Wednesday, October 20, 2004

Mid-day Update

S&P 500 1,101.65 -.14%
NASDAQ 1,929.06 +.32%


Leading Sectors
Oil Service +3.45%
HMOs +2.67%
Energy +2.0%

Lagging Sectors
Banks -1.17%
I-Banks -1.27%
Airlines -2.30%

Other
Crude Oil 54.80 +2.83%
Natural Gas 7.59 +6.56%
Gold 427.00 +1.28%
Base Metals 112.80 -.36%
U.S. Dollar 86.17 -.77%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.00% -.76%
VIX 15.01 -.79%
Put/Call .80 -13.98%
NYSE Arms 1.15 -15.44%

Market Movers
CFC -11.7% after missing 3Q estimates, lowering 04 guidance and boosting dividend.
MOT -5.7% after missing 3Q estimates slightly and reiterating 4Q outlook.
ERTS -4.6% after meeting 2Q estimates and lowering 3Q guidance.
JAKK -31.0% after World Wrestling Entertainment sued the maker of its action figures, alleging the company violated anti-bribery laws.
SGTL +22.0% after beating 3Q estimates and raising 4Q outlook.
FILE +18.2% after substantially beating 3Q estimates.
ATMI +12.7% after beating 3Q estimates.
PLCE +16.0% after saying it agreed to purchase the Disney Store chain in North America for an undisclosed amount.
AAP +11.7% after meeting 3Q estimates, reaffirming 4Q outlook and Goldman rating of Outperform.
CHRW +6.2% after beating 3Q estimates and Legg Mason upgrade to Hold.
ARTC +9.2% after meeting 3Q estimates and reaffirming 04/05 outlook.
ASTE -22.9% on disappointing 3Q results.
TSS -12.4% after beating 3Q estimates, but Citi downgrade to Sell.

Economic Data
None of note.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on FSL, AA, CFC, SBC, PFE, NRG, STN and FON. Goldman reiterated Underperform on INFA, UNM, CL, PRXL and AMCC. Goldman rated AAP Outperform. Citi SmithBarney upgraded DO to Buy, target $40. Citi upgraded OVNT to Buy, target $41. Citi reiterated Buy on STZ, target $47. Citi reiterated Sell on MEDI, target $19. Citi reiterated Buy on ERTS, target $60. Citi reiterated Buy on MDU, target $28. Citi reiterated Buy on AVO, target $46. Citi reiterated Buy on MAN, target $56. Citi reiterated Buy on FNM, target $81. Citi reiterated Buy on MO, target $65. Citi reiterated Buy on FON, target $24. PCLE, KR raised to Overweight at JP Morgan. CTCO, CTL, CMS rated Overweight at JP Morgan. SWY, CTB, CBB cut to Underweight at JP Morgan. MVK raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank, target $31. FON raised to Buy at Bank of America, target $23. SBC rated Buy at Legg Mason. PKG raised to Outperform at CSFB, target $25. CBD raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley. MET raised to Buy at Merrill Lynch, target $43. PDLE rated Overweight at Prudential, target $27. OSCI rated Overweight at Prudential, target $8. TELK rated Underweight at Prudential, target $13. CELG rated Overweight at Prudential, target $68. CAL, DAL cut to Underperform at Bear Stearns.

Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are quietly mixed as gains in technology shares are offsetting losses in financials. The world's 1,500 oil tankers are booked up and their rates are rising to meet the growing global demand for oil, especially from China, the NY Times said. Connecticut Attorney General Blumenthal issued subpoenas to health insurers, employee-benefit providers and auto insurers as regulators widened their investigation of insurance practices, the NY Times said. New York is ending a program of allowing homeless families in city shelters to apply for U.S. rent vouchers or public housing, in favor of offering rent assistance for as long as five years, the NY Times reported. Target and Wal-Mart are putting more emphasis on selling products under their own store brands as they seek to set themselves apart from competitors, the NY Times said. Apple Computer reached an agreement with the rock band U2 to sell customized IPod digital music players emblazoned with the band's logo, the NY Post reported. California Governor Schwarzenegger plans to visit Ohio to campaign for President Bush, the San Francisco Chronicle reported. Bonds of Marsh & McLennan are trading at yields comparable to junk debt, and may weaken further, on concern a lawsuit filed by New York Attorney General Spitzer will cost it business, Bloomberg said. Iranian President Khatami today rejected calls from European nations to halt a nuclear program, raising the odds that the UN Security Council will have to consider the matter as early as next month, Bloomberg reported. An index of U.S. mortgage applications rose last week by the most in two months as a drop in borrowing costs boosted home purchases and refinancing, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil futures are rising after an Energy Department report showed that U.S. inventories of heating oil fell for a third week, Bloomberg reported.

Bottom Line: The Portfolio is unchanged mid-day as strength in my retail and semiconductor longs is being offset by weakness in my wireless and Russian ADR longs. I added a few longs into this mornings weakness bringing the Portfolio to 125% net long. One of my new longs is DITC and I am using a stop-loss of $24.50 on this position. Today's action is relatively positive considering higher energy prices and some earnings disappointments. Technology shares continue to outperform and exhibit bullish bullish behavior. I expect U.S. shares to rise into the close on short-covering and bargain-hunting.

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