Allegedly Banging Sergei Brin's Wife: Report.
• Over 25% Of Home-Sellers Dropped Their Price In June In Most Metro Areas.
• Where Central Banks Have Issued Digital Currencies.
• Amusing Tales Of A Coal Bottleneck In Germany & The Failure To Plan.
• Swedish Rent Control Exposes The Problem With Government Price Controls.
• Rabobank: Welcome To Europe's New (Ab)normal.
• The Normalization Of The New Normal Reich.
• Mapped: The Top US Exports & Imports By State.
• Birx Admits She Knew COVID-19 Vaccines Were Never "Going To Protect Against Infection". 
• "Vouchers Are For Vultures": TX Lt Gov Hopeful Vilifies Parents Seeking School Choice.
• Did Russia And China Just Announce A "New Global Reserve Currency"?
• The Talented Mr. Pottinger: The US Intelligence Agent Who Pushed Lockdowns.

NewsMax:   

• Ukraine: Odesa Strike Shows It Will Not Be Easy to Export Grain.
• Dick Morris: Dems Trying to 'Divide and Conquer' GOP.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• What’s Going On? Ireland Joins Canada and Netherlands and Targets Farmers with Carbon Emissions Cuts — Further Endangering Global Food Shortages.
• State Dept ‘Bureaucrat’ Who Proclaimed ‘Kindness’ Cheers High Gas Prices Crippling American Families. 
• President Trump Promises to Rehire Military Fired by Joe Biden for Refusing Experimental Vaccine – With Backpay (VIDEO).
• Another Set-Up? — Protesters with Nazi Flags and DeSantis Signs Show Up Outside TPUSA Event in Florida — Feds Really Need to Up Their Game.
• The Atlantic Council’s ‘Digital Forensics Lab’ – Involved in Rebutting Reporting in the 2020. Election Related to Fraud – Has NO Top People with Expertise in Digital Forensics.
• Famous Bodybuilder and NPC/IFBB Pro Judge “Jerry Ward” Dies Suddenly at Age 46.
• Developing: Luke Robinson, AKA #GingerGun, Was Only Protester Filmed with a Gun on Jan. 6, The FBI Later Removed Him from their Most Wanted List — Was Also Accused of Wearing an Earpiece.
• TRUMP WAS RIGHT: China Placed Huawei Equipment Atop Cell Towers on Purchased Farm Land Near US Military Bases Capable of Disrupting and Capturing Signals.
• A Democrat-Republican Tyrannical Junta Sustained by a Rogue National Security Apparatus Undermines the American Constitutional Republic.
• Greg Gutfeld: January 6th Hearings Have Backfired On Joe Biden And The Democrats (VIDEO).
• WHO Admits Everyone Who Receives a MonkeyPox Vaccine is Part of a “Clinical Trial” to Collect Data on its Effectiveness (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• DC Rally Urges ‘Aggressive Actions’ by Congress to End CCP’s Forced Organ Harvesting of Falun Gong Practitioners.  
• Intelligence Committee Member Issues Warning of Possible Threat Targeting Americans’ DNA.
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 845,608 Reports(+3,035 from prior week) Through July 15th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs). 
• COVID Money Tracker. Tracking the Covid response.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 158.0 -3.75 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 82.25 -2.0 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.80 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,084.0 +117.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.8 +1.2%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
• S&P 500 futures -.10%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (NEM)/.66
• (PHG)/.28
• (BOH)/1.35
  

After the Close:

• (BRO)/.49
• (CDNS)/.97
• (CR)/1.84
• (FFIV)/2.23
• (KALU)/.78
• (LOGI)/.73
• (NXPI)/3.38
• (UHS)/2.09
• (WHR)/5.29
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June.

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for July is estimated to fall to -22.0 versus -17.7 in June.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan CPI report and the 2Y T-Note auction could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Ukraine Latest: Odesa Attack Condemned, US Lawmakers Visit Kyiv.
• JPMorgan’s Michele Says Bonds Have Recession Priced In.
• US Growth Is Looking Sickly as Fed Keeps Hiking Rates: Eco Week.
• Goldman Sachs Doubts Intervention on Euro, But Action on Yen Possible.
• Bond Sales to Taper Ahead of Rate Hike: U.S. Credit Week Ahead.
• Charting the Global Economy: ECB Joins Interest Rate-Hike Club.
  
• Google Fires Software Engineer Who Says He Talked to Sentient AI.  
• Biggest Oil Stock ETF Sees Short Sellers Unwind Bets After Rout.  
• The Diesel Market Slides From Mind-Blowing to Amazing.

Wall Street Journal:

• Russia Hits Ukraine Port Hours After Grain-Export Deal.
• They Thought ‘Crypto Banks’ Were Safe, and Then Came the Crash.
• Heat Wave Hits U.S. Farms, Stressing Crops and Herds.
• More Shoppers Buy Store Brands, Eating Into Big Food Companies’ Sales.
• Over 1,000 Aircraft Orders Behind: How Can Boeing Catch Up to Airbus?
• How to Deal With Product Shortages: Build Your Own Supply Chain.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (AMZN), (TIP), (MTG), (VICI), (TXN), (KO), (PEP), (MRK), (XOM) and (CVX).

Fox News: 

• Fauci now suggests there is possibility coronavirus leaked from lab after repeatedly dismissing theory.
• Dr. Deborah Birx says she 'knew' COVID vaccines would not 'protect against infection'.

CNBC:

• Amazon already knows a lot about me, but One Medical takes it to a whole new level.
• Markets face what could be the most important week of summer with Fed, earnings and economic data.
• A West Coast port worker union is fighting robots. The stakes for the supply chain are high.

Zero Hedge:

• Russia Informs Turkey It Had "Nothing To Do" With Odessa Port Attack.
• How Mattis Betrayed His Fellow Marines At The Behest Of The Deep State. 
• Tesla Is Refunding Cybertruck Reservations In Australia.
• WHO's Tedros Overrules Own Committee To Declare Monkeypox "Global Emergency".
• Biden Approves 16th Weapons Transfer To Ukraine - Total Security Aid Now Over $8BN.
• Panama's Inflation Upheaval Causing Food, Fuel Shortages. 
• Victor Davis Hanson: The Left Should Be Happy With Biden.
• Goldman Desk: We Now Have An Answer Whether "Long-Only" Demand Would Return After Barrage Of Soft Earnings.
• Nearly 30% Of Gen Z Living Permanently With Parents Amid Inflation Squeeze.
• Fish Tank: Mark Cuban Has Posted A Combined Net Loss On His 80+ Shark Tank Investments.
• How Central Planners Sow Seeds Of Economic Ruin.
• "All Of A Sudden, It Came To A Halt": After Posting Fresh Records Just Months Earlier, RV Industry Grinds To A Halt.
• The Fed Risks "Imploding The Highly Levered Global Financial System".
• David Stockman On Europe's Economic Suicide...
• UK Teenagers Increasingly Getting News From CCP-Backed TikTok.
• China And Japan Hold The Keys To Euro Recovery.
• Germans Taking Fewer Showers In Response To Cost Of Living Crisis.
• China Property: Is there potential here to derail things...?
• Bannon Found Guilty Of Contempt Of Congress For Defying J6 Subpoena.
• US Army Embraces "EV Future" With New Electric Hummer.
• Digital Authoritarianism: AI Surveillance Signals The Death Of Privacy.
• President's Party Up Against Poor Odds In The Midterms.
• Cadillac Reveals New $300,000 Electric Sedan.
• These Are The 20 Nations With The Fastest Declining Populations.
• Texas GOP Training 5,000 Election Workers, Poll Watchers To Improve Election Integrity: Spokesman.
• What We Know About The 22-Year-Old Who Stopped A Mass Shooting In Indiana.
• DOJ Sabotaged Trump Release Of Russiagate Docs.

MarketWatch.com:       

• Will the Federal Reserve kill the stock-market bounce?

NewsMax:

• WHO: Monkeypox Outbreak Global Health Emergency.  
• Russian Missiles Hit Port, Threaten Grain Deal. 

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• LOCK HER UP! Dr. Birx Admits She Knew the Dangerous Experimental mRNA Vaccines Would Not Work – Half of the People Who Died Were Vaccinated (VIDEO).
• J6 Defendant Mark Aungst Who Pled Guilty to “Parading in US Capitol” Commits Suicide Before Sentencing.
• Election Heroes Are Stopping Fraudulent Voting.
• MUST HAPPEN: Trump Promises to Gut and Fire “Tens of Thousands of Civil Servants” if and When He Wins in 2024.
• US Public Broadcasting Encourages People to Eat “Tasty” Insects to Help Battle Climate Change.
• EXCLUSIVE: Key Excerpts from President Trump’s Speech Tonight in Prescott Valley, Arizona – Kari Lake “Will Be One of the Fiercest Voices in the Country Standing Up Against Joe Biden’s Open Borders Catastrophe”.
• LA County Public Health Director Spotted Maskless at MLB All-Star Game as She Pushes to Reimpose Mask Mandate (VIDEO).
• Michigan City Decriminalizes Public Urination, Defecation, and Littering — For Equity!
• New Billboard in Times Square Trolls ‘Elite Pete’ Buttigieg — ‘Let Them Drive Electric Cars!’.
• Tyrant Trudeau Moves Forward with Plan to Reduce Fertilizer Use and Bankrupt Farmers During Global Food Shortage Emergency.
• Crayola Posts Transgender ‘Model’ Wearing a Chain-Link Bra Over Clothing to Virtue Signal About Diversity.
• Trans Pedophile Convicted of Making Child Porn With 7-Year-Old Daughter and Transgender Roommates Has Been Moved to Women’s Prison.

The Epoch Times:

• Unprecedented FBI, MI5, Joint Warning on CCP is Equal to ‘Break Glass in Case of Emergency’: Expert.
• Chinese-Made Vehicle GPS Tracker Has ‘Severe Vulnerabilities’: Report.
• House Democrats Block Legislative Amendment to Prevent US Oil Sales to China.
• TikTok’s Chinese Owner Spent Record-High $2.14 Million on Lobbying.
• China Threatens ‘Every Instrument of National Power’: Space Force Chief.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 842,573 Reports(+3,276 from prior week) Through July 8th, 2022. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Surface-to-Air Missiles Need Chips Too, Pentagon Tells Congress.  
• Ukraine Downgraded by Fitch as ‘Default-Like’ Process Begins.
• ‘Historic’ Correction Grips Canada’s Housing Market, RBC Says.
  
• Verizon Shares Decline Most Since 2008 After Outlook Cut.
• Broken Bulls, Big Breadth: Weighing a Case for a Turn in Stocks.  
• Snap Craters as Sales Disappoint, Erasing $130 Billion From Sector.
• California Governor Calls for No New Gas Plants in Climate Fight.  
• American Airlines Cuts 1,175 Summer Flights to Ease Disruptions.  
• Apartment and Warehouse Deals Start to Sputter as Rates Sting.  
• Public Pensions Face Worst Funding Decline Since Great Recession.  
• Larry Summers Says Raise Taxes ‘Right Now’ to Help Battle Inflation.  
• Consumers Go Down Market to Keep Racking Up Credit Card Debt.  
• Consumer Confidence Drops as Inflation Squeezes US Shoppers. 
• Crypto Stocks Get Boost From Retail Traders Who Drove Meme Craze.

Wall Street Journal:

• Volkswagen’s CEO Ousted After Pivot to Electric Vehicles.
• Snap, Twitter Spark Fears of Broader Ad-Market Decline.
• Europe Is Tested Anew, This Time by Energy, Inflation and Putin.
• Strong U.S. Dollar Sends Ripples Around the World.
• The World Is Thirsty for America’s Natural Gas.

Fox News: 

• White House breaks silence on claims Biden selling US oil from reserves to China as prices soar at home.
• TUCKER CARLSON: Biden should be impeached for sending our natural assets to our enemy China.
• John Kirby dodges question on whether draining strategic oil reserves hurts national security.
• Controversial Dem DA on the ropes with voters suffers second blow in his office.
• Experts slam brakes on Biden admin's claim about electric vehicles.

CNBC:

• Here are the three big reasons there’s an executive exodus at retailers, from Gap to GameStop.
• Biden administration considering public health emergency for monkeypox.
• Apple’s new car software could be a trojan horse into the automotive industry.
• Markets face what could be the most important week of summer with Fed, earnings and economic data.
• Shippers are avoiding the Port of Oakland as trucker protests over gig worker law stop flow of trade.
• Russia slashes key interest rate by 150 basis points in shock move.
• Here’s how to prepare for and thrive in a recession.

Zero Hedge:

• Wall Street's Biggest Bear: One Down, But Two More Things Must Happen Before Stocks Bottom.
• Bannon Found Guilty Of Contempt Of Congress For Defying J6 Subpoena.
• Texas GOP Training 5,000 Election Workers, Poll Watchers To Improve Election Integrity: Spokesman.
• Myth Busted: Trump Ordered Officials To 'Make Sure' J6 Was 'Safe Event'.
• Families Brawl At Disney World As The Company Brand Decays.
• These Are The World's Highest-Grossing Companies.
• Republican Mayra Flores Accuses Democrat Opponent Of Paying Blogger For Racist Posts.
• It's "Embarrassing" - Aussie Govt Probes Central Bank's Terrible Track-Record.
• Pennsylvania Prohibits 'Zuck Bucks' Ahead Of 2022 Midterms. 
• US Fighter Jets Now Under Consideration For Ukraine: Air Force Chief.
• "Stupid, Delusional" Three Arrows Founders Emerge From Hiding To Discuss Their "Regrettable" Collapse.
• Missouri Sheriff Refuses To Hand Over Gun Owners' Info To FBI: 'I Will Go Down With The Ship'.
• SPX posts best week in a month, despite Friday's losses, ahead of FOMC and Big Tech reports - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Bonds & Bitcoin Soar On Week As Dismal Data Drives Dovish Dive In Rate-Hike Odds.

MarketWatch.com:           

• Here are 5 things we’ve learned so far from earnings season.
• It’s the end of ‘fantasyland’ for Big Tech and its workers.

NewsMax:

• House Dems Nix Resolution Condemning Attacks on Churches, Pro-life Groups.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Steve Bannon Blasts “Gutless” January 6 Committee Members After Jury Returns Guilty Verdict in Contempt Trial (VIDEO).
• White House Covid Czar Says Joe Biden Ate His Breakfast and Lunch Fully: “He Showed Me His Plate!”… Like a 3-Year-Old Child (VIDEO).
• Biden Energy Secretary CHEERS Record Gas Prices, Destruction of US Middle Class: “We’re Witnessing Beginning of One of Most Significant Events in Human History”.
• China’s Economy Falling Apart – Billionaires Want Out – Bankrupt Property Management Company Evergrande Replaces CEO.
•  WAYNE ROOT: 33 Dead & Sick Friends Since Our Wedding Only 8 Months Ago. All 33 Vaxxed. A “Vaccine Death & Disease Cluster.”.
• Biden at Higher Risk for Stroke as Doctor Stops Blood Thinner Due to Paxlovid Treatment for COVID.
• Former South Carolina Quarterback MVP Phil Petty Dies at 43 — Third Former Football Player to Die in Last 7 Days.
• Exclusive: Joe Biden Is Filling Up Maine Hotels to House His Illegal Migrants — Illegals Get Better Government Freebies than Low Income US Workers.
• Medical Examiner Reveals 24-Year-Old Ex-Miami Hurricanes Football Player Died of a Heart Attack.
• BREAKING: DOJ Working on Hunter Biden Plea Deal Despite Millions from China, Russia, Ukraine, etc. When His Dad was Obama’s VP — While Jan 6 Protesters Rot in DC Gulag.
• FLASHBACK: IT and Data Experts in Georgia Uncovered 200,000 Votes Switched from President Trump or Deleted, Another Million Suspicious Votes, Yet Raffensperger Certified Results for Biden.
• SHOCKING: On November 4th, 2020, Georgia Showed 100% Reporting.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 842,573 Reports(+3,276 from prior week) Through July 8th, 2022. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Earnings Outlook Worries, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.3 +.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .65% -47.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,044.0 -248.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.20 -.84%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.1 -1.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.2 -.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 87.0 -5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.05 +12.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.99 +83.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 83.85 +.01%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 501.24 +.74%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 464.0 -20.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 115.83 -3.3%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 229.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 158.97 -3.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 354.39 +.27%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.4 +.15%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11,472.0 -8.6%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.25 basis points -1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 37.25 basis points +7.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.25 basis points -1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  132.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.62 +.81%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .95 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.93 -.02%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.39% -3.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -20.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.0 USD/Metric Tonne +4.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -64.40 -4.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -92.20 -30.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 21.9 +.1 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 +5.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for September 21st FOMC meeting: 58.2%(+17.8 percentage points) chance of 2.75%-3.0%. Highest target rate probability for November 2nd meeting: 46.4%(+17.9 percentage points) chance of 3.0%-3.25%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 266 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 15.3%(-.4 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -71.3%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -214 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -74 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -65 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -4.2% 2) Internet -4.1% 3) Disk Drives -3.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• WIRE, T, LAD, MU, GMED, SHYF, IIPR, NVST, PACW, MORF, DV, WING, RYTM, NVDA, CRSR, ELF, AEHR, RIVN, MRVL, DOMO, COF, WDC, GOOG, SAVA, GOOGL, CLF, ALGN, COIN, MAT, RHI, XM, VERV, CELH, DASH, AGL, CDLX, SNOW, ISRG, SI, VITL, VZ, BLNK, META, RLAY, DT, GME, GNTX, TTD, MARA, AMC, CDMO, AFRM, U, ROKU, AMN, AI, SKYT, PINS, SIGA, SIVB and CCRN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HCA 2) SNAP 3) NCR 4) ISRG 5) GOOG
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SNAP 2) PINS 3) STX 4) VZ 5) COIN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Utilities +1.1% 2) Oil Service +.8% 3) Shipping +.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HCA, UFPI, VICR, THC, POOL and TH
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) COF 2) ATUS 3) ISRG 4) SNAP 5) AXP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AAMC 2) UFPI 3) HCA 4) THC 5) SLB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume