Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.0 +1.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 61.75 +1.75 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 90.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.14%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.7 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 47.9 -.1%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.4 +.08%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.06%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Revering Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/REIT Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.4 -.15%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.22 +2.3%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 48.0 -2.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 173.1 -.7%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.7 +.23%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 22.5 +2.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 110.0 -4.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.0 -9.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.75 +92.3%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$14.2M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.8 +2.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 354.40 +6.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 260 +1
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.98 +1.2%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 168.3 +.85%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 145.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.4 +1.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 170.68 +2.2%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 134.1 +.12%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.65 -.52%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -21.75 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -36.25 basis points -6.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 126.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 707.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 67.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.66 -.16%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.96% -6.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 90.07 USD/Metric Tonne +.03%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.3 euros/megawatt-hour -5.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -26.8 unch.
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -41.4 +.5 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.8 +1.0
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +11.6% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.49 +.07:  Growth Rate +14.0% unch., P/E 20.4 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.67% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +36.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 348.57 -.01: Growth Rate +22.4% unch., P/E 30.3 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .59 +15.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .71 +21.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 3.25 basis point (2s/10s) +1.0 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.47% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 72.4% -1.3 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.02 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th FOMC meeting: 53.5%(+.8 percentage point) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th meeting: 42.1%(+3.7 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -49 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -58 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +88 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/biotech/utility sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -2.9% 2) Energy -2.4% 3) Steel -1.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ELF, RBRK, AN, DFS, X, IEP, COF, RXO, SYF, VNOM, FANG, LAD, JPM, NYCB, APA, STEP, JACK, BRZE, HPE, ANRO, SKWD, SPHR, BFH, IONS and ALLY
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ALLY 2) NYCB 3) XLI 4) NTR 5) COF
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ALLY 2) UAA 3) IONS 4) WBTN 5) GS
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XBI 3) CIBR 4) IBB 5) VDE

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.7%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Software +1.8% 2) Networking +1.1% 3) REITs +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• VRDN, CDMO, TERN, KRNT, ORCL, CVGW, BOOT, SMMT, INMD, VREX, ASO, KGS, QXO, DJT, TTMI and DBRG
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) XLI 2) ORCL 3) NOV 4) ALLY 5) VSTS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AVO 2) COMO 3) INMD 4) BOOT 5) JCI
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLP 3) XLV 4) GDX 5) KRE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (OXM)/3.00

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in July.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in July.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for Aug.
  

10:00 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +710,500 barrels versus a -6,873,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +75,000 barrels versus an +848,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +89,830 barrels versus a -371,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.82% versus unch. prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (CTAS) 4-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Presidential debate, 10Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Cleveland CPI MoM for Aug., Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for Sept., Barclays Financial Services Conference, B Riley Consumer/TMT Conference, Baird Healthcare Conference, Piper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference, Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference, (NTAP) annual meeting, (MOD) investor day and the Goldman Sachs Communacopia Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +4.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.9 -.5
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 30.0% of Issues Advancing, 67.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.75 +91.2%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$53.9M
  
• 163 New 52-Week Highs, 108 New Lows
• 52.0% (-2.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 59.0 +5.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 47.2 -3.9%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 217.1 -1.06%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,128.9 +.69%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 37.0 (FEAR) -6.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 16.2 +17.1%
  
• Vix 20.4 +4.9%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.02 -8.1%