BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Monday, July 22, 2024

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Posted by Gary .....at 2:03 PM

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(ACI)/.67
(AVY)/2.26
(KO)/.81
(DHR)/1.57
(FCX)/.40
(GE)/.99
(GM)/2.70
(GPC)/2.59
(HCA)/4.93
(HRI)/2.91
(KMB)/1.71
(LMT)/6.46
(MCO)/3.03
(PCAR)/2.14
(PM)/1.57
(PHM)/3.27
(DGX)/2.33
(SHW)/3.49
(SPOT)/1.05
(UPS)/1.99

After the Close:

(GOOG)/1.84
(COF)/3.39
(CB)/5.14
(EQT)/-.19
(MANH)/.96
(MAT)/.17
(RRR)/.44
(STX)/.75
(TSLA)/.61
(TXN)/1.16
(V)/2.42
(NVR)/121.21

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

The Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Index for July.

10:00 am EST

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for July is estimated to rise to -6 versus -10 in June.
Existing Home Sales for June is estimated to fall to 3.99M versus 4.11M in May.

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The 2Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports and the (VFC) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 12:46 PM

NYSE Composite Index:

Volume Running -11.1% Below 100-Day Average
Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.9 +2.4
2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
66.4% of Issues Advancing, 31.1% Declining
TRIN/Arms 1.46 +135.4%
Non-Block Money Flow +$188.0M
54 New 52-Week Highs, 18 New Lows
63.6% (+1.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
Average 14-Day RSI 57.0 unch.

Other:

Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 56.7 +3.1%
Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 237.1 +.2%
Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,299.1 +.93%
CNN Fear & Greed Index 53.0 (NEUTRAL) +4.0
1-Day Vix 10.7 -23.0%
Vix 15.5 -6.3%
Total Put/Call .87 +7.4%

Sunday, July 21, 2024

Monday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 9:58 PM

Around X:

@elonmusk

The Biden administration beefed up Secret Service protection for President Zelenskyy. And denied beefed up Secret Service protection for President Trump!

@LauraLoomer

BREAKING: THE COVER UP OF THE INSIDE JOB TO ASSASSINATE PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP CONTINUES. The Department of Homeland Security under DHS Secretary @SecMayorkas Alejandro Mayorkas has DENIED FOIA REQUESTS that pertain to the attempted assassination of President Trump on July 13, 2024. Remember, Mayorkas controls all @SecretService resources and he has DENIED requests made by Trump’s campaign for more security resources over the last 2 years.
Meet Dan Whitfield. He’s running for US Senate in Arkansas against @TomCottonAR. Dan said the world would be a better place if the bullet would have killed Donald Trump last Saturday. Dan deleted the tweet. And then he deleted his X account.
Every single conservative who is saying @SecretService Director Kim Cheatle should simply “resign” is LOW IQ. We now know she and DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas @AliMayorkas intentionally denied President Trump more security resources when his campaign asked. We also know that they identified a shooter at least 30 minutes before shots were fired, which was 10 minutes BEFORE President Trump took the stage at his rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.

@PhilHollowayEsq

I was promised that voting machines were not connected to the internet.

@GenFlynn

I’m reposting this earlier post of mine after considering just the past 24 hours of breaking news. This is my message to the @GOP. You need to understand that the globalist left are going to do everything they can do to undermine, usurp, steal (I said it) this November’s presidential election.

@MdBreathe

Some of my followers told me last night I need to “move on.” I am still seeing vaccine injuries. I am still having trouble getting my patients IVM. I am still fighting for my license. All babies are expected to get the shots at their 6 month check-up. How can we move on when it’s still going on? I will not stop until the shots are pulled off the market and people are held accountable.

@HarrisonHSmith

So let me see if I have this Crowdstrike story straight…. When Hillary Clinton was Sec. of State, she was illegally funneling sophisticated weapons through Libya to terrorists in the MidEast in an effort to take out Assad in Syria for Israel. When the weapons transfer went sideways and the US Ambassador was killed in Benghazi, it was discovered she was using an illegal private server for secret communications. She destroyed the server, but not before its contents were leaked by Wikileaks, including communications about bizarre occult rituals and inexplicable code words involving children and pizza...

@JamesMelville

“These so-called green or ethical solutions aren’t solutions at all. Just very good marketing from the $1.5 trillion a year climate change industry.” Inconvenient truth. Net zero is a huge con. A gigantic transfer of wealth to corporations under the auspices of fake virtue. (video)

@ChuckCallesto

Kamala Harris would hate if you shared this video of her questioning election integrity.. (video)

@Ultrafrog17

Omg. Crowdstrike CEO starts panicking and choking on his words when the media asks him why a single content update could shut down the entire system. Look at how nervous this man is. What is he hiding? (video)

@dom_lucre

BREAKING: Donald Trump stuns American with this massive crowd at his Michigan rally. Governor Gretchen Whitmer released a video earlier today alluding to the people of Michigan not accepting Donald Trump. It appears she was wrong. (video)

@kylenabecker

RFK Jr: Democrats 'Fixing' 2024 Nomination is Like Something You See Out of Putin's Russia. "A few weeks ago, President Biden was ridiculing Vladimir Putin, who won 88% of the vote in Russia, and he said that that was a 'fixed election'...". Independent presidential candidate @RobertKennedyJr in an interview with
@JesseBWatters explains the ways the Democrats "fixed" the 2024 primaries and the party nomination:
BREAKING. The Washington Post proves that DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas *LIED* about not denying Secret Service protection to former President Donald Trump prior to last Saturday's assassination attempt. The Secret Service and DHS Secretary Mayorkas both lied to the public about the denial of Trump team security requests.

@MarioNawful

THOMAS CROOKS’ FORMER SCHOOL: HE WAS NOT BULLIED. Bethel Park School District: "There is a painful misconception that Thomas Crooks was relentlessly bullied in school, which may have led to the assassination attempt on former President Trump. According to our records, Mr. Crooks excelled academically, regularly attended school, and had no disciplinary incidents, including those related to bullying or threats. Thomas Crooks was never a member of the school's rifle team and we have no record of him trying out. The coach does not recall meeting him.
BREAKING: RNC POSTS BEST FUNDRAISING MONTH IN YEARS, RAISING $66M IN JUNE. The Republican National Committee reported its highest fundraising month since late 2020, raising over $66 million in June according to FEC filings.

@EndWokeness

How the heII did this woman get the job? (video)

@LaraLogan

We have been lied to about technology & the price we pay for “efficiency” - it is time to curb the power of these global monopolies that rely on dominating our systems & taking over our lives to succeed. If you cannot see the danger, I cannot figure out what is wrong with you.

@KarluskaP

Clip of Trump interview with Jesse Watters - Trump says he was never warned of the threat. (video)

@WallStreetSilv

Klaus Schwab Foreshadowing a Comprehensive Cyberattack. (video)

@stillgray

Jesse Watters nailed it here. Dropping out just because you know you can’t win just so some elites can pick your replacement is not how democratic elections are supposed to be. (video)

@WallStreetApes

Keep Hammering These Facts Until The Whole Country Gets It. “If there was ever any doubt in your mind whether the assassination attempt against Trump was planned or not, whether your government knew about it. 2 things: Number 1, the largest bets ever made against the stock were made against Truth Social the day before. Number 2, when's the last time you've seen CNN go live and show you a Trump rally? It's been about 5 years. Okay, They wanted to get it on video and they wanted to rub it in your face. Well, they missed.” (video)

@KobeissiLetter

The US debt crisis is terrible: Currently, every new dollar of US public debt generates just $0.58 of GDP, near the lowest on record. By comparison, in the 1960s this metric was as high as $9.80, and in 2000 it was $4.00, or 7 times above current levels. Over the last 4 years, US national debt has skyrocketed by $11.6 trillion while US added $6.6 trillion in GDP. In other words, the US economy's productivity has declined near the worst levels in modern history. (graph)

@amuse

This story keeps getting stranger & stranger. Evidently police texted crime scene photos of Crooks' body to an unknown man in a grey suit. @MariaBartiromo is reporting that Sen @RonJohnsonWI uncovered his identity and included it in his preliminary report.

OpenVAERS:

VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,012,894 Reports(+1,222 from prior report) Through June 28th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

Asian indices are to +% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.5 +.75 basis point.
China Sovereign CDS 66.25 +.75 basis point.
China Iron Ore Spot 103.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.93%.
Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.07 -.01%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 56.3 +2.3%.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.9 -.42%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.35%.
S&P 500 futures +.17%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.30%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, July 20, 2024

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 5:30 PM

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:

Wall Street Journal:

The Software Patch That Shook the World.
Israel Strikes Houthi-Controlled Port City in Yemen.
California’s Minimum Wage Backfire. The $20 fast-food mandate is harming workers and business.
The Gamer CEO Trying to Level Up Dating Apps.
A Case for Backing Up Your Precious Photos and Files at Home.
‘Reservation Bots’ Are Stealing Spots at Your Favorite Restaurant. How to Beat Them

Barron's:

Had bullish commentary on (RH), (WSM), (W) and (EADSY).

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:

NewsMax:

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com:

Epoch Times:

Around X:

@BGatesIsaPsycho

Another recent rain water sample returned these results as a consequence of the daily atmospheric spraying happening. These metals are entering our ecosystems & ultimately you.

@drawandstrike

Out of all the rallies Trump held in the last year, CNN decided to carry exactly one of them live: Saturday, July 13, 2024 in Butler, PA. Interestingly enough, as the shooter - whoever that was - began firing, a NYT's photographer was in prime position to catch Trump's head exploding with a camera set to the unusual setting of 1/8000 & 30 FPS. Which you would only use if you expected to be shooting something happening in a millisecond. Turns out you can actually SEE a bullet in flight at those settings. Isn't that amazing?

@kylenabecker

BREAKING. Biden’s Secret Service has denied a FOIA request by @America1stLegal following the assassination attempt on Donald Trump. The Secret Service claims there is no urgency and denies the American public has a right to know. The Trump assassination cover-up continues. (pic)
"86 45." @TudorDixon pointed out an ominous message in Michigan Governor Whitmer's post. "86" is a euphemism for "k*ll" and "45" is Trump's presidential number. Donald Trump is in Grand Rapids, Michigan today for the first Trump/Vance campaign rally. It is also Trump's first rally since he was shot last Saturday in Pennsylvania. The Secret Service is implementing tighter security protocols at Van Andel Arena that *should* prevent another Trump assassination attempt. (video)
"The FBI set everything up. They drove people; they paid for everything. They wrote the script." JUST IN: Whitmer Kidnapping Plot whistleblower who was *ACQUITTED* by a jury speaks out about FBI scheme to frame Trump supporters.
“Today when I went to that site, the FBI had more security on that site now than they did the night Trump was shot at.” “They tried to kick me off of the site. They said 'Get Outta here !’” @HawleyMO on the FBI covering up the Trump assassination plot. (video)

@amuse

Is this normal? Does law enforcement clean crime scenes? Why would the FBI clean a roof? (pic)
You may have forgotten that CrowdStrike was center stage in the Democrat email leak scandal & the impeachment of Trump. The DNC refused to let the FBI examine servers, giving them to CrowdStrike. Trump asked Zelensky to look into the company on his famous call.

@WendyP4545

An assasination attempt was made on President Trump. One man died, 2 were in Critical Condition and: No FBI Press Breifing. No DOJ Press Briefing. The House of Representatives doesn't reconvene back in Session. The US Senate doesn't reconvine back in Session. Oversight sends out Invitations to appear not subpoena's. FBI Director refuses the invitation to appear...

@ChuckCallesto

JUST IN: Video of Kamala Harris re- emerges questioning the integrity of election machines while TODAY claiming TRUMP attempted to overturn a free and fair election. THEY HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO PLATFORM TO RUN ON.. Share this everywhere. (video)

@WallStreetApes

EXTREMELY IMPORTANT. EXPOSED: Marc Elias, the same guy who pushed Steele Dossier, Trump Russian collusion hoax for Hillary Clinton IS THE ONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PROJECT 2025 PROPAGANDA.
Matt Tardio, Retired Green Beret, Prior Law Enforcement Officer Who’s An Explosives Expert Breaks Down The Significance Of The Donald Trump Assassins Transmitter Found. There is NO WAY this wasn’t an inside job. (video)
Retired FBI Agent Says The FBI 100% CAN NOT Be Trusted To Honestly Investigate The Assassination Attempt On Donald Trump. “I'm a retired FBI agent — I do not have faith and confidence that the upper level and executive management of the FBI will report it in a faithful, credible, honest and timely manner. Hate to say that but that's just, I think that's the truth.” (video)

@VigilantNews

Bill Maher Confronts Pete Buttigieg on Massive Security Failure in Trump Shooting. “Should Joe Biden have fired the Secret Service head? ... I’ve seen people fired for less, and it just looks bad.” “It looks like, ‘Well, the other guy from the other party got shot. We’ll look into it if we have time.’”
Ron Johnson Outraged Over ‘Infuriating’ Trump Assassination Attempt Details. The Trump assassination attempt reeks of foul play, and now Senator Ron Johnson is getting angry.

@BehizyTweets

BREAKING: Reports are coming from Maricopa County, Arizona that Dominion voting machines are malfunctioning county-wide as a result of the CrowdStrike outage. Officials have long claimed that the machines are NEVER connected to the internet... you can laugh at those claims now.

@patel_patriot

Wonder if this Crowdstrike outage was just a test run. What happens if there is an outage on November 5th?

@LauraLoomer

Did you know that the President of CrowdStrike Services and the Chief Security Officer served as the Executive Assistant Director of the FBI under the Obama-Biden administration? Weird how the CrowdStrike @CrowdStrike global outage happened during President Trump’s nomination speech at the RNC Convention. Meet Shawn Henry...
EXCLUSIVE: NEW REPORT. ALARMING NEW DETAILS AROUND THE BUILDING USED BY THE SHOOTER TO ALMOST ASSASSINATE PRESIDENT TRUMP! (pic)

@EndWokeness

Kamala Harris is 1,000x worse than Biden. Her ideology is literally racial Marxism. If you think I'm exaggerating, listen: (video)
Democracy is when these 2 matter more than the 14.4 million Dems who voted to keep Joe Biden the nominee: (pic)

@Stillgray

JUST IN: BIDEN QUIETLY FUMING AT FORMER ALLIES IN DELAWARE RETREAT, BLAMES OBAMA AND PELOSI. “Sick with Covid and abandoned by allies, President Biden has been fuming at his Delaware beach house, increasingly resentful about what he sees as an orchestrated campaign to drive him out of the race and bitter toward some of those he once considered close, including his onetime running mate Barack Obama. Mr. Biden has been around politics long enough to assume that the leaks appearing in the media in recent days are being coordinated to raise the pressure on him to step aside, according to people close to him. He considers Representative Nancy Pelosi, the former House speaker, the main instigator, but is irritated at Mr. Obama as well, seeing him as a puppet master behind the scenes.”

@RWMaloneMD

This post gets to the bottom of the Crowdstrike matter. It was a C++ memory pointer coding error. I was once trained on C++. Classic error. This should not have passed qc. It raises questions of intentionality. And then we go right down the rabbit hole of the tight relationship between Crowdstrike and the DNC. And the globalists want to force all of onto CBDC? Read the thread. (pic)

@foundring1

Doug Mills, who took the "one in a million" bullet picture, is the same guy who just happened to be on hand to catch the iconic moment Bush learned about 9/11. Huh. (pic)

@LaNativePatriot

Questions about the assassination attempt I would like answered sooner than later. (list)

@newstart_2024

A Texas rancher has come forward to blow the whistle and expose efforts by the federal government to spike the U.S. food supply with mRNA vaccines. Rancher Trevor Cowley revealed during an interview that the feds have been experimenting on livestock by injecting animals destined for the food supply with mRNA shots. Cowley told the “Real Business Owners” podcast that Democrat President Joe Biden’s Department of Agriculture (USDA) has been running secret trials on animals. However, a huge percentage of the livestock that received the injections has died. (video)

@IGSquawk

Weekend Markets Indices Update: #DAX 18171.8 +0.01% #DOW 40286.8 +0.01% #NASDAQ 19522.3 -0.00% #FTSE 8166.5 -0.03% #HANGSENG 17391.9 -0.07% .

OpenVAERS:

VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,012,894 Reports(+1,222 from prior report) Through June 28th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Friday, July 19, 2024

Stocks Finish Lower on Crowdstrike Global IT Outages, Democrat Presidential Candidate Chaos, Higher Long-Term Rates, Tech/Commodity Sector Weakness

Posted by Gary .....at 9:47 PM

Economic Gauges:

Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 -.06%
3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.33% -1.0 basis point

China Iron Ore Spot 104.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.17%
Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.2 euros/megawatt-hour -1.5%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index -35.0 +.6 point

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -26.0 +.3 point

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.7 +1.3 points
S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(70 of 500 reporting) +8.9% +1.7 percentage points
S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 261.60 +.06: Growth Rate +14.6% +.1, P/E 21.1 -.1
S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.79% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +43.8%
NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 332.18 +.08: Growth Rate +23.8% unch., P/E 34.2 unch.
Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .91 +9.0 basis points
Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .79 -2.0 basis points
US Yield Curve -27.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.73% unch.
US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 59.6% -.9 percentage point

Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.39% unch.: CPI YoY +3.01% unch.
10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +4.0 basis points
Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 93.5%(-.5 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 57.4%(-.9 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -21 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -110 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating +90 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
Disclosed Trades: None
Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:11 PM

Style Underperformer:

Mid-Cap Value -.6%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Semis -2.7% 2) Alt Energy -2.4% 3) Insurance -2.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

LPLA, AXP, PPG, FDMT, FP, LBRT, HAL, OCFC, APTV, CENX, EEFT, MEG, TRV, INST, SMR, EH, ALV, CMA, CRWD, AIR, SIGI and LPA

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) CRWD 2) OIH 3) NRG 4) SBSW 5) LSXMK

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) CRWD 2) SPWR 3) TRV 4) PLUG 5) ALV

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

1) XLK 2) XLF 3) XLI 4) OIH 5) XLC

Charts:

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