Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -2.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -4.6% 2) Retail -3.5% 3) Semis -3.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• LAND, IIVI, BXSL, TSE, ASTS, KRO, TGT, AEHR, BE, NUVA, AVTR, LAW, NOVA, VRDN, ANAB, CRNC, ACLS, OSH, FND, SITM, AZTA, VTYX, AEO, WMS, TOST, ADI, RETA, STEM, CRBU, RXRX, SKYT, EPR, HRMY, OPCH, JKHY, BGFV, DVAX, PLCE, ARVN, DNUT, ENVX, BMEA and BPMC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BBIG 2) SAVA 3) LQD 4) ADI 5) TGT
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DNUT 2) ENDP 3) TUYA 4) WEBR 5) TEVA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -1.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Shipping +.4% 2) Energy +.4% 3) Utilities +.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SAVA, BBBY, COGT, CCRN, FAZE, BL and A
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SAVA 2) BBIG 3) GNUS 4) CARG 5) LYV

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) A 2) EAR 3) BBIG 4) GNUS 5) SRAD
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -9.9% Below 100-Day Average 
• 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
• 16.1% of Issues Advancing, 80.4% Declining
• 15 New 52-Week Highs, 23 New Lows
• 39.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,950.0 +159.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,933.17 -.27%
  
• Vix 20.4 +3.7%
• Total Put/Call .90 +7.1%
• TRIN/Arms .88 +22.2%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                       

• China Surprise Data Could Spell R-e-c-e-s-s-i-o-n.  
• Chipmakers Are Flashing More Warnings on the Global Economy.  
• Chipmakers’ Pandemic Boom Turns to Bust as Recession Looms.
• UK Pubs and Restaurants to Keep Pushing Up Menu Prices
• American Buyers Are Snapping Up Homes in France.  
• Stocks Set for Firm Asia Open as Oil Holds Losses: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Edges Higher From Six-Month Low as Traders Weigh Iran Supply.
• Bill Gates and the Secret Push to Save Biden’s Climate Bill.
  
• The Inflation Reduction Act Is a Climate Bill. Just Don’t Call It One.
• These Six Cities Are Emerging as New Expat Hot Spots.  
• Chasing Stocks Back in Vogue From Big Managers to Options Geeks.  
• First Zantac Cancer Case Set for Trial in US Settles Instead.  
• America’s $7 Trillion Retirement Crisis Is Only Getting Worse.   
• Morgan Stanley Sees Risk of S&P 500 Profit Reversal on Leverage.

Wall Street Journal:    

• Defunding the Police and Consequences. A Chicago suburb limits its response to crimes amid a police shortage.
• Retailers Gain as Shoppers Pay More for Fewer Goods.
• $9 Natural Gas is Back.
• Education Department Forgives $3.9 Billion in Debt for Former ITT Tech Students.
• FDA Clears Hearing Aids for Over-the-Counter Sale.
• U.S. to Buy Ukraine Grain, as Ship Traffic Increases.
• Germany to Keep Last Three Nuclear-Power Plants Running.
• U.S. Approves Nearly All Tech-Export Requests to China.
• China’s Economy-Boosting Measures Don’t Match Past Efforts.
• China’s Ambassador Accuses U.S. of Exacerbating Crisis Over Taiwan.
• States Expand Sales-Tax Holidays as Americans Feel Price Increases.

Fox News:

• Republicans get mixed results from new poll as longtime senator lags behind Democrat challenger.
• LIVE UPDATES:Murkowski and Cheney fight for their jobs in key primary races.

CNBC.com:

• Bed Bath & Beyond soars 70% as meme traders talk up Ryan Cohen’s call options purchase.
• Apple and Meta headsets could face a big challenge: Sticker shock.

MarketWatch:        

• Nouriel Roubini says investors are ‘delusional’ if they expect the Fed to cut rates next year.
  
• Bed Bath & Beyond’s meme stock rockets more than 30% on record volume, defying yet another analyst’s ‘sell’ call.
  
• Fewer younger people say they are investing in the stock market — as inflation eats into their savings.

Zero Hedge:

• "Mood No Longer Apocalyptic": Wall Street's Most Accurate Strategist Says Start Shorting S&P Now.
• Chinese Factories Ration Electricity As Heatwave Disrupts Hydropower Generation.
• Record Number Of Homebuyers Walk Away From Contracts As Builders Reel Amid Glut Of Unsold Houses.
• Minneapolis Public Schools Promise To Layoff White Teachers Before Cutting "Educators Of Color".
• Congressman: "Tyranny" Is Coming "Right Into Everyone's Living Room Very Very Shortly".
• US stock markets were choppy amid mixed data releases although retailers were lifted by earnings - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• 72% Of Millennials Have Regrets About Homes They Overpaid Or Settled For In 2021 And 2022.
• WTI Rises After API Shows Huge Gasoline Draw.
• To buy or to sell (up here).
• Inflation Makes Everybody Poorer (And It's Government's Fault).
• Will They Roll Or Won't They? Nomura Warns Of "Lumpy Gamma" Set To Expire This Friday.
• We Are Not The First Civilization To Collapse, But We Will Probably Be The Last.
• SPX eclipses key resistance in wake of mixed data and retail earnings - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Massive Meme Meltup Sparks Marketwide Squeeze, Until Hartnett Says "Sell".

Newsmax:  

• Manafort to Newsmax: Affidavit Will 'Expose the Corruption' of DOJ.
• Rasmussen Poll: 36 Percent Have Favorable View of AG Garland.
• Rep. Waltz: US 'Credibility Is Ruined' Over Afghanistan.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Biden Inflation Act Promises Tax Credit Worth Up To $7,500 For New Electric Vehicle Buyers – Ford Increases Price Of Electric Vehicles By Up to $8,500.
• Project Veritas: DHS Whistleblower Leaks New Joint Intelligence Bulletin on ‘Domestic Violent Extremists’ Following FBI Raid on Mar-a-Lago.
• Joe Biden as He Signs Massive Spending Bill that Will Raise Taxes on Middle Class: “The American People Have Won, and Special Interests Lost” (VIDEO).
• Louisiana Secretary of State Leads the Nation – Ends ERIC in State and Creates Directive to Keep 2020 Election Materials.
• Starbucks Asks Labor Board to Suspend Mail-in Ballot Union Elections, Requests ALL Future Elections be Held In Person.
• 41-Year-Old Singer and Theater Actor Darius Campbell Danesh ‘Dies Suddenly’ at Home – Cause of Death Remains Unknown.
• Former Washington State Coach Nick Rolovich Files $25 Million Lawsuit After He was Fired for Refusing COVID Jab.
• Update: Marxist Radical George Gascon Won His Recall with 27% of Ballots Having an Invalid Signature.
• This is Why Democrats Are Not Worried about 2020 — The Fix Is In… Postal Service Institutionalizes Ballot Interference Scheme with New Mail-in Ballot Division.
  

The Epoch Times:

• China Using Numerous Monitoring Cameras and Big Data to Suppress Religious Groups and Rights Defenders, Files Show.
• Rep. Perry: Biden’s DOJ Is Distracting Americans From CCP Influence in US.
• Unfinished Buildings in China Put Trillions of Chinese Bank Loans at Risk.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 854,081 Reports(+2,712 from prior week) Through August 5th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.75 -6.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 71.5 -.25 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.42 -.04%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,842.0 +50.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.45 +.05%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.32%.

• S&P 500 futures +.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.02%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ADI)/2.43
• (DNUT)/.10
• (LOW)/4.59
• (PFGC)/1.04
• (TGT)/.72
• (PLCE)/.77
• (TJX)/.67
  

After the Close:

• (BBWI)/.41
• (CSCO)/.82
• (SNPS)/1.99
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST:

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for July is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +1.0% gain in June.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for July is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +1.0% gain in June.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for July is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.7% gain in June.  

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for June is estimated to rise +1.4% versus a +1.4% gain in May.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -258,830 barrels versus a +5,457,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,180,330 barrels versus a -4,978,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +910,500 barrels versus a +2,166,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.38% versus a +3.3% gain prior.

2:00 pm EST

• FOMC Meeting Minutes for July 27. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, UK CPI report, Eurozone GDP report, 20Y T-Bond auction and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Less Hawkish Fed Hopes, Diminished Earnings Outlook Fears, Technical Buying, Retail/Defense Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.6 -2.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.1% -2.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,840.0 +195.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.63 +.92%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.8 +.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 41.0 -1.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 111.0 +4.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .83 -8.8%

• NYSE Arms .68 -46.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.51 +.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 389.38 -.17%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 323.0 +4.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.61 +2.6%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 216.0 basis points +8.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.80 -4.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 292.99 +2.4%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.73 +1.1%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 9,018.0 +4.0%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 30.5 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 32.75 basis points -7.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.0 basis points +1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  114.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.47 -.28%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .96 -3.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.47 -.11%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.60% +4.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -43.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.25 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -31.5 +2.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -49.0 -.7 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.1 +.5 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 236.43 +.01:  Growth Rate +16.7% +1.3 percentage points, P/E 18.3 +.1 point
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +1.81% -64.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.09 +11.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 49.6%(-.2 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 45.4%(+1.4 percentage points) chance of 3.50%-3.75%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 224 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 12.9%(+.4 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -72.9%(+2.1 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +26 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +22 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +49 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% net long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -2.1% 2) Digital Health -1.5% 3) Biotech -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• RARE, CELH, SGFY, SDGR, VRNS, STEEM, BILL, PRVA, EXFY, INFA, AMEH, APP, RUN, MRNA, RCM, CCRN, ILMN, GTLB, CRNC, MARA, CERT, CERE, FLGT, SNOW, LITE, AEHR, ZM, NARI, RNG, ACLS, ZIP, AMN, TMDX, NOVA, XAIR, DVAX, SMR, BE, ALHC, TPIC and ALBO
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XPO 2) BBBY 3) KRE 4) EWI 5) HD
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HALL 2) POL 3) SE 4) MF 5) MAXN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume