Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +4.5% 2) Homebuilding +4.3% 3) Gambling +3.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ELVN, MLTX, KRUS, ALMU, SERV, ONDS, KTOS, PBF, ANGI, BE, EVMN, AIRO, AIRO, VNET, KRMN, BKKT, APLD, GDS, CZR, SMPL, VELO, GLUE, ATRO, SPIR, OUST, EHAB, VELO, ADUR, LB, CMPO, LPX, GAP, PII, ASTS, TDW, RH, VOYG, LUNR, BILI, PENN, FIGR, APOG, DINO, AVAV, CMBT, NESR, QXO, M, PENG, OXY, GOOS, HAL, DRS, GMED, MOS, RDW, HII, OMCL, GBX, SATS, OVV, MAS, DFH, GBX, CL, CE, TTC, CX, LHX, BABA, F, AOS, TME, MGM, SKY, SWK, COST, ATEC, KTB, SSYS, LC, PVH, STZ, MNMD, GPK, AXTI, PFGC, AAMI, MSTR, TSCO, PRKS, SM, AIR, WY, SFM, TXT, ECO, MRCY, MNMD, AAMI, LMT, PRMB, NKE, CRESY, JOYY, CDP, ALLE, NOMD, PNR, VLO, CPAY, CVBF, HTBK, WFRD and BCO

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AEO 2) SATL 3) DDD 4) OSS 5) IP 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BW 2) BE 3) APLD 4) LAB 5) ARDX

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XBI 2) XLV 3) XLK 4) IBB 5) COPX

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Dec. is estimated at +70K versus a gain of 64K in Nov.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.1% gain in Nov.
• The Unemployment Rate for Dec. is estimated to fall to 4.5% versus 4.6% in Nov.
• Census releases Sept.-Oct. Housing Starts reports. 

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for Jan. is estimated to rise to 53.5 versus 52.9 in Dec.
• Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for Jan. is estimated to fall to +4.1% versus expectations of a +4.2% gain in Dec. 

12:00 pm EST

• 3Q Household Change in Net Worth. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Kashkari speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 update, weekly US Baker Hughes rig count, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports, American Society of Clinical Oncology Gastrointestinal Caners Symposium could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.75 +2.0 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 40.5 +2.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 108.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%. 
• Gold 4,457.1 USD/t oz. -.12%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.77 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.1 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 99.3 -.6%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.15% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.51% -1.0 basis point. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.4 +.02%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.05%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.07%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.01%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Diminishing Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Technical Selling, Profit-Taking, Utility/Gambling Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.5 +.9%
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .26 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.32 -2.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.4 +.2%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 126.4 +2.0%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.9 unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.3 -4.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.9 -5.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.2 -.1 point 
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +32.8% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 311.27 +.11:  Growth Rate +15.6% unch., P/E 22.4 +.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.50% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 486.51 +.27: Growth Rate +18.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.9 +.7
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .84 +4.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 66.75 basis points (2s/10s) -3.75 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 168.9 -2.6% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 29.2% +.5 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +2.7% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.14% -4.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.48 +2.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 55.4% (+3.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 43.9%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +190 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -84 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +153 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, took profits in utility longs and added biotech longs
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Biotech +2.9% 2) Shipping +2.2% 3) Cyber Security +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RGC, NBY, GLUE, VTYX, AXTI, HOUS, HGRS, BHVN, GLSI, CRML, COMP, CRNX, TNK, ALMS, SIMO, INSW, FRO, BE, PRMB, ECO, DHT, RIGL, TEN, PTRN, TRMD, ASC, LPTH, INTC, CMBT, FLY, STNG, CRDO, NAVN, VRNS, LEGN, UPB, ICHR, DOCU, UCTT, LGN, CRWD, WRBY, WK, ABVX, PANW, ZBIO, RARE, NVGS, BWLP, AIR, RVMD, PBF, ZLAB, VLO, INCY, AVAV, ONC, SIBN, ADUR, TRVI, GDS, KRMN, NPCE, FLNG, FTAI, OMDA, GME, LIND, LLY and JOYY

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VYTX 2) SAVA 3) NOK 4) GTES 5) GPRO 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) VTYX 2) GLUE 3) GLUC 4) ALMS 5) INTC

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLV 2) SMH 3) PAVE 4) XLB 5) XLE

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AYI)/4.59
• (CMC)/1.57
• (HELE)/1.68
• (LNN)/1.47
• (NEOG)/.06
• (RPM)/1.41
• (SMPL)/.36
• (SNX)/3.73 

After the Close: 

• (GBX)/.79
• (WDFC)/1.45 

Economic Release 

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Dec. 

8:30 am EST

• 3Q Non-Farm Productivity is estimated to rise +5.0% versus a +3.3% gain in 2Q.
• 3Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated unch. versus a +1.0% gain in 2Q. 
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 212K versus 199K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1900K versus 1866K prior.
• The Trade Deficit for Oct. is estimated at -$58.5B versus -$52.8B in Sept. 

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Nov. is estimated at $10.146B versus $9.178B in Oct.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barkin speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4, NY Fed 1Y Consumer Inflation Expectations Index for Dec., Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the American Society of Clinical Oncology Gastrointestinal Cancers Symposium could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST