Thursday, May 14, 2026

Friday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @TheTranscript 
  • Applied Materials CEO: "Applied Materials delivered record quarterly performance & we now expect our semiconductor equipment business to grow more than 30 percent in calendar 2026." CFO: "The growth in AI that Applied has been investing for is now in full force."
    $AMAT: +4% AH.
  • @WallStEngine
  • $AMAT Q2'26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $7.91B (Est $7.68B) ; +11% YoY. Adj. EPS: $2.86 (Est $2.68) ; +20% YoY. Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 50.0%. Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 32.1%. Semiconductor Systems Revenue: $5.97B. Q3 FY26 Guide: Revenue: $8.45B-$9.45B (Est $8.15B). Adj. EPS: $3.16-$3.56 (Est $2.90). Segment Performance:
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @EricLDaugh
  • BREAKING: The US Supreme Court has ruled 9-0 that freight brokers can be held LIABLE if they negligently hire unsafe trucking companies — including those with ILLEGAL ALIEN and FOREIGN drivers who violate CDL rules and cause accidents.
  • @ScottPresler
  • @nicksortor
  • @GeneralMCNews
  • BREAKING: Thomas Massie moves to finish what John F. Kennedy started, introducing a bill requiring AIPAC to register under the Foreign Agents Registration Act.
  • @OcrazioCornPop
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.75 +.5 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 41.5 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 109.6 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%. 
  • Crude Oil 102.7/bbl. +1.5% 
  • Gold 4,616.8 USD/t oz. -1.5%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.66 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.35 -.21%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 122.1 unch.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.51% +3.0 basis points.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.97% +7.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.7 +.8%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.0%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.30%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.45%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by metals & mining and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, De-Escalating US/China Trade Tensions, US Economic Optimism, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.0 -.2%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 74.0 +1.0% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 -1.0 basis point
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.14 -1.0 basis point
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.1 -1.4%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 156.9 -.1%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 60.0 -3.9% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 unch.
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 86.8 -2.3
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.5 -2.0
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -53.7 +.4
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 43.5 -6.1
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(453 of 500 reporting) +25.1% -.1 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 353.91 -.37:  Growth Rate +27.7% -.1 percentage point, P/E 21.2 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.36% -6.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +62.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 858.35 +1.70: Growth Rate +116.8% +.4 percentage point, P/E 20.5 +.2 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.02 +1.0 basis point
  • US Yield Curve 46.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 188.2 -.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.8 euros/megawatt-hour +1.9%
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 15.6% +.7 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.0% +.3 percentage point
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.46% -1.0 basis point
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.14 -7.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 95.3% (-3.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 85.4%(-5.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +380 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -4 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -38 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech/energy/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -1.9% 2) Nuclear -1.2% 3) Social Media -1.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • KEP, RGEN, GOOS, STN, MP, MFC, NTLA, JKHY, BIIB, KRNT, KC, QUIK, PSIX, EQPT, WBTN, LIFE, VNET, BETA, BILI, ALHC, OMER, RXO, PBH, CSIQ, LGN, PDFS, DXYZ, BTGO, GSIT, CRVS, ALMU, LWLG, RVI, MEI and DOCS
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) DOCS 2) AS 3) TMC 4) INOD 5) SATS
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CSIQ 2) RXO 3) KROS 4) PYXS 5) INVZ
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLI 2) SMH 3) XLF 4) XRT 5) IGV

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +1.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Cyber Security +2.9% 2) Networking +2.7% 3) Road & Rail +2.0%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • POET, ONDS, RDW, PCT, ARX, BRUN, PLGO, KLAR, CPA, AMRC, ENPH, UMAC, CSCO, KNX, PLSE, LUMN, SAIL, SNDR, NVMI, ADUR, ASTS, STAA, FPS, QUBT, DIN, FIGR, EXTR, VSNT, SEPN, NBIS, UMC, CLPT, WERN, WYFI, VIK, F, COIN, WYFI, TFII, WOLF, BN, TTWO, CLBT, FLY, ALGT, EYE, ZVRA, RKLB, JBHT, APP, ASYS, VOYG, RGTI, ASST, FIG, BL, HMC, SHAZ, DRTS, NEXA, IREN, HPE, ELVA, ZBRA, ODFL, CELH, BCC, AIP, WK, GMTL, RLI, AEVA, ARMK, TSM, ARCB, SN, INFQ, HSIC, CRBG, NOW, ANET, NVTS, HSIC, MARA, DT, LBRDK, TSLX, RDY, CHTR, NVDA, CORZ, MELI, MRTN, QXO, AEIS, BKSY, UTI, DOX, INR, PAHC and CIFR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) XLB 2) BILI 3) UNIT 4) BN 5) COPX 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) CSCO 2) POET 3) STUB 4) PGEN 5) KLAR
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) DRAM 2) ARKK 3) XLV 4) BAI 5) NASA
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (RBC)/3.33
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

  • The Empire Manufacturing Index for May is estimated to fall to 7.3 versus 11.0 in April. 

9:15 am EST

  • Industrial Production MoM for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.5% decline in March.
  • Capacity Utilization for April is estimated to rise to 75.8% versus 75.7%  in March.
  • Manufacturing Production for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.1% decline in March. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports, US Baker Hughes weekly rig count, (ICE) general meeting, (MEDP) annual meeting, (OII) annual meeting, (COHU) annual meeting, (KRYS) annual meeting and the (FORM) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +1.3% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.9 +.8
  • 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
  • 67.2% of Issues Advancing, 30.3% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.14 -7.3%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$234.3M
  • 112 New 52-Week Highs, 39 New Lows
  • 54.6% (+2.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 56.8 +4.8
Polymarket: 
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 6.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31st 27.0% +3.0 percentage points
  • US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30th 35.0% +2.0 percentage points 
  • US Invades Iran before 2027 28.0% unch.
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 121.6 -.2%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 95.0% unch.
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 456.0 -3.75 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 258.6 +.04%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 155.6 +.2%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 66.0 (GREED) -1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 11.6 +.3%
  • Vix 17.6 -1.7%
  • Total Put/Call .63 -10.0%