Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth unch.
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Road & Rail -1.8% 2) Airlines -1.6% 3) Agriculture -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• NNE, ARCC, ARES, OMC, AMPL, PRU, CLMT, NXT, TROW, AFG, EQNR, EL, WGS, COLM, SNAP, CVRX, AMD, GOOG, MTCH, DAY, CSL, MKTX, GHRS, UBER, VRNS, IEX, NYT, CPRI, ALGT, RXO and FMC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FBTC 2) TKO 3) TPR 4) CFLT 5) BBAI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FMC 2) AMD 3) MTCH 4) CPRI 5) ALGT
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLV 2) XLK 3) XLY 4) PAVE 5) XLP

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives +4.0% 2) Biotech +2.7% 3) Computer Hardware +2.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AVNW, NGNE, CRTO, MRCY, DNA, MAT, ERJ, MWA, NOV, ICHR, ORIC, JCI, SKE, AMTM, AGX, GAMB, GFF, ARVN, GSK, VSH, SMCI, FI, SWTX, LB, KD, IESC, SLAB, ETNB, OKLO, CRUS, OPRA, CLS, SMR, TDOC, ASTS, OI, ARM, WDAY, SDGR, AMGN, EA, ASND, DOCN, ODFL, CGNT, HLNE, MIRM, CNK, MOD, ADTN, TECH, VOYA, ASND, PSIX, VYX, OSCR, AAON, XPO, KC, NVO, NEM, IBKR, RELY, TM, CDW, NVS, ELAN, CIEN, PSIX, COHR, SIMO, WU, PRTH, KGC, ESS, LITE, KMPR, PX, SITM and HAS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BCRX 2) JCI 3) CGC 4) BBAI 5) WGS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AVNW 2) SKY 3) CRUS 4) JCI 5) AMGN
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLB 3) ITB 4) IGV 5) KRE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AMG)/6.01
• (AGCO)/1.90
• (APD)/2.86
• (AB)/.86
• (MT)/.49
• (AZN)/1.04
• (BDX)/2.98
• (BWA)/.96
• (BMY)/1.46
• (GOOS)/1.09
• (COP)/1.83
• (LLY)/5.06
• (HSY)/2.37
• (HLT)/1.68
• (HON)/2.32
• (IDCC)/4.07
• (ITT)/1.47
• (LH)/3.39
• (BTU)/.42
• (RL)/4.53
• (RBLX)/-.45
• (TPR)/1.75
• (XPO)/.62
• (YUMC)/.29
• (ZBH)/2.30
  

After the Close: 

• (AFRM)/-.16
• (AMZN)/1.49
• (BYD)/1.79
• (NET)/.18
• (DOCS)/.34
• (ELF)/.76
• (EHC)/1.02
• (EXPE)/2.08
• (FTNT)/.61
• (ILMN)/.92
• (MCHP)/.28
• (MHK)/1.85
• (ONTO)/1.41
• (PINS)/.34
• (POST)/1.52
• (POWL)/2.61
• (SYNA)/.86
• (TTWO)/.58
• (WERN)/.21
• (FE)/.71
• (GT)/.30
• (ICE)/1.49
• (LEA)/2.58
  

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for January. 
  

8:30 am EST

• 4Q Non-Farm Productivity is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +2.2% gain in 3Q.
• 4Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise +3.4% versus a +.8% gain in 3Q.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 214K versus 207K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1870K versus 1858K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Kugler speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Daly speaking, Fed's Logan speaking, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, (ACN) annual meeting, (BZH) annual meeting and the (PSMT) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +20.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.4 +2.6
  
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 63.0% of Issues Advancing, 34.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.08 +10.2%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$201.2M
  
• 75 New 52-Week Highs, 20 New Lows
• 55.6% (+.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 61.4 +3.2
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.8 -2.4%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 254.0 -1.3%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,029.6 -1.0%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 39.0 (FEAR) +1.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 10.1 -32.7%
  
• Vix 16.1 -4.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .72 -15.3%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• Let me get this straight. Fauci’s NIAID and @USAID sent over $40M in U.S. taxpayer “support” to a scientist in Wuhan who was working on “bat coronavirus emergence” research, who also became “patient zero” for COVID-19? And the completion date for that funding was … in 2019??? Mind blowing! (pic)
• When @SenJoniErnst asked to review USAID financials, they threatened to sue her! Now, why would a US taxpayer funded organization do such a thing? Corruption. (video)
• Here’s how the USAID grift works:
• The military, under Joe Biden and Mark Milley, openly plotted to incite race riots in Africa then use USAID to swoop in and give striking protestors no-show jobs on US taxpayer dime so they keep could keep getting paid while striking and protesting in the streets. Wow! (video)
• The corrupt politicians “protesting” outside the USAID building are the ones getting money from USAID. That’s why they’re there – they want your stolen tax dollars! (video)

• @Aesthetica

• Talked to a friend who has connections within the Democratic Party and he said the level of panic over Trump and Elon shutting down USAID is unlike anything he’s ever seen. By following the money DOGE has struck a killing blow to the heart of the Democrat deep state machine.
• “If Trump/Elon want this to stick they need to completely shut down USAID or fire the entire staff, the party has instructed their allies to not make waves and blend in. USAID is 99% Democrats they will not be able to save it without risking internal sabotage.”
  

• @AnnaRMatson

• Senator Bill Cassidy just went to the senate floor to disclose the deals he made in exchange for a yes vote on RFK Jr. Read below and let me know if it was worth it. -RFK Jr will have a close working relationship with Cassidy with multiple meetings a month. -Cassidy will help hire for the health agencies. -Kennedy will work with current safety monitoring systems and not establish parallel systems. -Maintain the CDC’s advisory committee on immunization practices recommendations without changes. -CDC will not remove statements on their website pointing out that vaccines do not cause autism. -Will not use “sue and settle” techniques to change policies without Congress. -Kennedy will come in front of the HELP committee on a quarterly basis if requested. -The HELP committee chair may choose a representative for any board or commission formed to review vaccine safety. -A 30 day notice much be given to the committee if the agency seeks to make changes to any of the federal vaccine safety monitoring programs and the committee can review it. -Cassidy will use his authority to rebuff any attempt to remove the public’s access to life saving vaccines without iron clad evidence that says otherwise. -Cassidy will watch for any effort to wrongfully sew confusion about vaccines.

• @StavologyX

• From 1979-1980 Barrack Obama's Mother Stanley Ann Dunham worked as a Consultant on International Development for USAID. (thread)

• @BehizyTweets

• WATCH: The White House just released a new video listing President Trump's accomplishments since taking office. SPOILER: It's a lot. I love how this administration is blasting through the fake news. (video)

• @BennyJohnson
  

• USAID EXPOSED: The Single Largest Criminal Fraud Operation in Human History. The public’s outrage over USAID corruption is now at scale and mainstream. USAID has been fully exposed as a left-wing money laundering criminal organization. Here’s what our researchers were able to find when looking into their expenditures and why President Trump and Elon Musk must shut it down:

• @WallStreetApes

• Elon Musk just shared the Biden Admin shifted billions of dollars from helping Americans in need to facilitating illegal immigration. This is how bad it got, a NGO got paid $600 million EVERY 2 MONTHS to facilitate illegal immigration. “I spoke to a gentleman that works in DHS. He actually sends the electronic fund transfers”. LET ME REPEAT: $600,000,000 of US taxpayer money sent to an NGO, EVERY 2-3 MONTHS for illegal migrants. (video)
• There are no words to describe this, DOGE has found analyzing US Treasury Payments. - The Pentagon spend $600 million a year on sushi. - The IRS is spending $230,000 a month on Starbucks Cinnamon roast K-cups. - $1,280 per little disposable plastic cup used to drink coffee from. “This is a The IRS headquarters building where 92% of the employees are working from home. 92 out of every 100 employees in that office are home, yet they are still spending $230,000 per month on just cinnamon KC cups from Starbucks”. And there is so much more….. (video)
  

• @zerohedge
  

• Clearest Image Of US Navy's Directed-Energy Weapon Firing Laser Rounds. (pic)

• @nicksortor

• #BREAKING: The US Senate’s voicemail system is currently DOWN due to the sheer amount of calls demanding Tulsi Gabbard, RFK Jr, and Kash Patel be confirmed. My Capitol Hill sources tell me they were receiving over 600 CALLS PER MINUTE. KEEP UP THE PRESSURE. WE ARE WINNING! Call your Senator at (202) 224-3121 and DEMAND they vote to confirm!

• @MilaLovesJoe 

• BREAKING: Each year Panama charges America between $2.5-$3 MILLION to move US Navy ships through the Canal. Yesterday, President Trump and Marco Rubio ended that. It will now be FREE to move US Navy ships through the canal. Score a HUGE WIN for #47.

• @JimFergusonUK
  

• THE GLOBALIST COUP: WHY SOROS MUST BE BANNED NOW. Soros-backed NGOs are destabilizing nations, flooding the West with illegal migrants, bankrolling violent mobs, and crushing national sovereignty.

• @RepNancyMace

• This is NOT a joke. The NIH and other government agencies have spent $10 MILLION injecting animals with hormones and performing surgeries to mimic gender transitions. Oh, and it gets worse. They’re drugging animals to see how aroused they get. You read that right. Your tax dollars—hard at work.

• @Sultanknish
  

• USAID spent $18.5 billion on Islamic terrorist states in the last 5 years. Including $3.7B for the Taliban. Over $2B for 'Palestinians'. $3.4B for Yemen as part of $8B for Iranian puppet regimes. $3.3B for Somalia. Was that good or bad for our national security?

• @rawsalerts

• #BREAKING: USPS has announced it will temporarily suspend acceptance of inbound packages from China and Hong Kong Posts following China tariffs tho letters and flats not affected. (video)

• @SuePearFL

• Insane Nexrad pulse activity in the Southeast again. FEB-04-2025. Florida, Georgia, South Carolina. Wonder why Floridians are sick?! Have ringing or clicking in your ears? There’s a ‘microwave effect’ when exposed to prolonged and intense RF pulses. There is NO REASON for the Nexrad's to be operating full blast like this, there is no storm to monitor. THIS IS NOT SAFE ON ANY LEVEL. (video)

• @AreOhEssEyeEe

• Justin Trudeau's net worth in 2019 was $7.4 million USD. As of 2025, Justin Trudeau's net worth is now over $96 million USD. His salary as PM is $406,200.00/year. This math doesn't math.

• @CollinRugg
  

• NEW: Elon Musk says he thinks he can reduce the deficit by $1 Trillion next year, says it will cause a cascading effect for Americans. “I think we can take a trillion dollars out of the out of the deficit next year.” “We have a $2 trillion deficit, which is a far in excess of economic growth. If we can get that deficit in half, from 2 trillion to 1 trillion, and we can get the economic growth to match that 1 trillion growth in the money supply, that means there will be no inflation.”
• NEW: Two airport employees arrested for leaking the video footage of the D.C. collision last week to CNN. 67 people are deceased because people didn't do their jobs right and they're arresting people who shared a video? (video)
  

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.5 +1.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 56.0 +.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 71.1 +.8%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.9 +.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.34%.

• S&P 500 futures -.30%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.40%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Diminished US Trade Tensions, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.9 -9.1%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .83 -50.1%.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 71.7 +3.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 179.0 +.07%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.5 -2.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 13.3 -7.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 162.0 +32.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -9.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.0 +2.0%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$124.9M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.1 -1.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 284.0 -.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 174 +5
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.0 -2.0%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 143.8 -1.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 110.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.0 -1.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 158.4 -1.2%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 85.5 +.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.9 +.2%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.25 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -2.5 basis points +2.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 137.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 607.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 46.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 +.26%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.60 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 52.0 euros/megawatt-hour -3.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.3 -6.5 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 2.5 +.9 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.3 -.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(211 of 500 reporting) +9.0% +1.2 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.52 -.02:  Growth Rate +15.9% unch., P/E 22.0 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.11% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 10 reporting) +17.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 402.74 +.07: Growth Rate +30.2% unch., P/E 33.7 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .69 -9.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.56 -24.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve 30.0 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +3.88% +99.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.6% +.6 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.52% unch.: CPI YoY +2.85% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 61.6% (-5.1 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 45.7%(+1.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +327 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +144 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +77 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long