Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.5 +.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 60.0 -1.0 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 92.8 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.7 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 48.2 -1.7%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.6 -.65%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.17%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Yen Weakness, Technical Buying, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.8 -11.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.20 -25.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 49.0 +5.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 174.1 +.04%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.7 -1.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 22.4 -9.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 111.0 -10.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.10 -3.5%

• NYSE Arms .84 -32.3%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$204.7M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.9 -3.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 332.60 +.71%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 259 -3
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.3 -1.4%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 166.9 +.05%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 145.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.6 +2.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 167.0 -.71%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 133.95 -.43%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.74 -.12%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -21.25 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -30.0 basis points -2.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.25 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 130.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 704.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 66.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.7 -.30%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.02% -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 92.65 USD/Metric Tonne +.96%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 37.3 euros/megawatt-hour +2.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -26.8 +3.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -41.9 +1.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.8 +1.0
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +11.6% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.42 +.23:  Growth Rate +14.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.5 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.68% +3.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +36.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 348.58 +.70: Growth Rate +22.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 30.2 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .44 -8.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .50 -11.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 2.25 basis point (2s/10s) -2.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.47% +38.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 73.7% +.6 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.04 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th FOMC meeting: 53.2%(-.3 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th meeting: 40.2%(+3.9 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -85 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -28 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +41 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Shipping -1.1% 2) Electric Vehicles -.6% 3) Telecom -.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BSY, IMVT, HUM, DOCU, CLCO, DIN, MEOH, ELF, CLMT, VREX, ZUMZ and LIF
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HLF 2) AR 3) SBSW 4) FWRD 5) NYCB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CVS 2) MRK 3) MEI 4) VICR 5) BIG
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLY 3) KRE 4) SMH 5) AMLP

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.5%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +2.3% 2) Banks +2.1% 3) Industrials +1.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SMMT, BCYC, XNCR, PGHL, TVTX, ADMA, PLTR, RDFN, CRGX, BNTX, GCT, PI, GDOT, ZWS, INSP, AAOI, SHC, QXO, YOU, QNST, U, TGTX, DOCN, ITOS, ACVA, UAL, FIVE, SMCI, MLNK, ALK, AGX, CPRI, PSN, DJT, COIN, XPRO, CNH, DAL, XLS, IOT, ALGM, HLNE, BYRN, TGNA, GWRE, ULTA, AAL, COCO, X, LEGN, BA, DELL, NAMS, CRI, WAL, IMTX, CCRN, PCVX, ZD, PNC, GEO, ROIV, HELE, DB and GD
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SMMT 2) MULN 3) IMVT 4) BNTX 5) TERN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SMMT 2) INBS 3) PLTR 4) XNCR 5) TERN
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) IGV 3) XLV 4) XLK 5) XLI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ASO)/2.01

After the Close: 

• (PLAY)/.84
• (GME)/-.09
• (WOOF)/-.02
  

Economic Releases

6:00 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Aug. is estimated at 93.7 versus 93.7 in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (CTAS) 4-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barr speaking, 3Y T-Note auction, OPEC monthly report, API weekly crude oil stock report, EIA short-term energy outlook report, weekly US retail sales reports, (NKE) annual meeting, (IDCC) investor day, (CPB) investor day, BofA Real Estate Conference, Barclays Financial Services Conference, Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference, Goldman Communicopia/Tech Conference and the Baird Healthcare Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +1.5% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.4 -1.2
  
• 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
• 73.8% of Issues Advancing, 23.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .79 -39.5%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$301.2M
  
• 127 New 52-Week Highs, 67 New Lows
• 54.6% (+4.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.0 -5.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 49.8 +7.4%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 220.4 +.9%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,943.3 -.06%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 43.0 (FEAR) +4.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 13.3 -35.1%
  
• Vix 19.4 -13.5%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.09 -4.4%