2004 U.S. Presidential Winner
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Bottom Line: The Iowa Electronic Markets show President Bush's chances of re-election at 54.8% versus the chances of a Kerry victory at 45.2%. Upon careful study of all the polls, underlying dynamics within the polls, the biased nature of some polls, Tradsports.com futures and the Iowa Electronic Markets, I have concluded that President Bush will receive 310 electoral votes to Senator Kerry's 228. Thus, President Bush should win re-election by a large enough margin to prevent any delay in the final outcome and substantially diminish the impact of the many lawsuits that are sure to follow. As a result, I expect the Dow Jones Industrial Average to rally 150-200 points on Wednesday.
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