Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Mideast War Ceasefire Hopes, Bargain-Hunting, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Defense Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.4 -2.3%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.9 +1.5% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 -1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .34 -3.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.4 +.1%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 185.6 -.6%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 78.7 -.1% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .8 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.0 -1.2

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 29.7 +1.7

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -10.0 -4.7

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 45.3 -2.4 
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +85.6% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 336.81 +1.01:  Growth Rate +21.3% +.4 percentage point, P/E 19.6 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.07% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 797.88 +3.48: Growth Rate +100.5% +.8 percentage point, P/E 17.8 unch. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .46 +3.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 48.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 169.7 +.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.0 euros/megawatt-hour unch. 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 18.5% -1.3 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.6% -.3 percentage point
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.33% -1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 5.33 -1.0 basis point

• Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 97.5% (+3.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 97.5%(+7.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +490 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +7 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +n/a open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Video Gaming -1.2% 2) Pharma -1.0% 3) Computer Services -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SPIR, TSLA, AESI, TSEM, LUNR, GSAT, LGN, IVZ, LITE, AVTX, BWAY, FIGS, GBX, VOR, AXTI and VRDN

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SLNO 2) SIRI 3) WIX 4) SPCE 5) NUAI

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) VRDN 2) GOSS 3) EOSE 4) NUAI 5) PSIX

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLE 2) XLP 3) SOXX 4) XBI 5) OIH

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives +2.3% 2) Digital Health +1.4% 3) Restaurants +1.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SLNO, FUBO, AEHR, PRGS, BW, ALM, MDA, BETA, DSGN, BOOT, AAOI, AMLX, STX, DIOD, FLY, KALV, CGEM, CHA, VRSN, JBIO, ANIP, EH, MU, CAR, MRX, STM, ORKA, KRUS, MU, NRIX, PAGS, TVTX, LOCO, IMCR, AUPH and ARVN

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SLNO 2) FEZ 3) SPCE 4) EA 5) WIX 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SLNO 2) AMC 3) MVNC 4) SPCE 5) RICK

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) IYT 2) IGV 3) SMH 4) XLK 5) FDN

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• (GBX)/.82
• (LEVI)/.37
• (PXED)/.34 

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Durable Goods Orders for Feb. is estimated to fall -1.0% versus unch. in Jan.
• Durables Ex Transports for Feb. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.4% gain in Jan.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for Feb. is estimated to rise +.5%. 

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Feb. is estimated to rise to $10.5B versus $8.05B in Jan. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Jefferson speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 update, 3Y T-Note auction, ADP weekly employment change, weekly US retail sales reports, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for April, NY Fed 1Y Consumer Inflation Expectations for March, EIA short-term energy outlook, API weekly crude oil stock report and the Wells Fargo Software Symposium could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -32.4% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.1 +1.8
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 56.5% of Issues Advancing, 40.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.03 +2.0%
• Non-Block Money Flow -$122.6M
  
• 36 New 52-Week Highs, 11 New Lows
• 48.5% (+.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.6 +3.6

Polymarket: 

• How long will the DHS shutdown last? 60+ days 89.0% +2.0 percentage points
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 9.0% -1.0 percentage point
• US Invades Iran before 2027 57.0% +2.0 percentage points
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 30th 28% +4.0 percentage points 
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th 33.0% -19.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 104.7 +.6%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 92.0% -3.0 percentage points
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 513.25 -20.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 247.34 +.13%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 135.2 +.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 21.0 (EXTREME FEAR) +2.0
• 1-Day Vix 15.4 -44.1%
  
• Vix 24.1 +1.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .89 -14.4%

Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business   

• Trump Escalates Threats to Bomb Iran’s Power Plants After Rescue. 
• Donald Trump's threat to reduce the US role in keeping sea lanes open in the Gulf poses a risk to the flow of global commerce.  
• President Donald Trump says he will have a news conference “with the Military” at the Oval Office at 1 p.m. on Monday.
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.

• @Zerohedge

• Asia Is Most Exposed To Higher Energy Prices": Morgan Stanley Explores Asia's Biggest Challenges. 
• *BAHRAIN CALLS ON U.N. TO PASS RESOLUTION TO REOPEN STRAIT: WSJ. *RESOLUTION WOULD AUTHORIZE FORCE TO REOPEN HORMUZ STRAIT: WSJ.
• We now assume the Strait stays effectively shut through end-April: Morgan Stanley.  
• "Most Asian economies can use coal to replace the electricity-generating capacity lost from supply constraints to natural gas." - Morgan Stanley.
• Iran Threatens "Complete And Utter Annihilation" Of OpenAI's $30BN Stargate Data Center In Abu Dhabi. 
• OPEC+ Agrees To Boost Output By Another 206,000 Barrels A Day When Strait Of Hormuz Reopens. 
• BREAKING: Google DeepMind just mapped the attack surface that nobody in AI is talking about. Websites can already detect when an AI agent visits and serve it completely different content than humans see. > Hidden instructions in HTML. > Malicious commands in image pixels. > Jailbreaks embedded in PDFs. Your AI agent is being manipulated right now and you can't see it happening. The study is the largest empirical measurement of AI manipulation ever conducted. 502 real participants across 8 countries. 23 different attack types. Frontier models including GPT-4o, Claude, and Gemini. The core finding is not that manipulation is theoretically possible it is that manipulation is already happening at scale and the defenses that exist today fail in ways that are both predictable and invisible to the humans who deployed the agents. 
• The Four Iran War End-Games Revisited, And The Peak Pressure Points.
• "The single most frequent question I’m getting from clients right now: 'What will our kids do?'"- Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas.
• Private Credit redemption requests. (graph)   
• The Death Of The Goldilocks Playbook; Here's Goldman On The Market's Shifting Reaction Function. 
• "The Houthis started firing some missiles as Isreal, but so far have not tried to deter shipping through the Red Sea. The proxies may not have faith in Iran’s ability to support them going forward, so they are laying relatively low. So much damage was done to the proxies that they don’t have the ability to do much damage this time around. Both of those are probable, which is good. The tail risk is that they are waiting to choose a “time and place” that maximizes whatever they have left" - Academy Securities. 
• *TRUMP SAYS DON'T THINK TROOPS ON GROUND NEEDED RIGHT NOW: ABC. *TRUMP SAYS 'WHOLE COUNTRY IS GONE' IF IRAN MAKES NO DEAL: ABC.
• 1/ Your reckless moves are dragging the United States into a living HELL for every single family, and our whole region is going to burn because you insist on following Netanyahu’s commands. Make no mistake: You won’t gain anything through war crimes.
• DOE FY27 Budget Requests $45 Billion in Nuclear Funding.
• Eisen Vs Every 'Trumper': There Is Quite A Battle Shaping-Up...    
• Global Plastics Supply Chains Further Pressured As Abu Dhabi Petrochemicals Plant "Suspended" After Attack.
• A tanker carrying Iraqi oil has now crossed the Strait of Hormuz (following the “new” sea lane via Larak Island inside Iranian territorial waters). The vessel, the Ocean Thunder Suezmax, carries 1 million barrels of crude (and in the past has loaded Russian crude too).
• More than 10,000 kamikaze unmanned aerial vehicles are produced daily in factories in China. (video)   
• 'Open The F**kin' Strait': Trump Threatens To 'Blow Everything Up' If No Iran Deal By Tuesday.
• *FOX: TRUMP SAYS MULLING TAKING OVER OIL IF NO IRAN DEAL. *TRUMP SAYS HE COULD GET DEAL W/ IRAN BY TOMORROW: FOX NEWS. *TRUMP SAYS NEGOTIATORS FOR IRAN GRANTED AMNESTY FOR NOW: FOX. *TRUMP MULLS 'BLOWING EVERYTHING UP' IF NO IRAN DEAL 'FAST': FOX.
• Third Order Effects Begin: U.S. Airlines Hike Bag Fees As Jet Fuel Prices Spike.
• The Tyranny Of Compelled Speech.
• Iran Allows Iraqi Ships To Use Strait Of Hormuz As Total Weekly Transits Reach HIghest Since War Began.
• In Charts: US Does Not Rely On Strait Of Hormuz Oil While Asia Stands To Lose.
• The Real Threat From The Iran War Hits Farmers, Not Fuel Pumps.       
• Less Than Half Of Health Care Workers Received An Updated COVID-19 Vaccine: CDC.
• Tehran's Toll Booth For Hormuz Strait Divides Countries Into 3 Categories.

• @CNBC 

• Oil prices rise as Trump warns Iran to open Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday or face 'hell'.     
• Stock futures slip after a winning week as oil prices tick higher: Live updates.
• Avoid these stocks in the second quarter, says Piper Sandler.

• @MarioNawful

• BREAKING: BAPCO refinery ablaze after Iranian missile strike. The facility recently upgraded to 400,000 barrels per day capacity. Bahrain's entire refining capability is now burning. (video)
• INSANE FOOTAGE OF THE DRONE STRIKE HITTING BAKHTIYARI NEIGHBORHOOD IN IRAQI KURDISTAN. (video) 
• As the Middle East burns, this is Novorossiysk (Russia) tonight. We are not in a world war, but we’re much closer than most realize. (video)

• @Breaking911

• TRUMP: “WE GOT HIM!” WE WILL NEVER LEAVE AN AMERICAN WARFIGHTER BEHIND!”

• @KobeissiLetter

• BREAKING: President Trump tells Iran “open the f***** Strait of Hormuz, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in hell.” Trump declares Tuesday as “power plant and bridge day.”
• In another major escalation, we may lose another ~7 million barrels of daily oil supply. A key advisor to Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is now threatening to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. 

• @TheSCIF

• Obama diverted $400 million from Iran's pallets of cash through the Dubai Embassy to Italian operatives and Merrill Lynch in Geneva to fuel the stolen 2020 election, which was exposed, under oath, by Maria Zack. In return, Leonardo SpA officials used military satellites and CIA tools like Hammer and Scorecard to hack U.S. voting machines, flipping Trump votes to Biden along with other fraudulent methods, machines, mail-in ballots, and remote access. China coordinated the operation with tech and bribes, the CIA oversaw the stolen 2020 election, and the FBI covered it up, all to install Biden as a puppet to the cabal and foreign powers. This global election fraud cartel is the largest threat to American democracy and the world.

• @TrueOnX

• Bill Gates funds the world's largest mosquito factory, which breeds 30 million bacteria-infused mosquitos per week, then releases them on the unsuspecting public "to save and improve millions of lives". (video)

• @ShadowofEzra

• Mark Levin is calling for a permanent U.S. military presence in the Middle East, with troops available to defend Israel at any time. He says it's the responsibility of the U.S. military to ensure that a threat like Iran never rises again. He says a permanent U.S. military base in Israel should not be off the table. (video)

• @realMaalouf

• BREAKING: Iranian civilians in Dehdasht are reportedly blocking the streets to prevent Islamic regime forces from searching for the second pilot.  (video)

• @EricLDaugh

• HOLY CRAP. Gavin Newsom's California Medicaid program alone has reportedly lost $146 BILLION to FRAUD. Think about how much that is. Fraud raids are now RAMPING UP and arrests are happening. The Trump White House anti-fraud task force has already suspended HUNDREDS of hospice fraudsters. More raids are on the way. END GAVIN NEWSOM'S CAREER! (video)

• @PaulGoldEagle

• The U.S. just deployed a weapon that was supposed to stay classified for another decade. THE US JUST DEPLOYED "SOFT KILL" ELECTRONIC WARFARE IN IRAN → NO BULLETS, NO BOMBS, TOTAL DESTRUCTION. America just revealed a capability most people didn't know existed. Electronic warfare systems mounted on Black Hawks that can shut down an ENTIRE battlefield without firing a single round. Process that. (video)

• @Polymarket 

• JUST IN: Delta Air Lines begins cancelling certain seasonal routes, citing the Iran oil crisis.

• @JoshHall2024

• BREAKING: Current Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche is a LIFELONG REGISTERED DEMOCRAT who only changed his party affiliation to Republican in 2024 out of pure political convenience to serve in the Trump administration. He was "Obama's weaponization henchman", targeting political opponents and enemies of the Obama administration as The US Attorney for the southern district of New York during the DISGRACED former President's DISASTROUS presidency. In other words, Blanche is another wolf in sheep's clothing, no different than Pam Blondie, who has been SABOTAGING President Trump from the inside from day one. It is no wonder that there hasn't been a single Deep State prosecution under these two long-time Democrats' watch. FIRE BLANCHE AND APPOINT A REAL ATTORNEY GENERAL NOW!
• BREAKING: Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Amy Coney Barrett were reportedly spotted in Washington, DC DINING WITH the leaders and lawyers of prominent immigrant and civil rights organizations, including parties to the "birthright citizenship" case that is currently being argued before the high court. This comes as speculation has been growing that Roberts and ACB may be personally and financially compromised and working at the behest of the anti-Trump weaponized judiciary. The federal judiciary is working to actively undermine the will of the American people by SABOTAGING the agenda of the President that 80+ million of us elected. It is seriously time for President Trump to start DISOBEYING court orders... 

• @amuse

• WAR: Could it be possible that Iran negotiated secret deals with France, Switzerland, Austria, Italy, and Spain to close their airspace to US air traffic in exchange for safe passage of their ships through the Strait of Hormuz? I'm doubtful they would betray the US so brazenly, but that's what Mr. Bridgen is claiming.

• @DD_Geopolitics

• BREAKING | The US government has requested all commercial satellite imagery providers indefinitely withhold imagery from the Middle East conflict zone, retroactive to March 9. Planet, one of the world's leading satellite imagery companies, confirms it is complying. Independent verification of strike damage, civilian casualties, and infrastructure destruction is now being suppressed at Washington's request.

• @DawnsMission

• They're spraying our skies everyday. Billionaire-backed Stardust Solutions is launching chemical sprays 11 miles above the entire U.S.—starting April. Hiding behind an EPA loophole to dodge all accountability. Why isn't anything being done about this? (video)

• @BabakTaghvaee1

• BREAKING: Widespread attacks on oil and gas fields in Kuwait, with power outages reported across multiple areas. The IRGC Aerospace Force is using Shahed-136 one-way attack drones. This is a retaliation of launch of PrSM tactical ballistic missiles by the US Army from Kuwait at several energy infrastructures in Iran. (video)

• @BRICSinfo

• JUST IN: Over 50 Senior Iranian officials killed by US airstrike in Iran, Fox News reports. (video)

• @DD_Geopolitics

• BREAKING: Iranian drones struck two power and water desalination plants in Kuwait, causing "significant material damage," according to the country’s Ministry of Electricity. Two power generation units have been shut down. (video)

• @ShaykhSullaiman

• BREAKING: HABSHAN OIL PLANT IN UAE ON FIRE.

• @GeneralMCNews

• BREAKING: Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche says the DOJ has now released all of the files related to the Epstein saga and will not be changing his mind about it.

• @ItsTheEnforcer

• BREAKING: Russia’s major Black Sea fleet port of Novorossiysk has suffered one of the most extensive attacks of the war. Russian air defense seems to have either failed or was largely nonexistent — WOW. (pic)

• @SamanthaTaghoy

• EASTER SUNDAY TERROR ATTACK Islamic terrorists in Pakistan just drove a truck into a crowd of Christian worshippers during an Easter Sunday vigil. Multiple people are dead, and at least 60 more are critically injured. And once again, the West is silent. This is genocide. (video)

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 86.5 -1.0 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 51.25 +1.0 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.08%.
• Crude Oil 113.0/bbl. +1.3%
• Gold 4,645.7 USD/t oz. -.74% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.60 +.12%. 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.37 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 105.1 +1.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.35% +1.0 basis point. 
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.73% +3.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.2 +.9%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
• S&P 500 futures -.02%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.16%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 25% Net Long heading into the week.