Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Protracted Mideast War Fears, Global Supply Chain Disruption Worries, Technical Selling, Alt Energy/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.2 +3.3%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.5 -.7% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .31 -3.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.0 +.8%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 187.4 +1.0%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 79.1 +.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .8 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.5 -.5

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 29.0 -.7

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -14.4 -4.4

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 42.4 -2.9 
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +85.6% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 337.01 +.20:  Growth Rate +21.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.5 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.07% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 797.88 +1.64: Growth Rate +101.0% +.5 percentage point, P/E 17.8 unch. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .50 +4.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 50.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 169.5 -.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 53.2 euros/megawatt-hour +6.4% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 18.5% unch.
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.3% -.3 percentage point
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.32% -1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 5.38 +5.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 91.9% (-3.0 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 89.9%(-3.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +116 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -90 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +346 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.9%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -2.4% 2) Alt Energy -2.3% 3) Airlines -2.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• UAL, VIK, NKE, DSGN, AEHR, RH, KMB, ONON, STRL, MBX, FND, TMHC, ENPH, LE, NNE, MESO, MNR, GCT, AXON and PLSE

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) PSKY 2) TSCO 3) SIDU 4) RXRX 5) VRDN

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) INO 2) ALIT 3) EOSE 4) SMR 5) IBRX

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) KRE 3) XLV 4) XRT 5) IYE

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Healthcare Providers +4.1% 2) Networking +1.4% 3) Oil Service +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ALHC, CAR, UNH, PSKY, SLVN, HUM, SSL, BETR, AAOI, BKSY, CVS, FRPT, REPX, RLAY, AXTI, ORKA, AORT, VITL, NRIX, MEOH, BCAX, TNC, NWE, BKH and INTC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PSKY 2) XHB 3) PTEN 4) HTZ 5) PRMW 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) UNH 2) ALHC 3) SILO 4) AVGO 5) HUM

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) IGV 2) XLE 3) XLU 4) SOXX 5) XLI

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (DAL)/.59
• (RPM)/.35 

After the Close: 

• (APLD)/-.15
• (STZ)/1.71
• (PSMT)/1.57 

Economic Releases 

10:30 am EST 

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +713,000 barrels versus a +5,451,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,272,670 barrels versus a -586,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -597,330 barrels versus a -2,111,000 barrel decline prior. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.95% versus a -.8% decline prior. 

2:00 pm EST

• FOMC Meeting Minutes for March 18th. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Waller speaking, 10Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for April, (FDX) investor day, (LEN) annual meeting, (DKS) investor meeting, (PLAB) annual meeting and the JPMorgan Retail Round-Up forum could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -15.9% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 20.1 +5.0
• 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
• 39.1% of Issues Advancing, 59.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.17 -6.4%
• Non-Block Money Flow -$239.0M
  
• 40 New 52-Week Highs, 31 New Lows
• 48.0% (-.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.9 -.7

Polymarket: 

• How long will the DHS shutdown last? 70+ days 61.0% +16.0 percentage points
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 9.0% unch.
• US Invades Iran before 2027 60.0% +3.0 percentage points
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 30th 34% +6.0 percentage points 
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th 38.0% +5.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 104.2 -.5%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 92.0% unch.
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 518.25 +6.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 247.2 -.3%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 134.7 -.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 22.0 (EXTREME FEAR) +1.0
• 1-Day Vix 23.1 +27.8%
  
• Vix 26.2 +8.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .94 -2.1%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @ZeroHedge

• The United Kingdom will refuse to allow the United States to use its airbases, particularly RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia which long-range strategic bombers with the U.S. Air Force have previously utilized on a case-by-case basis to carry out strikes on Iran, for missions that target Iranian bridges, power plants, or other civilian infrastructure, citing concerns that such strikes could harm civilians and constitute war crimes, senior officials tell The i Paper.
• US Secretly Repositions Bulk Of Stealth Cruise Missiles For Iran War.
• Fires and explosions in Jubail, a major industrial and port city on the eastern coast of Saudi Arabia, located in the Eastern Province, following a reported attack. (video) 
• Top University Dubbed 'MIT Of Iran' Bombed Along With Several Airports.
• For The Doubters & The Dreamers: Goldman's Hedge Fund Honcho Goes 'Back To Basics'.
• Wyoming's Helium Empire Ascends As Qatar Gas Goes Flat.
• Ex-CIA Analyst: What The Hell Happened With The Pilot Rescue Op In Iran?.
• Bitcoin Bid But Most Markets 'Meh' Ahead Of Trump's Iran Deadline.     
• UBS: Trump's Historic Military Budget Request Could Boost Beaten-Down Defense Stocks.
• Big Pharma Forced To Yank COVID Vaxx Study Due To Lack Of Participants. 
• Trump Threatens To 'Take Out Entire Country Of Iran' Tomorrow Night, Demands 'Free Traffic Of Oil' In Hormuz.
• *TRUMP THREATENS IRAN'S DECIMATION BY MIDNIGHT TUES. IF NO DEAL. *TRUMP: I DON'T WANT TO DESTROY IRAN'S INFRASTRUCTURE.

• @CNBC

• Asia-Pacific markets set to open higher as investors assess mixed messaging on Iran war.  
• Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session. 
• S&P 500 futures are little changed as Trump’s deadline to reopen Strait of Hormuz nears: Live updates.
• Broadcom agrees to expanded chip deals with Google, Anthropic.
• Epstein files: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick set for May 6 interview by House Oversight. 
• Trump administration finalizes better-than-feared Medicare Advantage payment rate in boost to health insurers.

• @MarioNawful

• IMPORTANT: Iran seems to already be retaliating to what Trump threatened to do tomorrow. They are striking Gulf infrastructure hard tonight. This is the opposite of backing down. 
• BREAKING: Iranian missiles struck Al Jubail, Saudi Arabia. Large fire burning. Al Jubail is the largest industrial city in the Middle East, home to massive petrochemical and desalination complexes. (video)
• The relationships that shaped this war... Trump never campaigned on attacking Iran. He promised to end wars. So how did we get here? Jared Kushner grew up with Netanyahu staying at his family home. After the first term, he raised $2 billion from Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund and invested heavily in Israeli markets. He became the financial bridge between Riyadh and Tel Aviv. In February, diplomats said a deal was within reach. The Pentagon told Congress Iran had no plans to attack. But the message that reached Trump was different: no deal was possible. Netanyahu spent months making the case for war. MBS called repeatedly backing it. Both had deep ties to the same person who had the President's ear.

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• More & more Americans are talking about suing the federal government for the daily poisoning of their skies. (video)

• @ValerieAnne1970

• “I was one of the people approving the Chemicals.” “It’s now collectively being admitted, in order to combat Climate Change.” Listen to Chemtrail Whistleblower & Former Military Engineer Kristen Meghan. (video)

• @GeneralMCNews

• BREAKING: Rep. Mike Lawler is pushing for a mass amnesty plan for illegal immigrants through his bill, "The Dignity Act," which would make them all legal.
• BREAKING: Israeli journalist Amit Segal, who is close to Netanyahu and leaked details about the missing second pilot in Iran, feels confident he won’t be charged by the Department of Justice. 

• @OwenShroyer1776

• Trump thanks Jared Kushner for the great job he's doing on the Middle East. Keep in mind, during the campaign, Trump voters were told Kushner would not be a part of the Administration.

• @BRICSinfo

• JUST IN: 15 Americans injured in Iranian drone strike on Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait.

• @Breaking911

• Iran is threatening strikes on data centers operated by Amazon, Microsoft, and Oracle across the Middle East. 
• Massive explosions and huge fires erupted at Mehrabad International Airport in western Tehran following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes. (video) 
• WATCH: Massive explosion from a tanker near the Bridge of the Americas in Panama City, Panama. (video) 

• @KobeissiLetter

• BREAKING: Iran has delivered its highly anticipated "10-point" response to the US' "15-point peace plan." Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran to provide rules for safe passage through Hormuz 10. Iran to use Hormuz fees for reconstruction instead of reparations. President Trump's "deadline" for a peace deal with Iran is 25 hours away.. 

• @HormuzLetter

• BREAKING: Israel struck a power plant in Mashhad, Iran's second-largest city, between 20:30 and 21:00 local time, per Babak Taghvaee. Power Station 123 near Mosalla Street was hit 26 hours before Trump's deadline. The strike came from Israel, not the US. Israel is operating on its own timeline. (video)
• BREAKING: Netanyahu urged Trump in a Sunday call not to pursue a ceasefire with Iran, per Axios. Israel had already killed the accord before Iran formally rejected it. Trump's "not good enough" earlier today now reads as a pre-decided position and not a response to Iran's reply. 
• BREAKING: Traffic on the King Fahd Causeway, the only land link between Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, has been suspended due to Iranian air raid threats, per the King Fahd Causeway Authority. The closure follows Iran's missile attack on Jubail tonight, in the same Eastern Province where the alert was issued. Saudi Arabia is physically cutting infrastructure between sovereign territories as Trump's deadline approaches. (pic)

• @LaurenLee

• WOW. Dr. Malone Just Exposed a MASSIVE MRNA Coverup by the White House! RFK Jr. and MAHA leaders have been directed to amplify "low-hanging fruit" issues "like nutrition" to divert attention away from Covid jabs! "The failure to aggressively advance MAHA agendas beyond easy and politically acceptable things like nutrition [is evident]." "The easy easy things, the low-hanging fruit, are being picked, while things that aren't very controversial (and do play well with the public) are are being advanced." "There there has been significant coverup all the way through the COVID crisis... the leadership right now is not willing to allow that information to become public." This is CRIMINAL. (video)

• @pati_marins64

• The US and Israel are carrying out intense bombing raids on Iran’s South Pars petrochemical complex, which accounts for 85% of the country’s production in this sector. The damage is massive, yet the complex covers 54,000 hectares and would require many days of sustained heavy bombing to achieve its total destruction. Even so, the losses are certainly in the range of tens of billions of dollars in destroyed infrastructure and lost profits. (video)

• @sayerjigmi

• The Epstein files revealed a twenty-year architecture of child trafficking, institutional complicity, and federal coverup. Then came Iran. Check Google Trends. Epstein spikes in February. Iran war dominates March. The files didn't disappear — the attention did. Epstein didn't kill himself. The files won't extinguish themselves either. The record is public, documented, and retrievable. No news cycle closes it. I've been quiet on the Epstein files for a reason. Something significant is coming.

• @jackunheard

• BREAKING: Abigail Spanberger’s approval rating after just 80 days is the worst of any Virginia governor in the 21st century.

• @Melgibsonacts

• World Economic Forum elites openly admit that chemicals are being sprayed into the atmosphere to cool the planet and even onto the food supply. One insider admits most of these operations are handled by the military, carried out quietly and behind closed doors. James O’Keefe went undercover at the World Economic Forum, capturing officials on camera admitting to what’s long been dismissed as “conspiracy theory.” “A lot of the work actually came out of the military,” one admits. “They do this all the time — and it’s actually pretty cheap to do.” (video)

• @DawnsMission

• Bill Gates turned $55 million into $1.1 billion on one stock. Months before COVID was heard of, he quietly poured it into German biotech BioNTech. Pandemic hits. BioNTech partners with Pfizer on the world’s first mRNA vaccine. Stock explodes. He knew! (video)

• @JustJenRX

• Democrat candidate for the GA State House Suzanna Karatassos says when Democrats take back control, anyone who voted for Trump will lose internet privileges for 4 years. AND THIS RIGHT HERE IS WHY YOU BETTER NOT STAY HOME ON ELECTION DAY. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.75 -.75 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 51.25 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 106.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%. 
• Crude Oil 115.10/bbl. +2.5% 
• Gold 4,655.3 USD/t oz. -.63%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.60 +.13%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.40 -.1%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 105.1 +.4%
• US 10-Year Yield 4.35% +2.0 basis points.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.79% +3.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.7 +1.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.18%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.57%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.77%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.