Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +7.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.4 -2.1
  
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 79.2% of Issues Advancing, 19.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.06 -.93%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$274.0M
  
• 357 New 52-Week Highs, 6 New Lows
• 61.1% (+4.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 65.0 unch.
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 53.3 +5.6%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 229.1 +2.3%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,800.4 +1.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 67.0 (GREED) +10.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 13.0 -29.4%
  
• Vix 16.6 -9.2%
  
• Total Put/Call .94 -1.1%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• Trending Well. (electoral map)
  

• @TuckerCarlson

• This is openly totalitarian. If we don’t resist this, we’re done: “Just because you legally possess a gun in the sanctity of your locked home doesn't mean that we're not going to walk into that home and check to see if you're being responsible.” (video)

• @bennyjohnson
  

• President Trump reacts to Teamsters not endorsing either candidate for the 2024 Presidential Election: "It's a great honor. They're not going to endorse the Democrats. That's a big thing!" (video)
  

• @DC_Draino
  

• I’m confused. For the first time in 30+ years the Teamsters Union will not be endorsing a Presidential candidate. They said they didn’t have “majority support” among their members for 1 or the other. I’m sorry but doesn’t 58% count as a majority? The members want Trump. The corrupt bosses want Kamala. (pic)

• @nicksortor

• WATCH: A Springfield City Council Member was caught on a hit mic saying “literally I really don't give a sht about the business of the city”. And a resident CALLED HER OUT! The entire council needs to be FIRED! (video)
• #BREAKING: Iranian hackers sent Joe Biden’s campaign information that was stolen from Donald Trump’s campaign, according to the FBI. IRANIAN COLLUSION! IMPEACH BIDEN! (That’s how this works, right?)
• The sea of patriots here to see Trump on Long Island is INSANE. Local media is reporting over 50,000 PEOPLE (and climbing!) in the overflow area already, and Trump doesn't speak for several more hours. This TERRIFIES Kamala. New York is turning out for Trump! (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• Import The 3rd World, Become The 3rd World. “Horses missing after a barn break in — Animals found butchered about a mile away.” Butchered and eaten for food. “They’re our children, and they were abducted and killed for meat” “This is the same thing as going into somebody’s yard, taking their dog and cooking it — Our children are heartbroken, my wife’s heartbroken”. (video) 
• Former Rep Tulsi Gabbard exposing Congress Reps quickly become multimillionaires by making decisions that influence our markets. Former Rep George Santos exposing Congress Reps get classified information & are actually told THE EXACT DAY to do certain trades in the stock market. Tulsi Gabbard “The reality is you're in a position where you're making decisions either in committee or on the house floor that influence our markets, that influence the outcomes of certain industries, either causing some to tank or others to skyrocket.” Lobbyists are also paying for Congress Reps tuition at fancy Ivy League schools.
• This Video Is A Collection Of Clips Of Springfield Ohio Residents Trying To Get Their Stories About What’s Happening To Them Out To Fellow Americans. Illegal Migrants are “Paying cash for houses”. “It's called displacement. They're displacing our community. What they're doing is drop, they dropped all these people in our community, which crank the prices of everything up. Everything, the houses, the groceries, everything. Everything is through the roof. The prices of used cars on marketplace, they're buying everything with cash. They're paying cash for houses. I've never been able to pay cash for a house in my life.” (video)

• @scrippsnews

• A majority of Americans support the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants, according to a new Scripps News/Ipsos survey.

• @BehizyTweets
  

• BREAKING: JD Vance reveals that journalists who cover Kamala Harris's campaign are telling him that she is PANICKING about her internal polling numbers behind closed doors. While pollsters publish fake polls to influence public perception, Kamala is scared of the real numbers. This is just more proof that everything they do is fake. We all need to DISTRUST anything the pollsters say. Our job is to vote and make sure everyone around us is registered to do the same. (video)
  

• @MarioNawfal
  

• IRAN VOWS RESPONSE TO ATTACK ON ENVOY IN LEBANON. Iran will follow up on the pager explosion attacks against its envoy in Lebanon, reserving its rights under international law to take "necessary measures," according to a letter from Iran's UN envoy. The letter emphasizes Iran’s commitment to responding to the incident. (pic)
  

• @MarioNawful

• HEZBOLLAH RADIO EXPLOSIONS LARGER THAN PAGER BLASTS. Today’s Hezbollah radio explosions caused far more damage than yesterday’s pager blasts. Casualties are now in the hundreds, however, expected to rise, but compared to thousands from the previous day it appears that Hezbollah operatives may have stopped using some of the impacted devices.
• DIDDY'S LIFE 'IN DANGER' AT NYC JAIL, FORMER WARDEN WARNS. Sean "Diddy" Combs is in serious danger at Brooklyn's Metropolitan Detention Center (MDC), where violent inmates may target him, according to former warden Cameron Lindsay. Diddy, 54, is being held in the Special Housing Unit awaiting trial for sex trafficking, after being denied bail.
  

• @amuse
  

• TX ELECTION INTEGRITY: Something is rotten in Texas. Around March of this year a number of independent journalists began reporting that Texas was registering a record number of voters without ID using the Social Security Administration's HAVV No-ID Voter Database. Based on the data the SSA was reporting it appeared as if Texas was registering around a million voters per month without ID. Very quickly
  @GovAbbott's Secretary of State @TXsecofstate issued a statement that Texas voter rolls had only increased 57,711 in 2024.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.75 -.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 58.0 -.5 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 91.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.94 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 52.0 +2.8%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.8 +.32%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.70%.

• S&P 500 futures +.49%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.75%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reverse Lower into Close on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Higher Long-Term Rates, Escalating Middle-East War Concerns, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.0 +2.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .99 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 49.5 -2.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 172.8 +.25%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.61 +.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.5 +4.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 120.0 -13.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .84 -8.7%

• NYSE Arms .87 -3.3%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$244.5M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.3 -1.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 336.3 +.43%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 276 -11
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.1 -.1%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 163.0 -.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 136.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.7 -.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 162.1 -1.3%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 133.6 +2.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.76 +.03%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -20.75 basis points unch.
  

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -45.5 basis points -4.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.0 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 122.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 707.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 65.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 +.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.75% -10.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 91.05 USD/Metric Tonne +.36%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.24 euros/megawatt-hour +.85%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.3 +1.8 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -28.2 +5.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.0 -.4 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 500 reporting) +13.3% -2.4 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.83 +.14:  Growth Rate +14.0% -.1 percentage point, P/E 21.1 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.66% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 350.26 +.17: Growth Rate +23.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 31.7 -.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .59 +5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .67 -3.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 8.75 basis point (2s/10s) +4.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.93% -6.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 69.5% -.9 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.77% unch.: CPI YoY +2.27% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.12 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 24th FOMC meeting: 49.0%(+40.9 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 44.7%(+40.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +210 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -18 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +14 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower:  On losses in my consumer discretionary/tech/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Regional Banks +1.5% 2) Construction +1.2% 3) Road & Rail +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PGHL, TRML, BLCO, CMPO, QTRX, EWTX, TERN, CORT, BYRN, COHR, NRA, STRL, MLTX, ACLX, CORZ, MLNK, DUOL, CAR, CART, AMBC, W, ADMA, CVNA, KTOS, PI, HAYW, ICLR, PHAT, CORZ, ADMA, HVT, DQ, ZG, TEAM, CVNA, VSCO, DQ, VFC, BVN, BCE, ALAB, VNO and MBC
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EWTX 2) OMEX 3) XLB 4) BHC 5) LUNR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LUNR 2) VVOS 3) APLT 4) ONON 5) ARKO
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLI 2) SOXX 3) XLY 4) XRT 5) XLE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CBRL)/1.10
• (DRI)/1.83
• (FDS)/3.62
  

After the Close: 

• (FDX)/4.75
• (LEN)/3.64

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Current Account Deficit for 2Q is estimated to widen to $260.0B versus $237.6B in 1Q.
• Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for Sept. is estimated to rise to 0.0 versus -7.0 in Aug.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated at 230K versus 230K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated at 1850K versus 1850K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for Aug. is estimated to fall -.3% versus a -.6% decline in July.
• Existing Home Sales for Aug. is estimated to fall to 3.9M versus 3.95M.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 10Y TIPS auction, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Wells Fargo Consumer Conference, JP Morgan US Clean Tech Stars Conference, (GLW) business update, (UNP) investor day, (QCOM) investor day and the DA Davidson Diversified Industrials/Services Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -26.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.5 +1.3
  
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 45.4% of Issues Advancing, 52.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .86 -16.5%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$73.9M
  
• 169 New 52-Week Highs, 4 New Lows
• 59.0% (-.54%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 65.0 unch.
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 58.0 +2.1%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 223.7 +.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,518.6 +.08%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 57.0 (GREED) +1.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 23.5 +10.4%
  
• Vix 18.5 +4.8%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.03 +30.4%