Monday, May 04, 2026

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Mideast War Resumption Fears, Higher Long-Term Rates, Technical Selling, Homebuilding/Transport Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.0 +1.6%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 78.4 +.2% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .22 -3.0 basis points
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .00 unch.
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.7 +.8%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 163.8 +3.1%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 66.9 -1.5% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 +.1
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 85.8 -5.5
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.9 +11.8
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -62.6 +8.2
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 46.5 -2.4
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(320 of 500 reporting) +28.0% -2.1 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 349.59 +4.66:  Growth Rate +26.1% +1.6 percentage points, P/E 20.6 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.28% +15.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +61.9% -10.8 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 841.66 +15.97: Growth Rate +112.6% +4.0 percentage points, P/E 19.6 +.2 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .96 +4.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 48.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 176.1 -.9%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.6 euros/megawatt-hour +6.3% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 16.4% -.8 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.5% -20.0 basis points
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.44% +7.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.34 +8.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 93.6% (+4.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 91.4%(+5.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -60 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -43 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/energy sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -.9%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding -3.3% 2) Road & Rail -2.4% 3) Banks -1.9%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • LYTS, HD, FSV, PK, ETD, LKQ, NEWT, AAUC, NPKI, IMAX, ALHC, SAFE, TGLS, BCC, PATK, TSCO, ABG, BDC, MCHB, SIMO, QCOM, MRTN, ENVA, BLLN, PPC, ENVA, AEVA, BRCB, MHK, BLLN, AMD, ATMU, UFPI, FCN, EXPD, WING, PWP, CNA, L, HTLD, AEHR, ATOM, ODFL, GME, AMWD, CHDN, LPTH, NVTS, IDCC, AMWD, LCII, FIGS, FDX, VITL, NCLH, CHRW, UPS, MZTI, MPLT, NSSC, MRAM, BZH, GXO, FWRD, CCOI and XNDU
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) ARRY 2) DLR 3) MTUM 4) XP 5) PINS
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) UPS 2) FDX 3) NSSC 4) CCOI 5) FWRD
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) VGT 2) COPX 3) VCR 4) IGV 5) GDX

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Software +2.4% 2) Energy +1.7% 3) Biotech +1.3%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CRCL, VCX, CELC, CGEM, NBIS, DXYZ, QUIK, BTGO, AXSM, NICE, MIRM, IREN, OUST, CTNM, CRML, GRPN, WYFI, HNGE, REAL, FIG, FLGT, CRNC, RBLX, AGRO, APLD, FIVN, CRWV, RYTM, INR, OPCH, SMMT, EBAY, ORCL, MU, INDV, SDGR, INDV, TWLO, TDC, BETA, NTLA, DO, MYRG, RVI, XNCR, ETOR, PENG, VRNS, SYNA, ICHR, LIFE, OPLN, PHAT, TSN, ETON, POWL, GLBE, WK, ORKA, GFS, LFUS, ZM and VSH
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) FXY 2) XRX 3) ITB 4) JEF 5) CRCG 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) CELC 2) CRCL 3) CNSP 4) MU 5) EBAY
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLE 2) XLF 3) XLK 4) XLI 5) SMH
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ADM)/.64
  • (AGCO)/.44
  • (AEP)/1.57
  • (APTV)/1.63 
  • (CCJ)/-.10
  • (CIFR)/-.22
  • (CMI)/5.63
  • (DUK)/1.87
  • (DD)/.48
  • (ETN)/2.73
  • (ENR)/.47
  • (IT)/2.92
  • (HOG)/.22
  • (IDXX)/3.41
  • (LDOS)/2.90
  • (LTH)/.34
  • (PYPL)/1.27
  • (PFE)/.72
  • (RGEN)/.38
  • (RYTM)/-.82
  • (ROK)/2.88
  • (SHOP)/.33
  • (BLD)/3.64
  • (TDG)/9.43
  • (KBR)/.91 
After the Close: 
  • (AMD)/1.29
  • (ANDE)/.70
  • (ANET)/.81
  • (ALAB)/.54
  • (LEU)/.37
  • (DAVE)/2.64
  • (EA)/2.39
  • (EMR)/1.53
  • (EOG)/3.23
  • (J)/1.63
  • (JAZZ)/1.66
  • (JOBY)/-.21 
  • (LYV)/-.35
  • (LITE)/2.27
  • (PBI)/.43
  • (PRU)/3.10
  • (MSTR)/-.86
  • (SMCI)/.62
  • (VECO)/.19
  • (WOLF)/-3.78 
Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

  • The Trade Deficit for March is estimated at -$61.0B versus -$57.3B in Feb.
  • Imports MoM for March is estimated to rise +2.7% versus a +4.3% gain in Feb.
  • Exports MoM for March is estimated to rise +1.9% versus a +4.2% gain in Feb. 

10:00 am EST

  • The ISM Services Index for April is estimated to fall to 53.7 versus 54.0 in March.
  • The ISM Services Prices Paid Index for April is estimated to rise to 73.0 versus 70.7 in March.
  • New Home Sales for March is estimated at 660K.
  • JOLTS Job Openings for March is estimated to fall to 6850K versus 6882K in Feb. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, weekly US retail sales reports, weekly API crude oil stock report, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for May, (PNR) annual meeting, (AXP) annual meeting, (LSTR) annual meeting, (HUBB) annual meeting, (WEX) annual meeting, (OSK) annual meeting, (D) annual meeting, (BAX) annual meeting, (GE) annual meeting, (MTW) annual meeting, (RF) annual meeting, (CVNA) annual meeting, (MRTN) annual meeting, (PLNT) annual meeting, (GRDN) annual meeting, (SKYW) annual meeting and the Barclays Select Franchise Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST


Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +3.8% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.4 +.2
  • 1 Sector Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
  • 27.7% of Issues Advancing, 70.3% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .69 -51.1%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$350.1M
  • 99 New 52-Week Highs, 27 New Lows
  • 54.4% (-3.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 54.3 -5.0
Polymarket: 
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 7.0% unch.
  • Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31st 26.0% -23.0 percentage points
  • US Invades Iran before 2027 35.0% unch.
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 117.5 +.7%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 95.0% unch.
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 485.25 -4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 255.2 -.1%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 147.2 +1.1%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 64.0 (GREED) -1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 13.0 -5.2%
  • Vix 18. +10.6%
  • Total Put/Call .79 +4.0%

Sunday, May 03, 2026

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business   
  • @Zerohedge 
  • @CNBC 
  • @MarioNawful
  • This might be the most futuristic thing you’ll see today: Artificial skylights that use LED panels + nanotechnology to create hyper-realistic blue skies and sunlight in completely windowless rooms. You can even switch from bright midday sun to warm sunset glow with a remote. We’re now simulating the sky indoors because real windows are apparently too much to ask for in dense cities. This is either peak innovation…or lowkey dystopian. You decide.
  • Look at Europe’s rape rates: The highest are all in the West and North. The lowest? All in Eastern Europe. The ugly reality: Mass immigration from high-risk cultures drove the real explosion in the West. Eastern Europe kept cultural homogeneity, strong borders, and traditional norms, delivering genuinely lower rape rates. The data clearly favors the East for women’s safety. (table) 
  •  @MattZirwas
  • @TheSCIF
  • @sxdoc
  • Congressman Burchett: “human trafficking”. Is sanitized. THEY ARE SELLING THESE KIDS TO BE RAPED! They are demonic and must be stopped! They deserve to be hanged. Bring them on down to the farm! “. We must start taking this seriously! @GenFlynn Maybe the reason we don’t take it as seriously as we should is because many serve in government in some capacity (all bodies, all branches, all agencies, activities, and departments). Our nation, the United States of America, is NUMBER 1 (#1) in the entire world for child sex and slave trafficking. We have exceeded a moral decline and societally we are in the pits of hell. Help yourselves by climbing out and standing up for children. Otherwise, God help us and God help you. (video)
  • @Liz_churchill10 
  • @AmberWoods100
  • @annvandersteel
  • @Brash_1  
  • @DeepDivesUSA
  • @realstewpeters
  • @ArkansasAngle
  • @nogps1
  • @ValerieAnne1970
  • 42 CLOUD SEEDING PROJECTS. 200 MORE COMING. $2.6M FROM THE FEDS." They're not just seeding the sky ~ they're launching weather control from the ground. "That's a ground-based cloud seeder. The flame coming out is sending tiny silver iodide particles up into the sky." They’re launching chemicals into the atmosphere from land and air. No oversight. No consent. They’re not predicting the weather, they’re manufacturing it. (video)
  • @ReturnOfKappy
  • @JackDangerLIVE
  • @SternDrewCrypto
  • BILL GATES FUNDS FIRST MAN MADE SYNTHETIC BACTERIA THAT CAN DESTROY MANKIND. After 15 years and 40 million dollars from Bill Gates, scientists have crossed the ultimate line. They created the FIRST SYNTHETIC SPECIES. A bacteria designed entirely on a computer with a synthetic chromosome built by humans, not nature. It is alive. It is self replicating. It grows and makes copies of itself indefinitely. (video)
  • @NicHulscher
  • @Mariobojic
  • Heartbreaking scenes from Odessa as more than 20 Ukrainians kidnapped by Zelensky are loaded onto a bus and sent straight to their deaths. Desperate wives fight to stop the vehicle carrying their husbands to the front lines. Why is the EU supporting this? (video)
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.25 -1.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.25 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 108.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%.
  • Crude Oil 101.70/bbl. -.3%
  • Gold 4,628.0 USD/t oz. -.4% 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.73 +.24%. 
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.51 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 117.1 +.2%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.37% unch. 
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.75% +1.0 basis point. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.6 -.9%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.21%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.11%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.29%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% Net Long heading into the week.