Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Mid-day Update

S&P 500 1,139.59 +.80%
NASDAQ 2,000.22 +1.03%


Leading Sectors
Airlines +3.34%
I-Banks +1.71%
Wireless +1.54%

Lagging Sectors
Commodity -.56%
Energy -.56%
Oil Service -1.45%

Other
Crude Oil 49.95 -.40%
Natural Gas 8.56 -1.83%
Gold 420.30 -1.82%
Base Metals 114.64 -.17%
U.S. Dollar 85.42 +.26%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.08% +.19%
VIX 15.46 -4.98%
Put/Call .80 -12.09%
NYSE Arms .87 -32.03%

Market Movers
NXTL +4.8% after saying it resolved disputes with Verizon over airwaves and trademark names.
BJS -6.3% after missing 4Q estimates and giving disappointing guidance.
UNA +26.0% after substantially beating 3Q estimates.
NANO +24.9% after substantially beating 3Q estimates.
ODSY +18.3% after meeting 3Q estimates and announcing $30M share buyback.
RYAAY +17.7% after beating 2Q estimates and giving positive guidance.
SRX +12.8% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q/05 outlook.
NUE +5.3% after multiple upgrades.
MNT -13.6% after meeting 2Q estimates and lowering 05 outlook.
USFC -11.7% after saying CEO DiStasio resigned.
ALO -12.6% after missing 3Q estimates and lowering 04 outlook.
BLUD after saying its Italian subsidiary and the subsidiary's former President and now President are the subject of a criminal investigation in Milan, Italy.
MVSN -8.7% after beating 3Q estimates and lowering 2Q outlook.

Economic Data
None of note.

Recommendations
-Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on DNA, BIIB and IGT. Goldman reiterated Underperform on MMC and FRX. Goldman raised X and NUE to Outperform.
-Citi SmithBarney reiterated Buy on FRE, target $76. Citi reiterated Buy on ACGL, target $48. Citi reiterated Buy on MXRE, target $24. Citi reiterated Buy on TYC, target $40. Citi reiterated Buy on PFG, target $42. Citi reiterated Buy on NSM, target $21. Citi reiterated Sell on SPW, target $35. Citi reiterated Buy on MXIM, target $53. Citi reiterated Buy on KCI, target $67. Citi reiterated Buy on AGN, target $85.
-UBS raised WLK to Buy, target $28.
-CIBC lowered ABS to Sector Underperform, target $24.
-Deutsche Bank rated ATRS Buy, target $32.
-Legg Mason raised SRX to Buy, target $65.
-Prudential rated ERICY Underweight, target $25. COTT cut to Underweight at Prudential, target $24. BWA rated Overweight at Prudential, target $50.
-Merrill Lynch cut AOC to Sell.

Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are higher mid-day as domestic terrorism fears plunge, energy prices fall and optimism over future economic growth increases. Yahoo! named Lloyd Braun, former chairman of ABC Entertainment, its top executive for entertainment and media content, the NY Times reported. Sinclair Broadcast Group's license-renewal applications for tv stations it owns in North and South Carolina are being challenged by a Massachusetts-based non-profit group, the LA Times reported. Palestinian leader Arafat is responding well to medical treatment in a Paris-area hospital and is following today's U.S. elections, Agence France-Presse reported. Theo van Gogh, the Dutch critic of Islam through newspaper columns and maker of a film about violence against women in Muslim societies, was shot and stabbed to death in Amsterdam today, Bloomberg reported. Wal-Mart plans to open as many as 15 new stores in China next year, competing for a foothold with Carrefour SA and Metro Group as the government lifts curbs on foreign retailers, Bloomberg said. Shares of OAO Yukos, Russia's biggest oil exporter, dropped after the company said outstanding tax claims exceed its market value, fueling concern a 16-month dispute with the government may destroy Yukos, Bloomberg said. Voters around the country waited in line for hours for a chance to help select the next U.S. President, as independent election experts predicted a record turnout, Bloomberg said. Nokia plans to introduce more than 20 handsets featuring cameras with at least 1 megapixel resolution next year in a bid to regain lost market share, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil futures are falling for a fourth session in five on expectations that growth in consumption will slow next year, reducing concern that supplies will be inadequate to meet demand, Bloomberg reported.

Bottom Line: The Portfolio is substantially higher mid-day on strength in my gaming, biotech, RFID and semi-equipment longs. I have not traded today and the Portfolio is still 125% net long. The tone of the market is good as most stocks and sectors are rising, notwithstanding recent gains and election apprehension. It is also very positive to see oil falling again even with the prospects for accelerating economic growth, attacks on pipelines in Iraq and more problems at OAO Yukos. The only real negative I see is a decline in measures of investor anxiety. However, this should be expected considering the fact that after the Madrid bombings an overwhelming majority of people felt an attack on U.S. soil before our election was likely. I expect U.S. stocks to move modestly higher into the close and gap higher on the open tomorrow.

No comments: