Monday, November 01, 2004

Monday Watch

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
ACDO/.36
ASF/.10
CHK/.30
MXIM/.42
NBIX/-.39
PDLI/-.21
TYC/.43
SYY/.35

Splits
Rock 3-for-2

Economic Data
Personal Income for September is estimated to rise .3% versus a .4% increase in August.
Personal Spending for September is estimated to rise .6% versus no change in August.
PCE Deflator for September is estimated to rise 2.0% versus a 2.1% increase in August.
PCE Core for September is estimated to rise 1.5% versus a 1.4% gain in August.
Construction Spending for September is estimated up .4% versus a .8% gain in August.
ISM Manufacturing for October is estimated at 58.5 versus a reading of 58.5 in September.
ISM Prices Paid for October is estimated at 79.0 versus a reading of 76.0 in September.

Weekend Recommendations
Cashin' In had guests that were positive on FHRX and mixed on HD, SZE, MRK. Forbes on Fox had guests that were positive on KRB, SYY, PLMO, MOT, AAPL and TXN. Bulls and Bears had guests that were positive on EBAY, VLO, LLL, CMCSA, RUK, CAN and SMH. Barron's had positive comments on PGR, NVS, FTI, AIG, HSP, VAR, WSH, CLE, PMI, RDN, DE, MOV, TIF, COH, JWN, NMG/A and negative comments on LVLT. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on HC, AMGN, TU, GILD, EBAY, BBY and KO. Goldman reiterated Underperform on FRNT.

Weekend News
Survivors in the U.S. airline industry will be carriers that forget full-service and improve operating efficiency to keep fares and travel delays to a minimum, the NY Times reported. Sempra Energy, owner of the largest U.S. natural gas utility, won approval to build a liquefied natural gas terminal in Mexico, the first such facility on North America's West Coast, the LA Times reported. Democratic NY Attorney General Spitzer may file civil fraud accusations against insurance broker Aon Corp. within two weeks as part of his investigation into the industry, the NY Times reported. Northwest Airlines, which has pared about a quarter of its workforce since 2001, plans to bring back about 600 furloughed flight attendants, the AP reported. Kaiser Permanente, a California-based HMO, may be a model for the U.S. health care system, with its emphasis on preventive care and controlling chronic illnesses, the NY Times reported. U.S. venture capital investment fell 15% in the third quarter, after five straight quarters of growth, evidence of a cooling-off that may benefit the industry, the NY Times reported. Iraqi Prime Minister Allawi said he will order an assault on the insurgent-controlled city of Fallujah if efforts to end the standoff aren't resolved soon, the AP reported. Afghanistan will create a ministry for narcotics to fight drug trafficking the country, Agence France-Presse said. FedEx Corp. will increase its trans-Atlantic shipping capacity by one-fifth in March, the Wall Street Journal said. GM, which has four manufacturing ventures in China, said it will help the country's largest carmaker develop low-polluting vehicles that run on gasoline-electric engines and fuel cells, Bloomberg said. U.S. employers probably added 175,000 workers to payrolls in October, the most in five months, while the unemployment rate held at a three-year low of 5.4%, the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists show. Crude oil is rising modestly in NY after reports said unions in Nigeria, the fifth-biggest supplier to the U.S., called a strike this month to disrupt the country's oil exports, Bloomberg said.

Late-Night Trading
Asian indices are mixed, -.75% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.17%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.27%

BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. stocks to open mixed in the morning and rise modestly into the afternoon on good economic reports, diminishing domestic terrorism fears, stable oil prices, good earnings reports, short-covering. The Portfolio is 125% net long heading into tomorrow.

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