Wednesday, May 03, 2023

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:  

Zero Hedge:
Wall Street Journal:
 Newsmax:
Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
Twitter: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.75 +2.75 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 76.5 +1.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.8 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 51.8 -.3%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.12 -1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.4 +1.6%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.51%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.30%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Fed Rate-Hike Pause Hopes, Dollar Weakness, Short-Covering, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.8 +.2%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .63%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 52.9 +.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 156.6 -.31%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.91 +.2%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.2 -.47% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 +22.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .95 -6.9%
  • NYSE Arms .99 -34.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.8 +.77%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 405.9 +1.3%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 413.0 +22.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 103.0 +.29% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 374.6 +1.6%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 187.0 basis points -5.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 133.0 +2.4%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 241.19 -.67%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.7 -.17%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 29.5 basis points -2.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 14.5 basis points -3.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.0 +.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 163.0 -5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 702.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 93.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.7 +.44%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.20% +6.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.77%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.8 euros/megawatt-hour -2.0%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 16.6 +4.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 12.6 +.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 35.1 +.4 point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 227.5 +.12:  Growth Rate +2.1% -.1 percentage point, P/E 18.1 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.26% unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .05 +14.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.59 +1.0 basis point
  • US Yield Curve -54.75 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.84% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.66% unch.: CPI YoY +5.19% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 +2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 77.1%(-5.7 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 52.5%(-3.6 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -308 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -101 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +139 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/utility/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Restaurants -2.7% 2) Gambling -1.1% 3) Energy -1.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • DUOL, WBA, YUM, VNOM, DEI, MLCO, UTHR, TRI, SHC, NICE, EAT, DCPH, SMG, FROG, KRP, HESM, TRIP, MPC, PGR, ADBE, WK, SFM, SPWR, DENN, VOYA, TCOM, CVI, NBIX, PATH, TT, MKTX, LYTS, CLH, MSTR, GTLB, SBGI, DGRG, ASAI, PCRX, RIOT, ADNT, FIVN, ASH, VIRT, SPR, AMCR, SBUX, AMD, HPK, ANDE, WIX, SSTK, FVRR, AVNS, SQSP, SPT, EL, MRCY, NRDS and IEP
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) RSP 2) TRIP 3) EL 4) IEP 5) CHGG
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) IEP 2) EL 3) SPR 4) LCIN 5) NBIX
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +1.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • Computer Hardware +2.9% 2) Airlines +2.4% 3) Regional Banks +2.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • IMGN, RUTH, QTRX, SMCI, VREX, CHGG, COCO, GNRC, CWH, BLDR, BFAM, OHI, WING, CABA, LTHM, DICE, INBX, SITE, LLY, LPX, CLX, PEN, INGR, PACB, KHC, CATY, DYN, FRSH and DIN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CHGG 2) IEP 3) EL 4) FAST 5) FANG
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) IMGN 2) SMCI 3) MTRN 4) RXO 5) ROCK

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 
  • (ATI)/.48
  • (AEP)/1.12
  • (BUD)/.60
  • (APTV)/.91
  • (MT)/.80
  • (BDX)/2.75
  • (BWA)/1.11
  • (CAH)/1.49
  • (CARS)/.44
  • (CGNX)/.09
  • (COP)/2.07
  • (DDOG)/.24
  • (DISH)/.39
  • (H)/.51
  • (ICE)/1.40
  • (IRM)/.68
  • (ITRI)/.11
  • (ITT)/1.12
  • (JLL)/1.76
  • (K)/1.00
  • (MLM)/1.02
  • (MRNA)/-1.74
  • (PZZA)/.67
  • (PH)/5.01
  • (PTON)/-.48
  • (PENN)/.36
  • (PBI)/.00
  • (PPL)/.45
  • (PWR)/1.12
  • (REGN)/9.46
  • (RCL)/-.69
  • (SHAK)/-.08
  • (SHOP)/-.04
  • (SWK)/-.74
  • (STWD)/.50
  • (VMC)/.62
  • (W)/-1.71
  • (XPO)/.46
  • (ZTS)/1.25
After the Close: 
  • (AAON)/.53
  • (AES)/.22
  • (AIG)/1.42
  • (AAPL)/1.43
  • (BGS)/.26
  • (SQ)/.34
  • (BKNG)/10.79
  • (CVNA)/-1.91
  • (CHUY)/.37
  • (CRUS)/.84
  • (COIN)/-.87 
  • (ED)/1.57
  • (DASH)/.14
  • (DKNG)/-.84
  • (DBX)/.36
  • (LOCO)/.11
  • (EOG)/2.49
  • (EXPE)/.03
  • (FTNT)/.29
  • (GT)/-.24
  • (LYFT)/-.08
  • (MTZ)/-.57
  • (MCHP)/1.62
  • (MNST)/.34
  • (NCR(/.49
  • (POST)/.81
  • (RMAX)/.27
  • (RRR)/.49
  • (RDFN)/-1.01
  • (TXRH)/1.36
  • (TRUP)/-.04
  • (YELP)/.40

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST:
  • Challenger Job Cuts YoY for April.
8:30 am EST:
  • The Trade Balance for March is estimated at -$63.1B versus -$70.5B in Feb.
  • Non-Farm Productivity for 1Q is estimated to fall -2.0% versus a +1.7% gain in 4Q.
  • Unit Labor Costs for 1Q are estimated to rise +5.5% versus a +3.2% gain in 4Q.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 240K versus 230K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1865K versus 1858K prior.
Upcoming Splits
  • (SMH) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The ECB decision, Australia Trade Balance report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (SCS) investor day and the (NET) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • NYSE Volume Running -9.5% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.2 +.6
  • 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
  • 55.7% of Issues Advancing, 41.5% Declining
  • 57 New 52-Week Highs, 51 New Lows
  • 39.7%(+3.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 46.0 +3
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 52.6 +.1%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,130.0 +.4%
  • 1-Day Vix 21.6 +9.1%
  • Vix 18.5 +4.0% 
  • Total Put/Call .79 -22.6%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.20 -20.5%