Tuesday, November 12, 2024

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +20.4% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.9 +1.1
  • 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
  • 19.6% of Issues Advancing, 79.2% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .95 +20.3%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$301.8M
  • 158 New 52-Week Highs, 54 New Lows
  • 62.5% (-2.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 59.0 -8.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.7 +1.0%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 248.3 +1.1%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,223.9 -.89%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 68.0 (GREED) -1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 9.51 +1.3%
  • Vix 14.9 -.2%
  • Total Put/Call .78 +5.4%

Monday, November 11, 2024

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @realDonaldTrump
  • @elonmusk
  • @LeadingReport
  • mschlapp
  • @TTuberville
  • CollinRugg
  • @patriot_hammer
  • @realannapaulina
  • @bennyjohnson
  • MrLTavern
  • @jsolomonReports
  • charliekirk11
  • @pepesgrandma
  • @OnClose
  • @Jessica_4_Trump
  • @amuse
  • @MTGrepp
  • seanmdav
  • @TheLeoTerrell
  • @TexasRepublic71
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @TomeFitton
  • @drawandstrike
  • @OldRowSwig
  • @_BlakeHabyan
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @ChuckCallesto
  • @SaveUSAKitty
  • @kylenabecker
  • @EricRWeinstein
  • @GenFlynn
  • @emperorgrok
  • @MarioNawful
  • @ColonelRETJohn2
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.0 +1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 62.25 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.9 -.07%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 68.5 +.6%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.8 +.18%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.47%
  • S&P 500 futures -.11%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on US Election Integrity Concerns, Anti-Trump Senate Majority Leader Thune/Cornyn Possibilities, Profit-Taking, Metals & Mining/Pharma Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.9 -.24%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.52% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 43.7 euros/megawatt-hour +3.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.1 -.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 18.7 +2.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.9 +1.8 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(453 of 500 reporting) +7.1% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.04 +.02:  Growth Rate +15.1% -1.5 percentage points, P/E 22.4 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.52% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 376.54 unch.: Growth Rate +34.0% -3.3 percentage points, P/E 32.9 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.10 +25.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.51 -5.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 4.5 basis point (2s/10s) -7.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.45% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.5% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 55.5%(+2.1 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 39.6%(-1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +222 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -69 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +65 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/financial/consumer discretionary/industrial/utility sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +1.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Airlines +3.6% 2) Regional Banks +3.5% 3) Digital Health +2.9%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • WRD, MARA, OUST, BTDR, HUT, CLSK, MSTR, COIN, RIOT, LMND, RDNT, HIMS, AFRM, IREN, MGNI, PGY, RDW, ZK, OEC, BEAM, SQ, BMY, RKLB, ELF, EVH, HOOD, GME, TREE, DAVE, BILL, FLYW, GDYN, PRAX, AR, SOFI, TSLA, CRSP, INOD, DKNG, DAVA, WIX, ARIS, AMSC, FIVN, ECG, CXW, CRM, CGEM, FOUR, BEW, SMWB, RSI, IBKR, DOCS, OS, DVAX, KTOS, LYFT, PINS, BBWI, PSFE, IMXI, PLTR, SGRY, GEO, ZETA, RAIL, SDGR, PX, VLY, LITE, SHOP and DJT
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) BNO 2) CAN 3) GRAB 4) PBI 5) FVRR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) COIN 2) RDNT 3) HOOD 4) BMY 5) RIOT
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) XBI 3) XLP 4) GRNY 5) IGV
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AZN)/1.02
  • (CAMT)/.69
  • (HTZ)/-.46
  • (HD)/3.65
  • (IAC)/-.28
  • (IGT)/.35
  • (MOS)/.52
  • (ONON)/.19
  • (RGEN)/.34
  • (SE)/.46
  • (THS)/.75
  • (TSN)/.72
After the Close: 
  • (DOX)/1.70
  • (CAVA)/.11
  • (CHGG)/.07
  • (CART)/.22
  • (LNW)/1.08
  • (OXY)/.74
  • (SWKS)/1.52
  • (SPOT)/1.69
  • (MODG)/-.17
Economic Releases
6:00 am EST
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Oct. is estimated to rise to 92.0 versus 91.5 in Sept.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Kashkari speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Weller speaking, Fed's Harker speaking, Loan Officer Survey, weekly US retail sales reports, NY Fed 1Y Consumer Inflation Expectations Index for Oct., OPEC monthly report, BofA Consumer/Retail Conference, UBS Healthcare Conference, Baird Industrial Conference and the Guggenheim Healthcare Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +27.0% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.8 +2.3
  • 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
  • 57.8% of Issues Advancing, 40.4% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .82 -49.4%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$272.2M
  • 409 New 52-Week Highs, 28 New Lows
  • 64.0% (+.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 67.0 +2.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.0 -.3%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 245.4 n/a
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,223.9 -.89%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 68.0 (GREED) +7.0
  • 1-Day Vix 9.2 -2.7%
  • Vix 15.1 +1.1%
  • Total Put/Call .74 -9.8%