Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, Rising Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Short-Covering, Financial/Transport Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 +.1%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.06% -3.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.72% -3.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.2 euros/megawatt-hour +.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 2.8 -8.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 24.8 +7.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.4 +2.1 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(487 of 500 reporting) +13.0% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 305.44 +.09:  Growth Rate +13.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.4 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +17.5% -.1 percentage point
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 509.07 +.40: Growth Rate +24.0% -1.2 percentage points, P/E 32.5 -.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .64 +3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.47 +9.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.4 -.1
• US Yield Curve 56.0 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 32.5% unch.

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.57 -3.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 64.8% (+.4 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 43.0%(-2.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -94 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -56 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +83 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware -2.0% 2) Alt Energy -.6% 3) Video Gaming -.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BWIN, ABVX, CNK, CHA, ADPT, NAMS, THO, OMDA, ULS, ARE, OS, ACHC, GTLB and PSTG

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) IRBT 2) PSTG 3) AA 4) AR 5) DG

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PYPL 2) ACHC 3) PSTG 4) ARE 5) GTLB

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) PSI 2) XLF 3) XBI 4) XLU 5) PKB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +3.7% 2) Airlines +2.8% 3) Road & Rail +2.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CAPR, MPLT, AHMA, AEVA, PHVS, AEO, FTRE, KALV, KMTS, IE, ADUR, IMNM, SITM, GENI, ARWR, SERV, CRCL, QNST, MCHP, NBR, VERA, ON, TERN, DRVN, PRCT, ENR, AA, TEX, BBW, DKS, CBLL, WERN, NVCR, WERN, AMKR, IREN, CPRI, VRTX, DIOD, ZD, MRVL, SMMT, VAL, JANX, SN, BOX, ODFL, BMY, FOXF, ELF, ASAN, ALK, STM, SCVL, FIGS, BWLP, NXPI, AAUC, OKTA, BKV, SD, BDC, AUGO, EGBN, NCNO, FIVE, CAI, FCX, BMNR, FISV, DXYZ, ZUMZ, ALAB, PVH, DEPU, QXO, KNX, SYNA, ASIX, LLYVK, VYX, RAL, VERX, TOST, SBLK, CAVA, SPR, NESR, DLTR, VALE, OI, AEBI, ATXS and SPR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) IRBT 2) CRH 3) BOX 4) PSTG 5) VOD 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AEO 2) MRVL 3) ALAB 4) UNH 5) IRBT

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLV 2) MAGS 3) XLE 4) SOXX 5) SILJ

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BMO)/2.16
• (BF/B)/.48
• (CM)/.48
• (DG)/.95
• (DCI)/.92
• (HRL)/.30
• (HOV)/.63
• (KR)/1.03
• (TD)/1.43
• (RH)/2.16 

After the Close: 

• (AGX)/2.04
• (COO)/1.11
• (DOCU)/.92
• (HPE)/.58
• (RBRK)/-.17
• (S)/.05
• (SWBI)/.02
• (SFIX)/-.05
• (ULTA)/4.61
• (ZUMZ)/.27 

Economic Release 

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Nov. 

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 220K versus 216K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1961K versus 1960K prior. 

Upcoming Splits

• (NOW) 5-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 update, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Goldman Sachs Industrials/Autos Conference, Barclays Eat/Sleep/Play/Shop Conference, UBS Tech/AI Conference, (WYNN) investor meeting, (NOW) shareholders meeting and the Jefferies Renewables/Clean Energy Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -17.6% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.8 +.7
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 65.2% of Issues Advancing, 32.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.05 -32.3%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$140.3M
  
• 82 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
• 61.9% (+1.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 57.9 +2.0

Polymarket:

• Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 26.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 28.0% +2.0 percentage points
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 15.0% +1.0 percentage point
• US-Venezuela military engagement by Dec. 31st 45.0% +1.0 percentage point

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 91.7 +.3%
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 417.5 -5.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 257.7 +.8%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 160.6 -.8%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 27.0 (FEAR) +1.0 point
• 1-Day Vix 9.1 -12.7%
  
• Vix 16.3 -2.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .80 +2.6%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• The European Union has reached a deal to phase out Russian natural gas by 2027, the latest move to ratchet up pressure on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. 
• An economist at one of China’s biggest investment banks said the time has come for authorities to allow for more appreciation in the yuan, a decision that would give consumers greater spending power and cool trade tensions.
• President Trump signed into law a measure forcing the US State Department to review guidelines for the country’s engagement with Taiwan, according to the White House.
• The SEC has issued warning letters to some of the US's most prolific providers of high-octane ETFs, effectively blocking the introduction of products designed to deliver two or three times the daily returns of stocks, commodities and cryptocurrencies.
• A coalition of tech companies backed by the White House’s AI chief appears to have failed to persuade lawmakers to block state governments from regulating AI, a key congressional Republican signaled.
• Vistra — one of the biggest US power-sector beneficiaries of the AI boom — was upgraded to investment grade by S&P.
• CrowdStrike raised its fiscal year 2026 guidance, signaling resilient demand for the company’s expanding portfolio of AI-enabled cybersecurity products. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.  

• @ZeroHedge

• "Power Up America" Needs 500,000 Highly Skilled Workers.
• Republican Matt Van Epps is projected to defeat Democrat Aftyn Behn in a special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District: Decision Desk.
• Why Healthcare Is In A Death Spiral: Follow The Money.
• This is also a chance for justice in Ukraine, Mr. Trump. I've been imprisoned for two years on fabricated charges because in 2019 I spoke at a press conference about the Bidens’ corruption in Ukraine. Zelensky and Yermak jailed me in 2023 and lobbied for OFAC sanctions against me to curry favor with Biden, who was hiding his corruption in Ukraine behind the “Russia hoax” narrative. Nullifying Hunter Biden’s pardon would give me a personal chance for freedom. In Ukraine, I have no hope for justice: for two years I have not won a single case despite a complete lack of evidence against me. They are simply keeping me in pre-trial detention (SIZO) to prevent my political activity. -@Dubinsky_pro.  
• National Teachers Union Training Members To Promote LGBT Ideology, Parents Group Says.
• SUMMARY: No agreement was reached, and significant work remains ahead. Putin's conversation with Witkoff and Kushner, however, was useful and constructive, Advisor Ushakov said. Key points:  
• US halts immigration applications for people from these 19 countries.
• Energy Affordability Has Become The Kitchen-Table Issue Of The 2020s.
• The New York Times Busts WaPo Over Bogus Hit Piece On Hegseth.
• Gas Prices Hit Four-Year Low, Forcing Even CNN To Admit Affordability Squeeze Easing.
• Crypto Crashes Up As Stocks, Bonds, & The Dollar Chop.  

• @CNBC

• Okta beats third-quarter earnings expectations.
• American Eagle stock jumps 15% as it expects a big holiday, raises forecast after Sydney Sweeney ads.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: CrowdStrike, American Eagle Outfitters, Marvell Technology, GitLab and more. 
• Marvell to acquire Celestial AI for as much as $5.5 billion. 
• Stock futures are little changed after major U.S. averages rebound on bitcoin bounce: Live updates.
• Asia-Pacific markets set to open mixed after Wall Street's tech-fueled recovery.
• Wednesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session. 

• @WSJ  

• Companies used to hate employees posting about their jobs. Now they want them to be in-house TikTok influencers.
• Lawrence Summers has been banned for life by the American Economics Association, in a further blow to the former Treasury Secretary and Harvard University president stemming from recent revelations about his ties to the late Jeffrey Epstein.
• Food-company stocks sagged Tuesday as the San Francisco city attorney sued some of the nation’s biggest food manufacturers, accusing them of knowingly making and marketing harmful foods.

• @MarioNawful 

• NEW STUDY REVEALS: THE SMARTPHONE CHILDHOOD EXPERIMENT IS OFFICIALLY BACKFIRING. A massive, NIH-backed study just dropped a quiet bomb on modern parenting: Kids who get smartphones by age 12 face higher risks of depression, poor sleep, and obesity. Not because of what they do on the phone - just owning one was enough.

• @nicksortor

• BREAKING: Obama Judge Boasberg, the activist judge whose illegally STIFLES every move Trump makes, has REFUSED to testify at tomorrow’s Senate hearing on rogue judges. THIS IS BULLSHlT! Subpoena him, FORCE him to appear, and if he doesn’t, ARREST HIM! Enough is enough!

• @LauraLoomer

• EXCLUSIVE: SECRETARY OF THE ARMY’S OFFICE PLOTTING COUP AT THE PENTAGON TO REMOVE @SecWar PETE HEGSETH AND REPLACE HIM WITH
  @SecArmy DAN DRISCOLL. 

• @newstart_2024 

• Cambridge professor on stage: “If you think spraying chemicals to dim the sun is ‘playing God’… the only alternative is to cull the human population back to 1 billion. Anyone volunteer?” Dead silence. Then he laughs: “Didn’t think so. Get over it — we now have a permanent duty to manage the planet.” This is NOT a conspiracy clip from 2015. This is 2025. This is the director of Cambridge’s Centre for Climate Repair. And the UK just created a secretive DARPA-style agency called ARIA — £800 million of taxpayer money, zero FOIA, zero accountability — that is RIGHT NOW funding real-world experiments to spray particles into the stratosphere to block the sun. Harvard’s SCoPEx got shut down after global backlash. So Bill Gates & friends simply moved it to Britain. (video)
• Tucker Carlson just asked Dr. Daniel Amen the question that stopped millions mid-scroll: A Mayo Clinic study shows: → Healthy fat lovers (avocados, nuts, salmon, olive oil, greens) → 40% LOWER Alzheimer’s risk → Carb-heavy eaters (bread, pasta, rice, potatoes, sugar, juice) → 389% HIGHER risk (nearly 4X!) Dr. Amen’s exact words: “Your daily bread, pasta, and rice could be stealing your future memories.” (video) 
• Lara Logan delivered one of the clearest, most powerful breakdowns you’ll hear this year — and it’s only 2 minutes long. Her core argument: many of today’s biggest “crises” share the exact same pattern on purpose. They take something natural or unavoidable… → label it a fatal flaw → declare it impossible to ever fully fix → and then demand endless control to “manage” it. Examples she gives: • Breathing out CO2 (essential for plants & all life) → framed as planetary poison • Natural human tendency to feel most comfortable around shared culture & values (Chinatown, Little Italy, every diaspora ever) → branded as bigotry • Normal masculine or feminine instincts → called “toxic” • Even consciousness itself → “unconscious bias” you can never fully escape “Create a problem that can never be solved,” she says, “and you can rule through it forever.”  

• @TheIntelSCIF

• There's MASSIVE ELECTION FRAUD, and our own CIA is behind it, along with globalist billionaires like George Soros, the CCP, Venezuela, and the Democrat Party. This isn't only happening in America. This is an organized effort using U.S. taxpayer dollars. This election fraud cartel consists of running propaganda and social media slander campaigns, coordinated protests and riots, produces fake IDs, fake ballots, uses software and hardware, including servers and voting machines that are able to be manipulated, and have people on the inside running the elections to manipulate and RIG ELECTIONS in over 100+ other countries. (video)

• @KobeissiLetter

• BREAKING: For the first time in history, total assets in US money market accounts have surpassed $8 trillion. Money market funds are now paying a record ~$500 billion in dividends per year. (graph)

• @unusual_whales

• Rate of adoption of AI, per NYT: (graph)

• @disclosetv

• JUST IN - RFK Jr.'s vaccine advisers plan to vote on ending vaccination of all newborns for hepatitis B and reexamine whether vaccines in the childhood immunization schedule are behind rising allergies and autoimmune disorders — WaPo.

• @DailyCaller

• Elise Stefanik GOES OFF on Mike Johnson following his response to a question from
  @AndiNapier this morning about Stefanik's accusation that the Speaker is 'protecting the deep state.' (video)

• @EricLDaugh

• JUST IN: It's been confirmed that Trump Accounts can grow to $191,000 THOUSAND dollars from age 0 to 18, and then to over $2 MILLION up to retirement, with the maximum contribution of $5,000 per year. To start, Trump seed money: +$1,000. Michael Dell: +$250. This will teach American kids about saving VERY early, and the government can't touch this money. You don't even need to make the $5K max to get a huge benefit from this. Incredible idea. This is how you help the next generation. (video)

• @BreannaMorello

• President Donald Trump cancels all autopen documents done by the deep state operatives! (pic)

• @DavidSacks

• Narrative violation: it’s a great time to be a construction worker. Electricians, carpenters, welders, plumbers, dry wall hangers, concrete pourers, equipment installers — all seeing their wages up 25-30% as a result of the AI boom.

• @OcrazioCornPop

• TWO-TIER JUST-US: When a Republican like Steve Bannon refuses to testify before a Democrat-run House committee, he gets arrested and jailed. When a Democrat like James Boasberg refuses to testify before a Republican Congress, nothing happens. WHY DOES @SpeakerJohnson ALLOW THIS?

• @mitchellvii

• The only reason the Senate will not end the filibuster rule is that they WANT to lose the majority because they get richer in the minority and never get held responsible for results!

• @amitisinvesting

• Wow. From Morgan Stanley’s customer checks in Asia: “Customers biggest anxiety for the next 12 months is their ability to procure enough NVIDIA product generally, and Vera Rubin specifically.” $NVDA is a buy. While the market is worried about an AI bubble, the biggest concerns from customers on if they would be able to even procure enough Nvidia chips. Funny to see the datacenter names like $NBIS and $IREN move higher today, almost as if the market is so scared about Nvidia that they are fine to buy the neoclouds plugging in all the Nvidia GPUs into the datacenters but not Nvidia itself.

• @JasonJournoDC

• NEW: @ScottJenningsKY reveals what "KEEPS [HIM] UP AT NIGHT". "Losing elections. The biggest danger to momentum is losing the next election. If they win, they will impeach the president again. If they win big and somehow get control of the Senate, they will eliminate the filibuster." "If they were to win in ’26 and ’28, they will pack the courts. They will make D.C. and Puerto Rico states. They will do a lot of terrible things in a very, very short period of time." (video)

• @TheMagaKing2_0

• Day 332 since John Thune became Senate Leader. And he has done nothing to codify Trump’s executive orders. Nothing to push the America First agenda. Nothing to secure election integrity. Nothing to confirm Trump’s judges. Nothing to rein in lawless judges. Nothing to nuke the filibuster. He’s protecting the status quo. He’s losing on purpose. He’s handing the Senate back to the Democrats. He’s obstructing the will of the people. John Thune must go.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.75 -1.25 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 45.75 -1.75 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.81 +.05%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.2 -.1%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 91.9 +.5%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.08% -1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.40% +1.0 basis point 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.7 +.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.18%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.16%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.25%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.