Thursday, November 11, 2004

Mid-day Update

S&P 500 1,169.77 +.59%
NASDAQ 2,047.56 +.64%


Leading Sectors
Networking +1.78%
Airlines +1.41%
Semis +1.32%

Lagging Sectors
Energy -.27%
Iron/Steel -.46%
Oil Service -.46%

Other
Crude Oil 47.63 -2.58%
Natural Gas 7.22 -5.90%
Gold 435.10 +.14%
Base Metals 116.59 +.09%
U.S. Dollar 84.27 -.19%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.25% -.05%
VIX 12.78 -2.29%
Put/Call .74 +5.71%
NYSE Arms .92 -14.81%

Market Movers
TASR +5.0% after saying it is selling a version of its stun gun that shoots 25 feet.
GY +22.1% after Steel Partners II LP, GenCorp's second-biggest institutional shareholder, said it offered to buy the aerospace components maker for about $697 million in cash.
TEVA +4.9% on Arafat's death.
PRVD +28.2% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q/05 outlooks.
WFMI +5.4% after beating 4Q estimates and raising dividend.
MKTX +15.1% on continuing strong demand for IPO.
PLMO +6.0% on continuing optimism over sales of the Treo 650.
SINA +8.7% on very successful Chinese launch of Linage II, an online 3D RPG game.
ROV +10.9% after beating 4Q estimates and raising 05 forecast.
ALDN +10.6% after saying that live demonstrations of its eSafe solution will be featured during the Crossbeam System's "Securing America Tour 2005."
MDCO -12.9% after lowering 05 guidance.
CTRP -6.7% after beating 3Q estimates, slightly lowering 4Q forecast and WR Hambrecht upgrade to Buy, target $55.
WGII -5.8% after meeting 3Q estimates and lowering 04 outlook.
TIF -7.0% after missing 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q estimates.
CATT -8.0% after saying the company's CEO and a director plan to sell 950,000 shares.
VCI -7.6% after saying FTC conducting preliminary investigation into pricing policy.
AMED -7.7% on Legg Mason downgrade to Hold.
NTY -9.2% on Adams Harkness downgrade to Market Perform.

Economic Data
None of note.

Recommendations
-Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on GDT, MDT, BSX, CSCO, JNPR, CVD, DELL and KO.
-Citi SmithBarney said to Buy brokers, favorite is GS. Citi said to Buy CELG ahead of the annual ASH meeting Dec. 4-7, target $37.50. Citi said to Buy PXLW, target $13. Citi reiterated Buy on MSFT, target $33. Citi reiterated Buy on SANM, target $12. Citi reiterated Buy on SBUX, target $65. Citi reiterated Buy on INTC, target $25.50. Citi reiterated Sell on AMD, target $12. Citi reiterated Buy on PHM, target $86. Citi reiterated Buy on UNH, target $86. Citi reiterated Buy on MO, target $68. Citi reiterated Buy on FD, target $62.
-UBS rated NEW Buy, target $70.
-Merrill Lynch raised AMD to Buy, target $22.
-Bank of America rated AES Buy, target $15. BofA raised SPLS to Buy, target $35.
-Prudential raised GG to Overweight, target $18.
-Morgan Stanley raised KOF to Overweight, target $25. Morgan rated SWK Underweight.
-CSFB raised CNP to Outperform, target $12.

Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are higher mid-day on optimism over falling energy prices, short-covering and economic growth. Symantec CEO Thompson said the largest maker of computer security software detects about 100 new viruses in its labs every week, the Wall Street Journal reported. Canadian Health Minister Dosanjh said he may cut drug sales by companies over the Internet to U.S. buyers to "ensure the safety of the Canadian drug supply," the Globe and Mail reported. U.S. Steel Corp. will raise its book prices on tin mill products by 8 percent and boost its surcharge by $85 a ton to $155 a ton on Jan. 2 to cover rising freight costs, American Metal Market reported. Service Employees Intl. Union President Stern threatened to withdraw his organization from the AFL-CIO if proposals for union consolidation and returning dues aren't adopted, the LA Times reported. SAC Capital Advisors LLC is betting on teen retail with its recent investment in money-losing Wet Seal, the LA Times reported. Nintendo has received 2 million advance orders in Japan for its Nintendo DS portable video game system, more than double the company's expected amount, Nikkei English News reported. Coca-Cola lowered its earnings and sales goals for the foreseeable future because of slumping soft-drink sales in the U.S. and increased competition from PepsiCo, Bloomberg said. Blockbuster said it wants to buy Hollywood Entertainment for about $1 billion, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil is falling for the third session in four on speculation that U.S. inventories are sufficient to meet demand from refineries making heating oil for winter, Bloomberg said. OAO Yukos Oil is unlikely to survive government demands for more than $14 billion in back taxes, said an economic adviser to Russian President Putin.

Bottom Line: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on strength in my security, restaurant and wireless longs. I added a few new longs this morning in various sectors, bringing the Portfolio's market exposure to 125% net long. One of my new longs is GS and I am using a $97 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market is pretty good today and improving as volume is increasing and the advance/decline line is at its highs for the day. However, measures of investor anxiety are falling near levels normally associated with short-term tops. I expect U.S. stocks to rise modestly into the close on short-covering ahead of tomorrow's economic data.

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