Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 6,775.0 +1.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 49,498.5 +2.3%

• NASDAQ 23,708.0 +2.0%

• Russell 2000 2,624.6 +4.9%

• NYSE FANG+ 15,829.4 +1.4%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 265.1 +7.3%
• Vaneck Social Sentiment 35.0 +5.3%

• Wilshire 5000 68,990.0 +1.8%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,802.9 +1.0%

• Russell 1000 Value 2,143.9 +2.6%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 881.7 +1.9%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 273.6 +3.3%
  

• NYSE Technology 7,568.1 +2.5%

• Transports 18,164.3 +3.4%

• Utilities 1,070.7 -.6%

• MSCI Europe Banks 114.9 -.4%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 57.0 +1.7%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 252.1 +.8%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 130.5 +.8%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 594,460 +1.0%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.8 +32.2%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 698 +301

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -7.9 +3.9%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 64,591 -.5%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,898,257 +1.9%

• Total Put/Call .73 -12.2%

• OEX Put/Call .61 +18.2%

• ISE Sentiment 155.0 +4.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.3 +42.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 101.4 +.3%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .81 +3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.66 -33.0 basis points

• Volatility(VIX) 14.6 -.1%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .73 -29.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 12.3 -3.1%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.7 -2.3%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.3 -5.6%

• Smart Money Flow Index 19,775.9 -3.4%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  97.7 +4.8

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.804 Trillion +1.8%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$29.308 Million

• AAII % Bulls 42.5 +1.2%

• AAII % Bears 30.0 +11.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 51.0 (Moved to NEUTRAL from FEAR) +7.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 302.4 +1.2%

• Crude Oil 59.1/bbl. +3.6%

• Reformulated Gasoline 178.2 +5.0%

• Natural Gas 3.16 -12.2%
• US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 67.5 USD/Megawatt -3.1% 
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.4 euros/megawatt-hour -1.5%
  

• Heating Oil 213.5 +1.3% 
• Newcastle Coal 107.5 (1,000/metric ton) unch.

• Gold 4,500.9 +3.8%
• Silver 80.0 +9.9%
  

• Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 169.8 +3.5%

• Copper 589.6 +3.6%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 376.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.9%

• China Iron Ore Spot 108.9 USD/Metric Tonne +2.9%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 17,150.0 USD/metric tonne +15.3%

• CME Lumber  563.5 -1.7%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,326.3 +.6%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 305.0 USD/Short Ton -1.6%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +5.1% +2.4 percentage points

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.1 -.8 percentage point

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.1 -14.5%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 580.8 +81.0%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.8 -32.2%
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) +$1.0B
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +31.4% -1.4 percentage points

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 311.32 +n/a:  Growth Rate +15.6% +n/a percentage points, P/E 22.2 +n/a
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.5% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +17.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 486.94 +n/a: Growth Rate +18.5% +n/a percentage point, P/E 32.3 +n/a

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.8 -6.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.9 +.7 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.0 -4.1 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 5.0%(-11.6 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 95.0%(+11.6 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 1/28/26

• US Dollar Index 99.1 +.7%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,851.8 -.1%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 90,139 -.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 208.6 +.03%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.71 -1.1%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 63.5 -8.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.17% -2.0 basis points
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.42% +2.0 basis points. 

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.526 Trillion -1.0%
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $8.029 Billion -14.0%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.4 -4.5%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 183.3 -.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 63.0 -8.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.5 -1.6%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.0 -.2%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 137.0 -.4%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 68.2 +1.2%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.8 -4.6%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 +.7%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 117.6 +.9%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.6% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.3% unch.
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.6% unch.
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.0% unch.
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% +1.0 basis point: CPI YoY +2.57% -5.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.67 +32.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 +2.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -1.75 basis points +7.0 basis points
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.25 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 3.25 -.5 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 49.0 -2.4%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 181.0 -5.5% 
• High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 414.75 -2.2% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 231.0 +38.0 
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 52.9 -2.0%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 125.8 +1.6%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 97.0 -19.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 594.0 +4.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .54 unch

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.3% -30.0 basis points

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,414.6B +9.8%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 211,750 -3.3%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 56.3 unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.23% -2.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 270,800 +.3%

• Weekly Retail Sales +6.8% +.1 percentage point
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +14.0% -18.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $328.9M -3.1%

• Nationwide Gas $2.81/gallon -.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,718.0 -8.7%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,556.8/40 ft Box +15.6%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,194.9 +4.2%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.5 -18.8%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 59.8 +40.8%

• Rail Freight Carloads 211,628 +3.9%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,151,117 -17.4% 
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 45.0% +1.0 percentage point

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +5.0%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +1.0%

Leading Sectors

• Defense +12.2%

• Gold & Silver +9.3%
• Homebuilding +7.9%

• Coal +7.9%
  

• Disk Drives +7.6%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Electrification +.1%

• Utilities -.6%
  

• Video Gaming -.7%

• Networking -1.2%
  

• Gambling -2.8%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (65)

• NBY, CGON, MLTX, AEVA, ELVN, LQDA, CRML, APLD, SPRY, LGIH, TREE, SNDK, GLSI, BETR, BLDR, TWO, QURE, INTC, VST, KTOS, ASTS, CCS, FLY, EXK, AEHR, HE, ACMR, RDW, RKT, OKLO, CMPO, TOL, TIC, KALV, AVAV, FND, DHI, JCAP, COMP, WY, SCCO, AMR, MESO, ONC, SITE, PFSI, RPM, ALMS, LMT, SHC, RVMD, SMR, PSLV, OUST, ZETA, ATRO, TTAM, SKY, HCC, NVO, SLP and LEGN

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (9)

• RIO, CALM, ANIP, SIG, MDGL, PCRX, MMSI, WW and BBNX

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on US Economic/Earnings Optimism, Diminishing AI Infrastructure Build-Out Angst, US Housing Policy Changes, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,720 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +13 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +123 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/financial/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of Note

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Release 

• None of note 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, CB Employment Trends Index for Dec., 10Y T-Note auction, Needham Growth Conference, JP Morgan Healthcare Conference, (ZS) annual meeting and the UBS Energy/Utilities Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• US President Donald Trump has other options to impose tariffs if the Supreme Court says his use of a 1977 emergency law is invalid. Here's what to know. 
• BlueScope Steel’s largest shareholder, AustralianSuper, backed the company’s rejection of a A$13.2 billion ($8.8 billion) takeover approach from Steel Dynamics and Australian conglomerate SGH, saying it undervalued the business.
• Investment advisers can use artificial intelligence to help them make proxy voting decisions, a Securities and Exchange Commission official said.
• The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority has proposed rule changes aimed at combating investment scams — particularly against senior citizens — in part by empowering broker-dealers to extend delays on suspicious transactions.
• Mortgage bonds rose and home-lender stocks rallied after President Donald Trump said he was directing the purchase of $200 billion of the securities in a move to bring down the cost of housing.
• President Trump met with Intel Chief Executive Officer Lip-Bu Tan on Thursday at the White House, where the two men discussed the company’s progress on its new line of processors following the US government’s purchase of shares in the chipmaker.
• Two lawmakers, a Republican and a Democrat, ask for a national security review of a proposal that would hand control of Roomba vacuum manufacturer iRobot to its main Chinese supplier as part of a bankruptcy case.
• Merck & Co. is in talks to acquire the cancer-focused biotech company Revolution Medicines, according to a report in the Financial Times. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.       

• @ZeroHedge

• Kimmel Claims Trump Wants To 'Kill Americans'.
• Traders' Guide To The Supreme Court's Looming Tariff Ruling.
• Doug Casey On The Death Of Privacy... And What Comes Next.
• Woman Killed In Minneapolis Was "ICE Watch" Left-Wing Activist Trained To Resist Fed Agents: Report.
• About 98% of Flightradar24 coverage comes from ground-based receivers. With internet access cut off in Iran, our coverage in Iran is severely reduced and now relies mainly on limited satellite tracking.
• Trump Launches His Own QE: Directs GSEs To Purchase $200 Billion In Mortgage Bonds.
• Iran Plunged Into Internet Blackout, Protests Spread, As Trump Issues Fresh Warning.  
• US Online Holiday Shopping Hits Record $257.8 Billion: Adobe.
• Tulsi Gabbard Reportedly Kept In Dark On Venezuela Operation As Nation's Intelligence Chief.
• DXY just flashed a golden cross — and almost no one is paying attention.
• How Dare You Fight Back Against Communists!
• Black Harvard Dean Fired After Anti-White, Anti-Police Social Media Posts Resurface. 
• Bullion & Black Gold Bid, Bonds & Big-Tech Skid As Friday Fears Loom. 

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: U.S. moves over Greenland are heating up quickly.
• Asia-Pacific markets set for higher open; China inflation data in focus.
• Stock futures rise ahead of jobs report, potential tariff ruling: Live updates. 
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: General Motors, Intel, Tilray Brands & more.
• The December jobs report is due out Friday. Here's what it is expected to show.
• GM to record $7.1 billion in fourth-quarter charges due to EV pullback, China restructuring.

• @MarioNawful

• NYC PROTESTERS CHANT "KRISTI NOEM WILL HANG". Foley Square crowd escalates to death threats against DHS Secretary and "Save a life, kill an ICE" over Minneapolis shooting. Unreal. (video)

• @WarClandestine

• Notice how as soon as Trump sends DHS/ICE to Minneapolis to look at their fraud, the Dems immediately started inciting a violent insurrection… They are willing to burn this nation to the ground, in an attempt to prevent accountability for their crimes. They will fail.

• @WesleyHuntTX

• Let’s be clear about what’s happening. We’ve had a Democrat Senate candidate urge people to put their “bodies on the line.” A Minneapolis mayor tell federal immigration officers to “get the f*ck out.” And a sitting governor openly talking about mobilizing the National Guard against federal law enforcement. This isn’t de-escalation. The radical left isn’t turning the temperature down, they’re cranking it to 450 degrees. When leaders normalize this kind of rhetoric, the outcome isn’t hypothetical. It’s dangerous. It’s reckless. And it puts lives at risk. If violence follows, responsibility doesn’t belong to the officers enforcing the law, it belongs to the politicians who lit the fuse. (video) 

• @RenzTom

• Will the DOJ investigate this criminally? Draining the swamp means draining the entire Uniparty swamp. I’ll take an enemy I can see over one that’s stabbing me in the back any day. BTW, the reason the Republicans won’t pass election reform is that some of them participate in that fraud too. This is why we keep having crooked RINOs running the GOP.

• @LaraLogan

• Take a close look at who has been stealing elections all over the world & how they used your tax dollars to pay for it through USAID funding CEPPS. Note it all goes back to Smartmatic & guess who? The Open Society Foundations/George Soros. C’mon DOJ.

• @nicksortor

• NEW: This is “George Floyd Plaza” in Minneapolis TODAY. Still burned out, charred, and in TOTAL RUINS. This is what Mayor Frey and Tim Walz want to happen again ALL OVER the city in the coming days. And it very well may, as Antifa militants come into the city from all over the country. (video)

• @Awesome_Jew_

• BREAKING: Tehran has erupted. Massive crowds are torching regime buildings as the Islamic regime loses control. This is the end. (video)

• @DansForSenate

• Lindsey Graham: A Profile in Cowardice. When the going got tough on J6, Graham surrendered and betrayed South Carolina. Fresh after his 2020 reelection because of President Trump, he kicked Trump to the curb, and kissed up to ol’ buddy, Joe Biden. His floor speech that night lives in infamy. Graham called for J6 Protesters to be “shot in the head”. He refused to investigate the rigged and stolen election. He certified the fraud and fist bumped Kamala. Now desperate for reelection in 2026 and in a primary fight against Yours Truly, he flipflops, echoing claims of J6 protestors, whom he persecuted, that Venezuela stole the 2020 U.S. election. Let’s drive this snake out of DC. (video)

• @annvandersteel

• MAYOR Jacob Frey: “ICE, get the fuck out of OUR city.” Get it yet? Blue states have QUIET QUIT being part of the UNITED States. They have SILENTLY SECEDED from the union. Sure, they’ll take OUR money… …but they don’t wanna play by OUR RULES. The STOLEN $9 BILLION DOLLARS is just the symptom of a far deadlier disease: LEGITIMIZED TREASON. We the people have allowed our country to be invaded and taken over by our enemies. They INFEST our census numbers. They INFILTRATE our Congress. They WRITE our laws so they can USE our laws to BREAK our laws. This SYSTEMIC hatred of America must be rooted out before we can even BEGIN to talk about any semblance of a future. Yes, it’s all a game… …but it’s a game we need to start playing MORE FORCEFULLY and MORE SERIOUSLY. God bless America.

• @amuse 

• LAWFARE: Obama judges are dismantling Trump’s DOJ. Another US Attorney forced out while Senate leadership blocks confirmations. This is coordinated judicial sabotage of the President’s authority.

• @dezzie_rezzie

• Erika Kirk found in a decade old documentary about EMP attacks and grid vulnerability where she is briefing professionals about the threat. **The film maker, Patrea Patrick's YT has various clips from the documentary including one that includes Fox News contributor Jeanine Pirro, former AZ Congressman, Trent Franks, & former CIA director James Woolsey. (video)
  

• @MonitorX99800

• A Suspected IDF insider account having a 100% win rate with only 4 bets on polymarket and all 4 bets on Israeli military operations, has made a bet that Iran will be attacked by Israel by January 31st. (pic)

• @TonySeruga

• Buried in dry government accounting documents was a number so large it barely fit on the page: more than $21 TRILLION in unsupported accounting adjustments, waste, and fraud inside the U.S. Department of Defense and other federal agencies over roughly TWO DECADES. Not millions. Not billions. TRLLIONS. And almost immediately, the corporate press did what it always does when something threatens the system that feeds it. It slapped a label on the story. “Conspiracy theory.”
• FYI--cities flying new flags right now with the eight-point Islamic symbol are: Hutchinson, Kansas. Aberdeen, South Dakota. Kent, Ohio. Norman, Oklahoma. Wheeling, West Virginia. Springfield, Missouri. Reno, Nevada. Pocatello, Idaho. The eight-point star is also prominent on proposed new flags for: Albany, New York. Evansville, Indiana. Lowell, Massachusetts. Seattle, Washington. Toledo, Ohio. Winston-Salem, North Carolina. Washington State.

• @RepNancyMace

• Tonight Democrats and Republicans teamed up to kill my motion to subpoena the immigration records of Ilhan Omar and her brother/husband. DC did what it always does - protect its own. The American people spoke clearly in 2024 - they are tired of business as usual and backroom deals - they want REAL accountability.

• @theHFDF

• Nicole Shanahan sounds the alarm on one of the most “TERRIFYING” court rulings in history. 99% of people didn’t notice. A federal court quietly said the government can force ANY medical intervention on you. With no evidence. No judicial review. But we just fought back. The Ninth Circuit Court in California ruled that as long as government officials say a mandate is for “public health,” courts shouldn’t question them. We’re petitioning the Supreme Court to review that dangerous and unprecedented ruling. Now, this may become the most consequential Supreme Court case of the 21st century: (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.75 unch.
• China Sovereign CDS 40.75 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 108.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%. 
• Gold 4,475.9 USD/t oz. +.34%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.73 -.14%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.05 -.12%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 99.7 +.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.17% +1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.44% -7.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.0 -.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.34%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.01%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic/Earnings Optimism, Sector Rotation, Technical Buying, Consumer Discretionary/Commodity Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.3 -.6%
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .27 +1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.29 +3.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.4 -.05%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 127.1 +.01%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.7 -.2

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.4 +1.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 2 +7.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.2 +5.3 points 
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +31.4% -1.4 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 311.31 +.04:  Growth Rate +15.6% unch., P/E 22.2 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.50% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 486.76 +.25: Growth Rate +18.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.2 -.7
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .80 -4.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 69.25 basis points (2s/10s) +2.5 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 166.9 -1.2% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.1% -1.1 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +5.4% +2.7 percentage points
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.18% +3.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.56 +8.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 57.1% (+.3 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 46.5%(+1.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +520 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +4 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +170 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my biotech/tech sector longs and index hedges
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.9%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Biotech -2.9% 2) Networking -2.8% 3) AI/Innovation -2.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SNX, CRML, FG, CRTO, LOGI, JAZZ, FVRR, RVMD, SNDK, JKS, ANGO, MBLY, ICLR, INMD, MTZ, TFX, SIMO, ABVX, CSIQ, AAOI, DQ, AYI, PHAT and RGC

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CZR 2) NXT 3) CVE 4) TEAM 5) MBLY

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TFX 2) SGML 3) AYI 4) JEF 5) ABBV

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) KRE 2) SMH 3) XLU 4) ITB 5) XLP

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume