Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Wal-Mart Stores said April same-store sales in the US increased about 6.8% on sales of Easter food and clothing. The company had projected an April sales gain of 4% to 6%.
- Iran, whose nuclear program is being reviewed by the UN Security Council, is keen to negotiate a solution on “large-scale” uranium enrichment, said Hamid Reza Asefi, a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry.
- Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Iran is “playing games” in its latest offer to negotiate on uranium enrichment, and the US will continue pressing for possible sactions at the UN.
- Shares of Toshiba Corp., Japan’s second-largest chipmaker, rose after the company forecast profit would gain and reported record annual sales on demand for chips used in mobile phones and music players such as Apple Computer’s(AAPL) iPod Nano.

Wall Street Journal:
- Higher prices for crude oil and gasoline may help change US energy policy meaningfully for the first time since the 1970s.

NY Times:
- New York officials have revived a plan to develop a fourth major airport for the NYC region amid predictions its three airports will reach maximum capacity in 15 years.
- Mexico passed a law early yesterday that permits legal possession of small amounts of drugs such as heroin, marijuana and cocaine and mandates treatment for addicts.
- The US government may seek to use espionage laws to put more pressure on reporters to disclose their sources for stories on classified information.
- Most US charities collected as much or more money last year than in 2004, citing a survey by the Assoc. of Fundraising Professionals.

San Francisco Chronicle:
- Leaders in California’s Silicon Valley issued a formal request yesterday for proposals to build a wireless Internet network that will encompass cities in four counties stretching from Daly City to Santa Cruz.

Economist.com:
- Among its latest record-busting yardsticks was Goldman Sachs’(GS) 40% quarterly return on equity.

Barron’s:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average will climb another 5% to almost 12,000 by the end, institutional investors told Barron’s.

San Jose Mercury News:
- Intel Corp.(INTC), which on Thursday announced plans to restructure, has turned to marketing chief Eric Kim to remake the company’s image as a cutting-edge supplier of microprocessors.

Nikkei Financial Daily:
- Japanese assets held by hedge funds rose 38% last year as pensions and other institutions broadened investments amid a recovery in the nation’s shares.

Financial Times:
- Hedge fund managers are increasingly avoiding risky investments to retain customers and fees, citing Julius Baer Holding AG’s GAM hedge fund unit. It is difficult to find managers willing to take the level of risk required to generate returns demanded by wealthy investors, citing GAM.
- The Kremlin signed a multi-million dollar contract with a US-based PR firm to improve communications with western press while Russia heads the Group of Eight industrial nations.
- US television broadcasters and networks are concentrating on digital component in pitches for advertising dollars.

Independent:
- C. Boyden Gray, the US ambassador to the European Union, said US regulations may have to be eased to stop an exodus of companies from New York to London to list their shares.

El Universal:
- Venezuela, the world’s fifth-largest oil exporter, approved a plan to build 15 plants to produce ethanol.

Shanghai Securities News:
- China may stop approving new steel plants to curb excess capacity in the country, citing Luo Bingsheng, vice chairman of the China Iron and Steel Association.

AFP:
- Iranian troops shelled positions held by Kurdish guerrillas in Iraq’s northern Arbil province, the second attack of its kind in the last 10 days.
- Iraq’s government is close to reaching an agreement with seven insurgent groups on ending violence, citing a statement from Iraqi President Jalal Talabani.

The Business:
- Dow Jones(DJ) and China’s Xinhua News Agency may bid for AFX News Ltd., the financial unit of AFP, rivaling an offer from Thomson Corp.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on (XRX).
- Had negative comments on (UNM).

Night Trading
Asian indices are unch. to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.22%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.23%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (AG)/.11
- (ARG)/.43
- (CHK)/.98
- (CMVT)/.98
- (FSH)/.83
- (HUM)/.43
- (PLAY)/.35
- (SWN)/.30
- (SYY)/.32
- (TSN)/-.25

Upcoming Splits
- (LEH) 2-for-1
- (SONC) 3-for-2

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST:
- Personal Income for March is estimated to rise .4% versus a .3% gain in February.
- Personal Spending for March is estimated to rise .4% versus a .1% gain in February.
- PCE Core for March is estimated to rise .2% versus a .1% gain in February.

10:00 am EST:
- Construction Spending for March is estimated to rise .4% versus a .8% gain in February.
- ISM Manufacturing for April is estimated to fall to 55.0 versus a reading of 55.2 in March.
- ISM Prices Paid for April is estimated to rise to 70.0 versus a reading of 66.5 in March.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to trade modestly lower into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Click here for The Week Ahead by Reuters

There are a number of economic reports of note and significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. - Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Core, Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing

Tues. - Pending Home Sales, Total Vehicle Sales

Wed. - Factory Orders, ISM Non-Manufacturing

Thur. - Non-farm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, Initial Jobless Claims

Fri. - Change in Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Consumer Credit

Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. - Chesapeake Energy(CHK), Fisher Scientific(FSH), Humana Inc.(HUM), Sysco Corp.(SYY), Tyson Foods(TSN)

Tues. - Administaff(ASF), Archer-Daniels(ADM), Caremark Rx(CMX), CB Richard Ellis(CBG), Cephalon(CEPH), CNA Financial(CNA), DreamWorks Animation(DWA), Duke Energy(DUK), Electronic Data Systems(EDS), Emerson Electric(EMR), Genesis Microchip(GNSS), IAC/InterActive Corp.(IACI), Loews Corp.(LTR), Sirius Satellite(SIRI), St. Joe(JOE), Timberland(TBL), TXU Corp.(TXU), Verizon Communications(VZ), Vornado Realty(VNO)

Wed. - Allergan Inc.(AGN), Alltel(AT), Cigna Corp.(CI), Clear Channel(CCU), Clorox(CLX), Devon Energy(DVN), Electronic Arts(ERTS), GlobalSantaFe Corp.(GSF), Hewitt Assoc,(HEW), JDS Uniphase(JDSU), Lone Star Steakhouse(STAR), Marsh & McLennan(MMC), Patterson-UTI(PTEN), PG&E Corp.(PGC), Priceline.com(PCLN), Procter & Gamble(PG), Prudential Financial(PRU), QLogic(QLGC), Qwest Communications(Q), Safeguard Scientific(SFE), Starbucks(SBUX), Teekay Shipping(TK), Terex Corp.(TEX), Tidewater(TDW), Time Warner(TWX), Whole Foods Market(WFMI)

Thur. - Activision(ATVI), Andrx Corp.(ADRX), Avid Technology(AVID), Chiquita Brands(CQB), Conseco Inc.(CNO), CVS Corp.(CVS), Eastman Kodak(EK), Estee Lauder(EL), Goodyear Tire(GT), International Paper(IP), Kerr-McGee(KMG), Las Vegas Sands(LVS), Legg Mason(LM), Marvel Entertainment(MVL), Maytag Corp.(MYG), McKesson(MCK), News Corp.(NWS/A), Transocean Inc.(RIG), Tyco Intl.(TYC), Univision Communications(UVN), Wynn Resorts(WYNN)

Fri. - Cablevision Systems(CVC), El Paso Corp.(EP), Medco Health Solutions(MHS), Mills Corp.(MLS), Nabors Industries(NBR), Pixar(PIXR), Sina Corp.(SINA), THQ Inc.(THQI)

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. - None of note

Tue. - Kaufman Brothers Small-cap Growth Forum, CSFB Semi/Semi Equip. Conference, Lehman Brothers Retail Conference, Deutsche Bank Healthcare Conference, Merrill Lynch Tech Gathering, Interop Las Vegas

Wed. - Deutsche Bank Securities Health Care Conference, CSFB Semi/Semi Equip. Conference, Merrill Lynch Tech Gathering, Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference, Interop Las Vegas, Banc of American Basic Industries Conference, Lehman Brothers Retail Conference

Thur. - Banc of American Basic Industries Conference, Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference

Fri. - Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as better-than-expected earnings reports, lower energy prices and lower long-term rates are offset by mixed economic data and profit-taking. My trading indicators are giving mostly bullish signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,310.61 -.05%*



Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: Overall, last week's market performance was mildly bearish. The advance/decline line fell, most sectors declined and volume was above average on the week. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower. The AAII % Bulls rose to 42.11%, but is still only around average levels, which is a positive considering the major averages are near 6-year highs. The average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.58% which is 137 basis points above all-time lows set in June 2003. Notwithstanding recent strong housing data, I continue to believe housing is in the process of slowing to more healthy sustainable levels. This will also likely result in the slowing of consumer spending back to around average rates over the coming months. The benchmark 10-year T-note yield rose 5 basis points on the week as economic data exceed expectations. I still expect inflation concerns to begin declining again later this quarter as economic growth slows, unit labor costs remain subdued and the mania for commodities reverses course.

Unleaded Gasoline futures fell this week and are 28.5% below September 2005 highs even as refinery utilization remains below normal as a result of the hurricanes last year, 22.3% of Gulf of Mexico oil production remains shut-in and fears over Iranian/Nigerian production disruptions persist. The mandated switch from MTBE-based reformulated gasoline to ethanol-based fuel had been the main reason behind the recent spike in gas prices. President Bush’s decision to authorize the temporary waiver of this mandate should quell gasoline shortage fears.

Demand for gasoline is decelerating and the recent rise related to shortage speculation should further dampen demand over the coming months, sending gas prices back to reasonable levels. Moreover, the API recently said US oil demand fell 2.6% in March, notwithstanding blistering economic growth of 4.8% during the first quarter. Natural gas inventories rose more than expectations, resulting in a 15.1% plunge in the price of the commodity this week to new cycle lows. Supplies are now 62.2% above the 5-year average, an all-time record high for this time of year, even as 13.3% of daily Gulf of Mexico production remains shut-in. Natural gas prices have plunged 58.3% since December 2005 highs. U.S. oil inventories are now at 8-year highs. I continue to believe oil is priced at extremely elevated levels on fear and record speculation by investment funds, not fundamentals. As the fear premium in oil dissipates back to more reasonable levels and supplies continue to rise as economic growth slows, oil should head meaningfully lower over the intermediate-term.

Gold rose for the week as the US dollar declined and economic data exceeded estimates. The US dollar fell on dovish comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke and increased speculation that a Fed “pause” is imminent.

Financial stocks outperformed for the week as the yield curve steepened. S&P 500 earnings growth for the 1st quarter is up about 13.4% year-over-year so far, almost double the long-term average and substantially above expectations of 8-9% growth just a few weeks ago. As well, 70% of companies have exceeded estimates versus the long-term average of 57%. This is the 16th consecutive quarter of double-digit profit growth, the best streak since record-keeping began in 1936. The forward p/e on the S&P 500 has contracted relentlessly during this time period and now stands at a very reasonable 15.4.

The average US stock, as measured by the Value Line Geometric Index(VGY), is up a very strong 9.1% so far this year. Moreover, the Russell 2000 Index is up 13.94% year-to-date. I still believe US economic growth peaked for the year during the first quarter and will decelerate back to around average levels through year-end. I expect stocks to continue trading mixed-to-lower over the next few weeks. Subsequently, a reversal lower in long-term rates and/or energy prices should provide the catalyst for another push higher by the major averages. The ECRI Weekly Leading Index was unchanged this week and is still forecasting healthy, but decelerating, US economic activity.

*5-day % Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,310.61 -.05%
DJIA 11,367.14 +.17%
NASDAQ 2,322.57 -.87%
Russell 2000 764.54 -.98%
Wilshire 5000 13,252.50 -.18%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,189.89 +1.57%
S&P Barra Growth 609.13 -.54%
S&P Barra Value 699.33 +.43%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 609.49 +.86%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 849.67 -.29%
Morgan Stanley Technology 544.16 -.80%
Transports 4,664.49 -.88%
Utilities 397.46 -.23%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 8,142 -2.0%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 25.0 -54.34%
Put/Call .86 -5.49%
NYSE Arms 1.08 unch.
Volatility(VIX) 11.59 unch.
ISE Sentiment 167.00 +17.61%
AAII % Bulls 42.11 +24.84%
AAII % Bears 35.96 -11.93%
US Dollar 85.98 -2.31%
CRB 349.89 -2.43%
ECRI Weekly Leading Index 137.10 unch.

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 71.58 -2.26%
Unleaded Gasoline 207.38 -3.77%
Natural Gas 6.59 -15.11%
Heating Oil 200.60 -1.71%
Gold 656.70 +5.29%
Base Metals 215.77 +.66%
Copper 324.90 +4.13%
10-year US Treasury Yield 5.05 +.78%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.58% +.77%

Leading Sectors
Banks +3.95%
Airlines +2.90%
Insurance +2.29%
Broadcasting +2.03%
Disk Drives +1.94%

Lagging Sectors
Defense -3.03%
I-Banks -3.77%
Energy -4.38%
Homebuilders -4.64%
Internet -5.21%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers
One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day % Change

Stocks Lower into the Final Hour on Losses in the Tech Sector

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Medical longs, Networking longs and Computer longs. I covered some of my (IWM) and (QQQQ) shorts today and added to my (RACK) and (TLT) longs, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is modestly higher, sector performance is mostly positive and volume is very heavy. Natural gas finished floor trading near session lows, down 4%. It has now broken its cycle low and is down 58.5% from its highs. I expect its weakness to begin to weigh on the entire energy complex over the coming weeks. Energy-related stocks have given back much of this morning's gains. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on lower long-term rates and short-covering.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Archer Daniels Midland(ADM) appointed former Chevron Corp.(CVX) executive Patricia Woertz as its new president and chief executive officer as it expands its fuel-making business.
- Vonage Holdings, a pioneer of Internet phone calling, plans to raise as much as $563.4 million in an IPO to help fund its expansion.
- Pinnacle Entertainment increased its bid for Aztar Corp.(AZR) to $1.85 billion, stepping up the competition to win the owner of the Tropicana casinos.
- The US dollar reached the weakest since May 2005 versus the euro and approached its lowest this year against the yen on anticipation interest rates will rise faster in Europe and Japan than the US.
- President Bush urged Congress to extend tax cuts to keep the economy growing and called on oil companies to help lower gasoline prices by reinvesting profits to expand productions.
- President Bush said diplomatic options to halt Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons program “are just beginning” and a report today by nuclear inspectors is helping to forge international unity on the issue.
- The UN nuclear agency today told the UN Security Council that Iran enriched uranium and is stonewalling inspectors’ efforts to determine whether the program is intended for the production of nuclear weapons.

Wall Street Journal:
- Mexico’s smaller families may strengthen the Latin American nation’s middle class and reduce the flow of migrants to the US.
- An Iraqi official predicted that a large number of US troops will leave the country this year and the remainder will be pulled out within two years.
- Time Warner’s(TWX) AOL Internet service will start a set of Web logs devoted to individual stocks such as General Electric(GE), Wal-Mart Stores(WMT) and Microsoft(MSFT).

AP:
- Iraq’s top Shiite Muslim cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, backed a plan by the incoming prime minister to disband militias.

NY Times:
- Suffolk County, on NY’s Long Island, is planning the largest government-sponsored wireless network, providing free Internet access to its 1.5 million residents.

Washington Post:
- A Spanish-language version of the US national anthem “The Star-Spangled Banner” hit the airwaves today, its release timed to coincide with the debate in Congress over immigration reform.

LA Times:
- As many as 1 million people may join two immigrant rights demonstrations Monday in LA.

China Iron and Steel Association:
- China’s first-quarter crude steel output rose 18% from a year ago to 92.2 million metric tons.

MSNBC:
- A special tax on the “windfall profits” of oil companies hasn’t worked in the past and would curtail exploration and production by energy companies, US Energy Secretary Bodman said.