Tuesday, June 21, 2005
Tuesday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The euro may weaken for a second day in Asia on speculation the European Central Bank will reduce interest rates from a six-decade low.
- SpiceJet Ltd., the newest of a half dozen low-fare carriers that started flying in India, said it plans to double the purchase of Boeing's aircraft to meet greater-than-expected travel demand.
- CNOOC Ltd., China's largest offshore oil and gas producer, may bid about $20 billion in cash for Unocal Corp., the eighth-biggest US oil company, trumping an offer from Chevron.
- Crude oil is falling from a record in NY on speculation OPEC will raise its output quota for a sixth time in a year to bolster global stockpiles and stem price gains.
Wall Street Journal:
- Qingdao Haier Ltd, a Chinese appliance maker, and private equity companies Blackstone Group and Bain Capital are preparing a $16/share bid for Maytag.
- European manufacturers continue to be hurt by the strength of the euro, despite the currency's 9.2% drop against the dollar since the middle of March.
La Tribune:
- French Finance Minister Thierry Breton may today cut his forecast for domestic growth in 2005 to between 1.5% and 2%, from a previous range of 2% to 2.5%.
China Daily:
- China may impose controls on investments in the production of some petrochemical products to prevent oversupply in the domestic market.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on GE, BHI, SII, SLB, RIG and DO.
- Reiterated Underperform on VTS.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated unch.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
CMC/1.25
JBL/.33
LEN/1.28
Upcoming Splits
None of note
Economic Releases
None of note
Bloomberg:
- The euro may weaken for a second day in Asia on speculation the European Central Bank will reduce interest rates from a six-decade low.
- SpiceJet Ltd., the newest of a half dozen low-fare carriers that started flying in India, said it plans to double the purchase of Boeing's aircraft to meet greater-than-expected travel demand.
- CNOOC Ltd., China's largest offshore oil and gas producer, may bid about $20 billion in cash for Unocal Corp., the eighth-biggest US oil company, trumping an offer from Chevron.
- Crude oil is falling from a record in NY on speculation OPEC will raise its output quota for a sixth time in a year to bolster global stockpiles and stem price gains.
Wall Street Journal:
- Qingdao Haier Ltd, a Chinese appliance maker, and private equity companies Blackstone Group and Bain Capital are preparing a $16/share bid for Maytag.
- European manufacturers continue to be hurt by the strength of the euro, despite the currency's 9.2% drop against the dollar since the middle of March.
La Tribune:
- French Finance Minister Thierry Breton may today cut his forecast for domestic growth in 2005 to between 1.5% and 2%, from a previous range of 2% to 2.5%.
China Daily:
- China may impose controls on investments in the production of some petrochemical products to prevent oversupply in the domestic market.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on GE, BHI, SII, SLB, RIG and DO.
- Reiterated Underperform on VTS.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated unch.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
CMC/1.25
JBL/.33
LEN/1.28
Upcoming Splits
None of note
Economic Releases
None of note
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower on declines in consumer shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly higher on lower energy prices. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.
Monday, June 20, 2005
Stocks Close Modestly Lower on Light Volume
Indices
S&P 500 1,216.10 -.07%
DJIA 10,609.11 -.13%
NASDAQ 2,088.13 -.09%
Russell 2000 641.84 -.36%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,059.05 -.07%
S&P Barra Growth 582.61 -.10%
S&P Barra Value 629.19 -.05%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 584.52 -.03%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 740.83 -.40%
Morgan Stanley Technology 482.92 +.19%
Transports 3,572.05 -.55%
Utilities 378.76 +.28%
Put/Call .96 -6.80%
NYSE Arms .83 +5.79%
Volatility(VIX) 11.47 -.09%
ISE Sentiment 145.00 +35.51%
US Dollar 88.44 +.89%
CRB 313.76 +.89%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 59.10 +1.08%
Unleaded Gasoline 164.10 -.37%
Natural Gas 7.59 -1.24%
Heating Oil 166.00 +.50%
Gold 439.50 -.11%
Base Metals 127.34 +.09%
Copper 158.60 -1.12%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.10% +.95%
Leading Sectors
Broadcasting +1.32%
Airlines +1.22%
Biotech +.66%
Lagging Sectors
Gold & Silver -1.64%
Homebuilders -1.69%
Steel -2.83%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on LAZ.
- Reiterated Underperform on BA.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Qualcomm is being investigated by the US International Trade Commission over an accusation that the company illegally imported mobile-phone chips at the center of a patent dispute with Broadcom.
- John Rigas, the 80-year-old founder of Adelphia Communications, was sentenced to 15 years in prison for looting the cable-tv company and lying about its finances.
- The euro fell the most this month against the dollar after European Union leaders failed to agree on the group’s seven-year budget, adding to concern economic integration will slow.
- Electronic Data Systems said it is in talks to sell its AT Kearney consulting division to an undisclosed “third party.”
- Carlyle Group and Extell Development agreed to buy three apartment buildings and a tract of land on Manhattan’s Upper West Side from a group of Hong Kong investors and Donald Trump for $1.76 billion.
SportsBusiness Journal:
- Sprint Corp. is close to signing a five-year, $200 million deal to sponsor the NFL and broadcast game clips and audio via wireless devices.
S&P 500 1,216.10 -.07%
DJIA 10,609.11 -.13%
NASDAQ 2,088.13 -.09%
Russell 2000 641.84 -.36%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,059.05 -.07%
S&P Barra Growth 582.61 -.10%
S&P Barra Value 629.19 -.05%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 584.52 -.03%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 740.83 -.40%
Morgan Stanley Technology 482.92 +.19%
Transports 3,572.05 -.55%
Utilities 378.76 +.28%
Put/Call .96 -6.80%
NYSE Arms .83 +5.79%
Volatility(VIX) 11.47 -.09%
ISE Sentiment 145.00 +35.51%
US Dollar 88.44 +.89%
CRB 313.76 +.89%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 59.10 +1.08%
Unleaded Gasoline 164.10 -.37%
Natural Gas 7.59 -1.24%
Heating Oil 166.00 +.50%
Gold 439.50 -.11%
Base Metals 127.34 +.09%
Copper 158.60 -1.12%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.10% +.95%
Leading Sectors
Broadcasting +1.32%
Airlines +1.22%
Biotech +.66%
Lagging Sectors
Gold & Silver -1.64%
Homebuilders -1.69%
Steel -2.83%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on LAZ.
- Reiterated Underperform on BA.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Qualcomm is being investigated by the US International Trade Commission over an accusation that the company illegally imported mobile-phone chips at the center of a patent dispute with Broadcom.
- John Rigas, the 80-year-old founder of Adelphia Communications, was sentenced to 15 years in prison for looting the cable-tv company and lying about its finances.
- The euro fell the most this month against the dollar after European Union leaders failed to agree on the group’s seven-year budget, adding to concern economic integration will slow.
- Electronic Data Systems said it is in talks to sell its AT Kearney consulting division to an undisclosed “third party.”
- Carlyle Group and Extell Development agreed to buy three apartment buildings and a tract of land on Manhattan’s Upper West Side from a group of Hong Kong investors and Donald Trump for $1.76 billion.
SportsBusiness Journal:
- Sprint Corp. is close to signing a five-year, $200 million deal to sponsor the NFL and broadcast game clips and audio via wireless devices.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly lower on losses in my Homebuilding and Software longs. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was slightly negative today as the advance/decline finished lower, sector performance was mixed and volume was light. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Overall, today’s market action was neutral. The 15-point reversal today in shares of Google (GOOG) is very bullish considering the mostly negative weekend news on the stock. I expect shares to test $300 again over the coming weeks. Google is still my largest long position.
Stocks Modestly Lower Mid-day on Rising Energy Prices
Indices
S&P 500 1,213.93 -.25%
DJIA 10,588.01 -.33%
NASDAQ 2,087.03 -.15%
Russell 2000 642.87 -.20%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,042.58 -.21%
S&P Barra Growth 581.80 -.24%
S&P Barra Value 627.91 -.25%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 583.43 -.22%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 739.70 -.55%
Morgan Stanley Technology 482.69 +.15%
Transports 3,570.76 -.59%
Utilities 377.57 -.03%
Put/Call 1.03 unch.
NYSE Arms .91 +16.18%
Volatility(VIX) 11.58 +.87%
ISE Sentiment 145.00 +35.51%
US Dollar 88.48 +.95%
CRB 312.51 +.49%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 59.00 +.99%
Unleaded Gasoline 164.60 -.07%
Natural Gas 7.60 -1.17%
Heating Oil 166.00 +.50%
Gold 440.10 +.02%
Base Metals 127.34 +.09%
Copper 158.75 -1.03%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.09% +.71%
Leading Sectors
Broadcasting +2.17%
Airlines +1.71%
Biotech +.74%
Lagging Sectors
Gold & Silver -1.23%
Homebuilders -1.56%
Steel -2.85%
S&P 500 1,213.93 -.25%
DJIA 10,588.01 -.33%
NASDAQ 2,087.03 -.15%
Russell 2000 642.87 -.20%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,042.58 -.21%
S&P Barra Growth 581.80 -.24%
S&P Barra Value 627.91 -.25%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 583.43 -.22%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 739.70 -.55%
Morgan Stanley Technology 482.69 +.15%
Transports 3,570.76 -.59%
Utilities 377.57 -.03%
Put/Call 1.03 unch.
NYSE Arms .91 +16.18%
Volatility(VIX) 11.58 +.87%
ISE Sentiment 145.00 +35.51%
US Dollar 88.48 +.95%
CRB 312.51 +.49%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 59.00 +.99%
Unleaded Gasoline 164.60 -.07%
Natural Gas 7.60 -1.17%
Heating Oil 166.00 +.50%
Gold 440.10 +.02%
Base Metals 127.34 +.09%
Copper 158.75 -1.03%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.09% +.71%
Leading Sectors
Broadcasting +2.17%
Airlines +1.71%
Biotech +.74%
Lagging Sectors
Gold & Silver -1.23%
Homebuilders -1.56%
Steel -2.85%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower mid-day on losses in my Software and Homebuilding longs. I pared a few longs this morning and added NUE short, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. I am using a $55 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market is modestly negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are higher and volume is light. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Today’s overall market action is neutral, considering another move higher in energy and disappointing Leading Indicator report. According to the Washington Service, insiders in the energy sector sold more than in any other S&P 500 sector last week. There were no buys and $76,200,943 in sells. Energy-related companies with the most pronounced insider selling last week include: Amerada Hess (AHC), Transocean (RIG), Burlington Resources (BR), EOG Resources (EOG) and National-Oilwell Varco (NOV). I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close on short-covering and pullback in long-term rates from session highs.
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The US Supreme Court told a lower court to reconsider a decision that trimmed the power of federal prosecutors to press cases against child pornographers.
- The US Supreme Court agreed to consider limiting antitrust suits against pharmaceutical companies, computer makers and other patent holders.
- US companies that generate most of their revenue overseas, such as McDonald’s and Colgate-Palmolive, may trail the stock market this year as the dollar’s surge hurts sales and earnings.
- Crude oil is rising above $59/bbl. to a second-straight record in NY as producers struggled to meeting increasing fuel consumption.
- The euro fell the most this month against the dollar after European Union leaders failed to agree on the group’s seven-year budget, adding to concern economic integration will slow.
- Time and Newsweek have agreed to eliminate tobacco ads from four magazines distributed to school libraries.
- The Fed is likely to continue a “moderate pace” of interest rate increases, even as inflation and inflation expectations remain low, said Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Richmond Fed.
Wall Street Journal:
- Cablevision Systems’ chairman and president offered to take the cable-tv provider private for $7.9 billion.
- The threat of house-price slumps in some parts of the US has risen, partly because of laxer lending standards, according to Fannie Mae.
- US drugmaker Wyeth will cut as much as 30% of its 2,500 fulltime sales force by the end of the year.
- Toronto-Dominion Bank and Ameritrade Holding are close to a deal.
- JetBlue Airways Group plans to issue an American Express credit card that will accumulate points on the discount carrier’s frequent flier program.
- Chinese antique furniture prices are soaring as growing demand prompts dealers to scour remote villages in China for artifacts.
- These are hard times for any company involved in steel, excess supply having led to an eight-month decline in steel prices, and metal service centers such as Ryerson Tull, Olympic Steel and Reliance Steel are more vulnerable than most.
- Procter & Gamble and other companies are expected to put more money this fall into placing products in television shows as digital video recorders make it easier to skip traditional commercials.
Barron’s:
- Molecular Devices, which makes measurement systems used in discovering new drugs, has highly profitable and rare products that are helping the company increases sales.
Guardian:
- The European Union needs to find consensus to engage in economic change and become competitive in global markets or face decline, EU Trade Commissioner Mandelson wrote.
Die Welt:
- UPS expects European sales to growth by a “double-digit” percentage this year as the delivery company continues an expansion into Eastern Europe.
- The US Supreme Court told a lower court to reconsider a decision that trimmed the power of federal prosecutors to press cases against child pornographers.
- The US Supreme Court agreed to consider limiting antitrust suits against pharmaceutical companies, computer makers and other patent holders.
- US companies that generate most of their revenue overseas, such as McDonald’s and Colgate-Palmolive, may trail the stock market this year as the dollar’s surge hurts sales and earnings.
- Crude oil is rising above $59/bbl. to a second-straight record in NY as producers struggled to meeting increasing fuel consumption.
- The euro fell the most this month against the dollar after European Union leaders failed to agree on the group’s seven-year budget, adding to concern economic integration will slow.
- Time and Newsweek have agreed to eliminate tobacco ads from four magazines distributed to school libraries.
- The Fed is likely to continue a “moderate pace” of interest rate increases, even as inflation and inflation expectations remain low, said Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Richmond Fed.
Wall Street Journal:
- Cablevision Systems’ chairman and president offered to take the cable-tv provider private for $7.9 billion.
- The threat of house-price slumps in some parts of the US has risen, partly because of laxer lending standards, according to Fannie Mae.
- US drugmaker Wyeth will cut as much as 30% of its 2,500 fulltime sales force by the end of the year.
- Toronto-Dominion Bank and Ameritrade Holding are close to a deal.
- JetBlue Airways Group plans to issue an American Express credit card that will accumulate points on the discount carrier’s frequent flier program.
- Chinese antique furniture prices are soaring as growing demand prompts dealers to scour remote villages in China for artifacts.
- These are hard times for any company involved in steel, excess supply having led to an eight-month decline in steel prices, and metal service centers such as Ryerson Tull, Olympic Steel and Reliance Steel are more vulnerable than most.
- Procter & Gamble and other companies are expected to put more money this fall into placing products in television shows as digital video recorders make it easier to skip traditional commercials.
Barron’s:
- Molecular Devices, which makes measurement systems used in discovering new drugs, has highly profitable and rare products that are helping the company increases sales.
Guardian:
- The European Union needs to find consensus to engage in economic change and become competitive in global markets or face decline, EU Trade Commissioner Mandelson wrote.
Die Welt:
- UPS expects European sales to growth by a “double-digit” percentage this year as the delivery company continues an expansion into Eastern Europe.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)