Stocks Finish Sharply Lower on US Economic Data, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Yen Strength, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.8 +14.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.61 +16.8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 47.7 -4.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 174.2 -1.0%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 24.6 +18.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 126.0 -9.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.15 +36.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.21 -6.9%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$266.7M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.3 +3.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 329.04 +4.2%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 262 +13
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.2 +2.4%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 166.8 +.34%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 145.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.7 +.34%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 168.2 +1.2%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 134.5 -.43%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.76 -.28%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -21.25 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -27.25 basis points -1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 129.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 705.0 +6.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 67.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.8 -.33%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.05% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 90.25 USD/Metric Tonne -1.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.48 euros/megawatt-hour +.78%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -30.1 -.6 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -43.6 +7.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.8 -.8
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +11.6% +.2 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.18 +.11:  Growth Rate +13.9% unch., P/E 20.3 -.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.65% -4.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +36.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 347.88 +.97: Growth Rate +22.2% -.5 percentage point, P/E 30.1 -1.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .52 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .61 -9.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 5.5 basis point (2s/10s) +7.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.09% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 73.1% +.8 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.03 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th FOMC meeting: 52.4%(+3.5 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th meeting: 40.6%(+6.9 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1,081 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -75 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -2.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -4.8% 2) Social Media -3.3% 3) Alt Energy -3.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• VRNS, OXY, PUK, SBLK, ALLY, GATO, BCS, AMR, IEP, ALRM, ASAN, ASML, VSTS, THC, BYRN, PATH, TW, ABM, INDV, VTLE, KBR, MBLY, ERJ, BPMC, TASK, ELF, LEGN, SWBI, CRDO, AVGO, CLS and BRZE
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AG 2) AVTR 3) AR 4) BAX 5) CTRA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PL 2) GCO 3) BRZE 4) MBLY 5) AVGO
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) IYW 3) XLK 4) SMH 5) XLE

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.9%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding +1.4% 2) Restaurants +.7% 3) Telecom +.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RYDE, NX, IOT, TVTX, GWRE, TARS, NARI, BOWL, SMAR, ZUMZ, VRDN, X, GIII, TCBI, SRCL and DOCU
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VNET 2) SATS 3) DOCU 4) DISH 5) PPL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GWRE 2) IOT 3) TVTX 4) AGX 5) NX
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLV 2) XLY 3) IAI 4) XLU 5) ITB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• (ORCL)/1.33
• (RBRK)/-.49
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for July.
  

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit For July is estimated to rise to $12.0B versus $8.934B in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (CTAS) 4-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow 3Q update, NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations Index for Aug., CB Employment Trends Index for Aug., (DECK) annual meeting, Goldman Communicopia/Tech Conference, Baird Healthcare Conference, Piper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference, Precious Metals Summit and the Roth Solar/Storage Symposium could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +4.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.6 +.5
  
• 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
• 24.3% of Issues Advancing, 73.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.13 -13.9%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$194.5M
  
• 115 New 52-Week Highs, 68 New Lows
• 53.3% (-4.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 59.0 -3.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 47.1 -5.6%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 219.2 -1.1%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,946.3 -1.3%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 39.0 (FEAR) -8.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 18.3 -15.9%
  
• Vix 23.6 +18.8%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.15 +36.9%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.5 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 59.5 unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 92.2 USD/Metric Tonne +1.3%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 51.0 +2.0%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.0 +1.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.21%.

• S&P 500 futures -.15%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.43%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.