Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -1.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -4.3% 2) Internet -2.7% 3) Banks -2.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PLL, SIVB, FLYW, CRNC, JWN, EVR, TDOC, GME, MP, ABNB, RNA, BAC, DVAX, KSS, NTLA, SLG, BROS, NTLA, BCRX, PGNY, RCUS, PEPG, META, PAR, SI, KYMR, ASAN, ASPN, MTCH, AXON, STEM, COIN, PLUG, AFRM, ENPH, PARA, NVAX, SG, AEHR, U, KRTX, NRDS, MDGL, FLNC, APP
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AX 2) ARI 3) BXMT 4) ATUS 5) ITB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HLF 2) MEIP 3) MRTX 4) PARA 5) SI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +1.7% 2) Utilities +.1% 3) Gold & Silver -.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• VVNT, GIII, FNKO, TXT, GTLB and CDNA
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VFC 2) ATUS 3) SIG 4) AVXL 5) PAA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) POWL 2) SUMO 3) SIG 4) SATX 5) GTLB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -4.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
• 31.7% of Issues Advancing, 64.2% Declining
• 22 New 52-Week Highs, 66 New Lows
• 43.3%(-1.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.0 -7.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 47.9 -3.8%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,552.9 -.65%
  
• Vix 21.6 +4.1%
• Total Put/Call 1.01 +8.6%
• TRIN/Arms 1.04 -56.9% 

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                  

• Hu Jintao Appears in Public for First Time Since Congress Exit.   
• UK’s Soaring Inflation Rate Erodes Jump in Shop Sales, BRC Says.  
• The Year’s Big Yen Short Set for a Dramatic U-Turn in 2023.
• ‘Huge, Missing and Growing’: $65 Trillion in Dollar Debt Spurs Worry.  
• Asian Stocks Fall as Data Bolster Higher Fed Peak: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Snaps Two-Day Drop With China Demand and Russia Cap in Focus.
• Bitcoin’s Status Quo Is Making Some Long-Time Observers Nervous.  
• US Army Taps Bell Textron for Helicopter of the Future.  
• North Carolina’s Blackout-by-Gunfire Exposes Risks to Power Grid.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Altered Himars Rocket Launchers to Keep Ukraine From Firing Missiles Into Russia.
• PepsiCo to Cut Hundreds of Jobs in North America.
• Where Did the Missing Money Go? Sam Bankman-Fried Says He Can Only Guess.
• North Carolina Residents Could Be Without Power for Days After Gunfire Attack.
• Fed to Weigh Higher Rates Next Year.
• Beijing Seeks Positive Spin on Covid Easing.
• FTX Effort to Save Itself Failed on Questionable Assets.
• Tim Cook’s Bad Day on China. Apple speaks out boldly at home, but is silent about Beijing’s growing oppression.
• Europeans Cut Spending in Sign of Coming Recession.

Fox News:

• NBC blasted over correspondent's absence after scrubbed Pelosi report.
• Teacher tells kids grammar is part of 'White supremacy'.

CNBC.com:

• Supreme Court likely to rule that Biden student loan plan is illegal, experts say.
• Salesforce executive exits help push stock to its lowest point since March 2020.
• Some Meta employees claim they’re not getting promised severance.
• Sam Bankman-Fried could face years in prison over FTX’s $32 billion meltdown.
• The Fed can’t stop raising interest rates due to these 4 factors, Jim Cramer says.

MarketWatch:               

• Why Monday’s stock-market rout should be a wake up call for investors.  
• This little-known but spot-on economic indicator says recession and lower stock prices are all but certain.  
• Even the Winklevoss twins aren’t immune to the crypto crisis, with $900M of their customers’ money frozen in wake of FTX collapse.

Zero Hedge:

• "The Perfect Bull Trap": Mike Wilson Turns Bearish Again, Says The Rally Is Over.
• Airbases Deep Inside Russia Rocked By Explosions; New Wave Of Airstrikes Pummel Ukraine. 
• Global Wages Take A Hit As Inflation Eats Into Paychecks. 
• Everything And Everybody Is More Important Than You.
• Democrat Head Of Armed Services Committee Says Ukraine Oversight Push "Russian Propaganda".
• The Gall Of Lockdowners Who Support China's Anti-Lockdown Protests.
• BofA Finds Increasing Number Of Wealthier Americans Now Shop At Value Supermarkets.
• FBI Held "Weekly Meetings" With Big Tech Ahead Of 2020 Election, "Sent Lists Of URLs And Accounts" To Be Censored.
• We have seen this movie before.
• Ron Paul: The 'Twitter Papers' Reveal The Totalitarians Among Us.
• PepsiCo To Lay Off Hundreds After Price-Hikes As Consumer 'Strength' Questioned.
• If You Really Wanted To Destroy The United States, Then...
• US stocks declined as yields and the dollar gained on strong ISM Services data - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• "A Cautionary Tale For Everyone": The Media Mob Turns On Taibbi.
• Yield surge hits stocks after ISM Services tops expectations - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Stocks, Bonds, Bullion, & Black Gold Battered As 'Soft Landing' Hopes Fade.

Newsmax:   

• Rep. Sessions: DOJ Used as Dem 'Subsidiary'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Former EcoHealth Vice President Dr. Andrew Huff Says “Dr. Fauci Is Continuing to Be Dr. Fauci – A Liar” – When Confronted with Fauci’s Claims During Deposition (AUDIO).
• Ketanji Brown Jackson Suggests Christmas Classic “It’s a Wonderful Life” is Fodder For White Supremacists in Oral Arguments Over Free Speech Case (AUDIO).
• EXCLUSIVE: Maricopa County Poll Worker’s Affidavit Reveals How Democrats With Out-of-State Driver’s Licenses And No Voter Registration Were Allowed To Vote.
• Karine Jean-Pierre Lashes Out at Elon Musk, Calls Twitter’s Censorship of the New York Post Story on Hunter Biden’s Laptop “a Distraction” (VIDEO).
• Woke Hollywood Director James Cameron Calls Testosterone a “Toxin” That Must Be Expelled From System.
• BREAKING: Democrat Darling and Conman Michael Avenatti Gets 14 Years in Prison for Embezzling Millions.
• Karine Jean-Pierre Can’t Say Why Joe Biden Didn’t Campaign For Warnock (VIDEO).
• Fort Lauderdale Mayor Dean Trantalis Deflects From Sexualization of School Curriculums, Blames Parents for Not “Preparing” Their Kids for School.
• Dirty Mitch McConnell Joins Pelosi and Schumer to Agree to Pass JCPA Media Cartel Bailout that Allows Censorship of Conservative Media.
• Military Horses Are Mysteriously Dying.
• FBI Covertly Surveiled Rudy Giuliani for Years While Ignoring Hunter’s Laptop – Now Ignores $24 Million in Donations to Sen. Warnock in GA from Unemployed “Campaign Finance Mules”.
• Fauci’s Agency Has Tortured Animals FOR YEARS as First Reported by TGP and Congress Now Wants Answers!

The Epoch Times:

• US Designates Iran, China as Countries of Concern Over Religious Freedom.

Twitter: 

• @UnWokablePod - Give Me Liberty or Give Me Death. (video)
• @backtolife_2003 - JetBlue shuns unvaccinated workers yet hires a violent felon to fly its planes. (video)
• @TPostMillenial - Kari Lake reacts to the revelation that Katie Hobbs' office contacted Twitter to censor posts. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 903,327 Reports(+2,295 from prior week) Through November 25th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 126.75 -4.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 74.5 -2.0 basis points. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 108.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.09%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.7 +.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  49.9 +.07%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.50 -1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.2 -.41%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.10%.

• S&P 500 futures +.21%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.24%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AZO)/25.28
• (CONN)/-.83
• (SIG)/.32
  

After the Close:

• (AVAV)/.24
• (CASY)/3.13
• (PLAY)/.04
• (MDB)/-.17
• (SWBI)/.44
• (SFIX)/-.47
• (TOL)/3.94
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Balance for Oct. is estimated to widen to -$80.0B versus -$73.3B in Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Georgia Senate runoff election, RBA statement, weekly US retail sales reports, Truist Industrials/Services Summit, Citi Consumer Conference, Morgan Stanley Consumer/Retail Conference, Goldman Financial Services Conference and the (NSC) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Diminishing Fed Pivot Hopes, Technical Selling, Commodity/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.1 +10.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.31%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 49.8 -.17%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 148.2 +1.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.7 +.17%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 41.7 +3.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 103.0 -8.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .90 +7.1%

• NYSE Arms 2.11 +137.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.60 +4.0%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 371.61 +.29%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 409.0 +28.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 99.49 +1.7% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 438.79 -5.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 187.0 basis points -4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 127.21 -2.97%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 241.75 +4.61%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.29 +.99%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 31.25 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 48.5 basis points +3.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -33.25 basis points +1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  142.0 +7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 124.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.20 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.69 -.46%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.28% -2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -79.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.50 USD/Metric Tonne -1.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 134.9 euros/megawatt-hour -.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.7 +6.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.5 +4.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .6 +.4 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.14 -.01:  Growth Rate +11.3% unch, P/E 17.3 -.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.46 -4.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.84% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.87% unch.: CPI YoY +7.49% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Feb. 1st FOMC meeting: 49.6%(+4.7 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for March 22nd meeting: 41.0%(+8.7 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 91 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.2%(+.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -79.4%(+1.1 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -190 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -85 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -23 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower:  On losses in my tech/medical/industrial/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -2.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Banks -4.7% 2) Oil Service -3.6% 3) Internet -3.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SNPS, IGMS, TGT, U, SDGR, SM, ALB, RCUS, DENN, CORT, DINO, PLL, VAC, PBF, RRC, TFC, ZUMZ, FRC, CYTK, KEY, ESTC, CCRN, YOU, SR, IPI, SLG, MDGL, SD, TSLA, PGNY, NRDS, OVV, GTLB, BCRX, CWH, MSTR, ZION, SBNY, SI, EWBC, LIP, NTLA, PATH, SNOW, NET, APP, LNTH, CRK, AFRM, ASAN, VFC, VERV and AVXL
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EWC 2) ARKG 3) KRE 4) ATUS 5) EWJ
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) RXT 2) TOPS 3) VFC 4) OPEN 5) SI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume