Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (KMX)/.46
• (STZ)/2.11
• (FAST)/.53
• (LOVE)/1.93
  

After the Close: 

• (WAFD)/.40
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• PPI Final Demand MoM for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.6% gain in .
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in Feb.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 215K versus 221K the prior week. 
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1802K versus 1791K prior.

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Collins speaking, ECB Meeting, 30Y T-Bond auction, OPEC Monthly Report, WASDE reort, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (HLIT) investor day, (MRVL) analyst meeting, (FUL) annual meeting and the (DOW) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -1.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.8 -.6
  
• 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
• 11.1% of Issues Advancing, 87.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .69 -8.0%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$385.0M
  
• 22 New 52-Week Highs, 36 New Lows
• 58.9% (-6.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.0 -7.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 67.9 +.4%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 144.0 -.30%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,002.5 +.6%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 54.0 (Neutral) -2.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 14.0 -22.5%
  
• Vix 15.9 +6.1%
  
• Total Put/Call .96 -6.8%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.0 -.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 68.75 -2.0 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 108.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.8 +.02%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 68.7 +1.6%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.8 -.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.42%

• S&P 500 futures +.09%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.10%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Slightly Higher on Lower Long-Term Rates, More Dovish Fed Commentary, Short-Covering, Alt Energy/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.7 +3.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.09 +172.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 67.0 -2.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 179.0 -.1%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.52 -.91%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.6 +7.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 133.0 -16.0
  

• Total Put/Call .99 -3.9%

• NYSE Arms .74 -33.0%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$10.4M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.1 -.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 264.2 +.56%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 273 +22
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.6 +.3%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 184.7 +.31%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 138.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.0 -1.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 163.9 -2.4%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 127.7 +3.4%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 +.2%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.0 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 5.0 basis points -1.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 141.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 778.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.8 -.2%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.36% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 108.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.4 euros/megawatt-hour -2.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.6 -1.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 36.0 -.4 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.5 +.7 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +39.5% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 251.43 +.13:  Growth Rate +12.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.6 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.87% +3.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 312.69 +.16: Growth Rate +30.1% unch., P/E 32.0 -.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.07 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .95 unch.
  
• US Yield Curve -38.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.5% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 47.8% -.6 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.67% unch.: CPI YoY +3.41% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 56.2%(+4.9 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 50.7%(+.5 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -53 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +34 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +239 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my consumer discretionary/tech/financial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Insurance -1.9% 2) Defense -1.5% 3) Construction -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CROX, ETN, GES, DELL, WING, AMRK, KSPI, VRT, CDRE, HII, NVT, CLS, RCL, ASC, AAON, VST, INMD, CAVA, TBBB, NEOG, ALCC and HLIT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ALCC 2) OZK 3) AG 4) VZIO 5) OPK
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TLRY 2) BA 3) NEOG 4) MAXN 5) INMD
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLV 3) VGT 4) XLI 5) IYH

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.8% 2) Alt Energy +1.8% 3) Electric Vehicles +1.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• IZM, NRIX, MP, PHAT, SAVA, AGRO, CSIQ, PAAS, AMKR, BILI, MRNA, STAA, ROOT, ERO, VECO, TECK, VRNT, LW, SDGR, SMTC, RH, FNA, SCCO, DESP, NTES, EGO, GFI and RVTY
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ETRN 2) INMD 3) GGAL 4) ANNX 5) ALCC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) OPFI 2) ACRV 3) MRNA 4) TAOP 5) ALLY
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLC 2) IAI 3) XRT 4) IYM 5) ARKK
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume