Monday, November 15, 2004

Monday Close

S&P 500 1,183.81 -.03%
NASDAQ 2,094.09 +.42%


Leading Sectors
Airlines +3.47%
Homebuilders +2.06%
HMOs +1.88%

Lagging Sectors
Commodity -1.13%
Energy -2.18%
Oil Service -3.22%

Other
Crude Oil 46.72 -.32%
Natural Gas 7.43 -.01%
Gold 437.00 -.07%
Base Metals 118.03 -.23%
U.S. Dollar 84.00 +.37%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.19% +.18%
VIX 13.38 +.38%
Put/Call .54 -28.0%
NYSE Arms 1.07 +28.92%

After-hours Movers
LTON +17.2% after beating 3Q estimates and raising 4Q guidance.
LMIA +10.2% on continued optimism over 2005 outlook.
BOBE -3.7% after meeting 2Q estimates and lowering 2005 guidance.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on GE and Underperform on PSS, FISV.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished mixed today on a consolidation of recent gains. After the close, Skype Technologies SA, the European Internet telephone company, is to start an alliance with Tom Online to enter China's expanding online market, the Financial Times said. Wynn Las Vegas plans to sell $1.1 billion of 10-year first mortgage notes to repay other debt, according to S&P. The U.K. government will introduce a smoking ban in England to include all restaurants and bars that serve food and all enclosed public and work places, the BBC reported. Hedge fund manager Leon Cooperman acquired a 2.8% stake in MCI in the third quarter, making the No. 2 U.S. long-distance phone carrier his largest single stock holding, Bloomberg reported. Steel prices are set to add to gains as supplies remain tight because of surging China demand, said the president of Nippon Steel, the world's third-largest steelmaker. Lionel LLC, a maker of model trains for more than 100 years, filed for bankruptcy protection today, Bloomberg said. Fannie Mae said third-quarter profit rose 1% to $1.85 billion and that it won't meet the SEC's deadline for filing financial statements, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my security, semi, Chinese ADR and Indian ADR longs. I took profits in one of my internet longs in the afternoon and added VECO long, thus leaving the Portfolio 125% net long. I am using a $19.5 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market improved modestly into the afternoon, notwithstanding a rebound in oil prices from morning lows. As I forecasted earlier in the year, the Bloomberg Homebuilding Index clearly broke its old all-time high today. While these stocks are a little extended in the short-term, they should continue to perform well over the intermediate-term. U.S. stocks will likely remain mixed-to-higher over the next few days, consolidating recent gains, before another substantial upwards move occurs around Thanksgiving.

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