Wednesday, October 27, 2004

Wednesday Close

S&P 500 1,125.40 +1.29%
NASDAQ 1,969.99 +2.14%


Leading Sectors
Airlines +5.0%
I-Banks +3.86%
Semis +3.56%

Lagging Sectors
Commodity -1.52%
Energy -1.97%
Oil Service -3.0%

Other
Crude Oil 52.15 -.59%
Natural Gas 7.62 -9.24%
Gold 425.00 -.14%
Base Metals 112.86 +1.50%
U.S. Dollar 85.45 +.28%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.08% +2.07%
VIX 15.72 -4.09%
Put/Call .68 -8.11%
NYSE Arms .76 +35.71%

After-hours Movers
KOMG +12.0% after beating 3Q estimates and raising 4Q outlook.
SWIR +4.8% after beating 3Q estimates and raising 4Q outlook.
SRCL +4.1% after beating 3Q estimates.
ASKJ -17.8% after meeting 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q revenue estimate slightly.
AKAM -7.5% on disappointing 3Q results.
FWHT -6.7% on ASKJ report.
PHTN -5.8% after beating 4Q estimate, but disappointing 1Q guidance.
APPB -5.0% after meeting 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q outlook.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on SYMC. Goldman reiterated Underperform on AG, FLYI and BA.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks fininish sharply higher today as oil prices fell and optimism over economic growth increased. After the close, over 60% of the world's largest 2,000 companies will begin to adopt so-called voice over internet protocol, or VOIP, in the next 2 years, the Financial Times reported. Yasser Arafat is unconscious and in "serious" condition at his compound in the West Bank town of Ramallah, CNN reported. Crude oil futures plunged almost 5% in NY, the biggest decline in five months, after an Energy Department report showed that U.S. inventories rose more than expected, Bloomberg said. Marsh & McLennan's former chief executive officer, Jeffrey Greenberg, exercised options to buy $15.5 million worth of stock on the day he resigned under pressure from NY Attorney General Eliot Spitzer.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished substantially higher today, led by my wireless, Chinese/Russian ADR and internet longs. I exited an internet long in the afternoon as it hit my stop-loss and added CTRP long, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. I am using $39.75 stop-loss on this position. Today was a very good day for the Bulls as volume rose and the advance/decline line finished at its highs for the day. It appears to me the market is beginning to anticipate the acceleration in U.S. economic growth during the fourth quarter I forecast a couple of months ago. Falling oil prices only add to my conviction. I expect stocks to consolidate recent gains over the next couple of days before moving modestly higher Friday afternoon. Monday and Tuesday should see further gains on a substantial decrease in domestic terrorism fears. Finally, stocks will likely see another substantial move upwards next Wed. and Thur. on an end to the negative Presidential campaign without terrorism. I do not expect a delay in the election outcome. I anticipate the popular vote will be relatively close, however the electoral gap will be such that impending lawsuits and accusations will look petty and ridiculous. It will be clear who won the Presidency by next Tues. night.

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