Friday, October 29, 2004

Friday Watch

Earnings of Note

None of note.

Economic Data
3Q Actual GDP estimated up 4.3% versus 3.3% in 2Q.
3Q Actual Personal Consumption estimated up 4.6% versus a 1.6% rise in 2Q.
3Q Actual GDP Price Deflator estimated up 1.6% versus a 3.2% gain in 2Q.
3Q Employment Cost Index estimated up 1.0% versus a .9% increase in 2Q.
Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for October estimated at 88.0 versus a prior estimate of 87.5.
Chicago Purchasing Manager Index for October estimated at 59.0 versus 61.9 in September.

Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on AET, PHCC, PXD, SPG, LIZ, AMT, BHI and Underperform on UAL, CAN, DCLK, XOM. California Coastal Communities(CALC) shares are expected to rise as investors are attracted by land and properties owned by the builder and developer, Business Week reported. Wild Oats Markets(OATS), whose shares have dropped 55% this year, may be an acquisition target for a larger rival, Business Week said. NCR Corp.(NCR) shares my rise as high as $65 in twelve months, citing KeyBanc Capital analyst Matt Summerville, Business Week reported.

Late-Night News
Asian indices are modestly lower on concerns over slowing demand from China. A man identifying himself as an American member of al-Qaeda and speaking in English threatened new attacks that he said will cause U.S. streets to "run red with blood," in a videotape ABC News reported. Talk-show host Bill O'Reilly and Andrea Mackris, a Fox News producer, settled a complaint filed by O'Reilly accusing her and her lawyer of trying to extort $60 million from him and Fox before filing her lawsuit. All parties have agreed that there was no wrongdoing by O'Reilly, Mackris or her lawyer, CNN reported. AOL, Microsoft, Earthlink and Yahoo! sued dozens of junk e-mail senders in a second wave of lawsuits under a new U.S. law designed to curb spam, Bloomberg reported. China's first interest rate increase in nine years may cool its economy without damaging global growth, economists and international policy makers said.

Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.75% to unch. on average.
S&P 500 indicated unch.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.07%

BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open mixed in the morning and head modestly higher into the afternoon on a strong GDP report, better earnings and lower oil prices. However, the tightening of the election polls and terrorism fears before the weekend may stifle gains. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into tomorrow.

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