Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Medical Equipment +1.4% 2) Regional Banks +.8% 3) Pharma +.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HE, MSTR, BTDR, ISRG, S, COIN, IREN, WAL, ML, RIOT, HUT, NFE, MARA, NTRA, VIRT, INDB, SUPN, DASH, BX and ERJ
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ISRG 2) ALIT 3) HBAN 4) GFI 5) RF

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SERV 2) ISRG 3) WAL 4) WWW 5) ARM
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) AIRR 2) SOXX 3) XLP 4) IBB 5) RSPT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BOH)/.87
• (TFC)/.66
• (VZ)/1.15
• (SAP)/1.14
  

After the Close: 

• (BRO)/.88
• (CDNS)/1.23
• (CALX)/.06
• (CLF)/-.01
• (CCK)/1.59
• (NUE)/2.49
• (NXPI)/3.20
• (ZION)/1.09
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June is estimated to fall to -.06 versus .18 in May. 
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The (WOOF) general meeting and the (SNAP) annual meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -15.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.5 -2.3
  
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 40.7% of Issues Advancing, 56.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .73 -28.2%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$23.7M
  
• 38 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
• 63.2% (-2.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 57.0 -3.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 55.5 +2.5%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 237.7 -.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,197.9 +.5%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 5.0 (NEUTRAL) unch.
  
• 1-Day Vix 12.6 -18.8%
  
• Vix 16.3 +2.1%
  
• Total Put/Call .77 -15.4%

Friday Watch

 Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.75 +3.0 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 65.5 +2.75 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 56.9 +5.0%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.3 +.04%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.02%.

• S&P 500 futures +.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.26%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Lower on Higher Long-Term Rates, Democrat Presidential Candidate Uncertainty, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Pharma/Transport Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.09 -.34%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.34% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.75 USD/Metric Tonne-.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.7 euros/megawatt-hour +2.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -36.1 +.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.7 -.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.3 -.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(60 of 500 reporting) +7.2% -1.3 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 261.54 -.14:  Growth Rate +14.5% -.1, P/E 21.2 -.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.79% -4.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 332.10 -.51: Growth Rate +23.8% -.2 percentage point, P/E 34.2 -.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .82 -19.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .81 -5.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -27.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.73% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 60.5% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.39% unch.: CPI YoY +3.01% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 93.5%(-2.4 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 54.4%(-6.8 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -21 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -110 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +90 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary/financial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
  

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.75% to -.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 93.75 +1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 62.75 +2.0 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.0 USD/Metric Tonne unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 56.9 +2.3%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.6 -1.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.1%.

• S&P 500 futures +.21%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.33%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.