Sunday, July 14, 2024

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:   
Zero Hedge: 
CNBC:  
MarketWatch.com:  
Fox News:
Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • RepThomasMassie
  • @JeckovKanani
  • @LauraLoomer
  • WATCH: Footage from President Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania tonight shows Trump supporters spotting the shooter before he opened fire. Trump supporters can be heard screaming “HE’S GOT A GUN! HE’S GOT A GUN”! Before the shooter tried to kill President Trump. How did this happen? (video)
  • @FreePartyAus
  • @MyLordBebo
  • @LetsGoBrando45
  • @Lukewearechange
  • So let me get this straight..... 1 - The shooter at Trump’s rally was spotted acting suspiciously near the event, Authorities announced over radio to keep an eye on him, and this info was passed to Secret Service. - CNN
  • @bambkb 
  • @OkeefeMedia 
  • @AZ_Intel_
  • @robbystarbuck
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @TRHLofficial
  • @dbongino
  • realchrisrufo
  • @DMichaelTripi
  • @kylenabecker
  • @MarioNawful
  • @TheChiefNerd
  • @wideawake_media
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @1776Diva
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • @DC_Draino
  • @amuse
  • @fightwithmemes
OpenVAERS: 
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.0 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 55.75 -.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 108.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.31%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.3 -.05%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 58.2 -.02%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 13.9 -1.2%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.45%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.17%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.22%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Friday, July 12, 2024

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:Wall Street Journal:   

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:

NewsMax: 

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • @LizCrokin
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @EmeraldRobinson
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Rising Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.3 -5.0%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .79 +24.5%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 59.8 +1.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 189.1 -.23%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.0 -1.7%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 7.8 -6.4% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 158.0 +4.0
  • Total Put/Call .79 -3.7%
  • NYSE Arms 1.41 +36.5%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$436.8M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.1 -1.2%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 270.58 -.68%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 270 +7
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.79 -.98%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 150.6 -.9%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 130.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.2 +.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 155.3 -2.3%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 135.8 -1.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.96 +.3%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -17.0 basis points +1.5 basis pointS
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 1.75 basis points -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.0 +.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 138.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 723.0 +3.0 basis pointS
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 62.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.36 +.01%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.34% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 109.9 USD/Metric Tonne +1.7%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.7 euros/megawatt-hour +1.95%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -47.5 -1.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.9 -.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.8 +2.0 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(26 of 500 reporting) +8.8% n/a
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 261.26 n/a:  Growth Rate +14.4% n/a, P/E 21.5 n/a
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.81% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 331.81 n/a: Growth Rate +23.7% n/a, P/E 35.8 n/a
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .98 -8.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .82 -9.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -27.5 basis points (2s/10s) +3.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.0% +30.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 60.3% +1.2 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.39% -22.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.01% -11.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 88.1%(+3.0 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 56.6%(+4.7 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +280 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -55 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +157 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/tech/biotech/financial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +1.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Shipping -.9% 2) Airlines -.1% 3) Banks +.1%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • HUBS, HE, VRNA, ZIM, RXST, WFC, INDV, LBPH and ABR
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) QS 2) ABR 3) WSM 4) NNOX 5) HUN
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ABR 2) CMBM 3) WFC 4) SISI 5) T
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) IBB 3) ITB 4) JETS 5) ITA

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +1.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy +4.2% 2) Homebuilding +3.4% 3) Semis +3.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SMR, PLSE, GRPN, RIVN, IREN, CRBP, ARRY, ASTS, HUT, RUN, STVN, VRDN, MARA, JMIA, KYMR, CVNA, NATL, ENPH, AOSL, RNG, DKS, INMD, CLSK, TEM, FDMT, MBUU, BLDR, BZH, BK, LMND, INTC, BYON, GNRC, DNUT, APPF, EYPT, DNUT, FIVN, RH, BTDR, SQ, CFLT, SAVA, WGO, NTLA, ETSY, POOL, MIRM, SEDG, AEHR, SSNC, SGH, DPZ, KBH, BXP, SW, TREX, IBP, CATX, XENE, FERG, CUBE, TSLA, WCC, PWP, DHI, LEN, FLR, AGNC, THO, KRC, XENE, INST, CORZ, GLPI, LEU, ARR and SKY
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) QS 2) LCID 3) XLI 4) NNOX 5) ITB
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) TIL 2) EVGO 3) INTC 4) UNTY 5) BK
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLI 2) XLF 3) XLV 4) KRE 5) XLB
Charts:

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BLK)/9.98
  • (GS)/8.35
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • Empire Manufacturing for July is estimated at -6.0 versus -6.0 in June.

Upcoming Splits

  • (AVGO) 10-for-1
  • (USLM) 5-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed Chairman Powell speaking and the Fed's Daly speaking could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST