Thursday, October 21, 2004

Thursday Close

S&P 500 1,106.49 +.26%
NASDAQ 1,953.62 +1.07%


Leading Sectors
Airlines +4.21%
Semis +3.97%
Internet +3.22%

Lagging Sectors
Telecom -1.06%
HMOs -2.0%
Disk Drives -2.03%

Other
Crude Oil 54.47 unch.
Natural Gas 7.70 unch.
Gold 425.60 unch.
Base Metals 113.84 +1.05%
U.S. Dollar 86.09 +.08%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 3.99% +.38%
VIX 14.54 -2.09%
Put/Call .78 -10.34%
NYSE Arms 1.12 +.90%

After-hours Movers
GOOG +7.98% after beating 3Q revenue estimates substantially.
NAV -4.97% after saying the SEC requested information on its pension-fund accounting.
AMZN -8.94% after missing 3Q estimates and lowering 05 outlook.
BRCM -4.33% after beating 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q guidance.
SYNA +9.85% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q outlook.
MCK +4.87% after beating 2Q estimates substantially.
WEBX -10.49% after meeting 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q guidance.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on IR, GLK, ALK and CAT. Goldman reiterated Underperform on SGP. Shares of Sysco(SYY), North America's largest food-service distributor, may rise about 30% when the U.S. economy improves and oil prices decline, Business Week reported. Mine Safety Appliances(MSA), which makes and sells body-protection gear in 120 countries, is expected to further benefit from spending on security, Business Week reported. Transocean(RIG), which specializes in drilling for oil in deep water and harsh environments, may see a boost in business because of higher oil prices, Business Week reported.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished mostly higher today on continuing strength in the technology sector. After the close, Oregon and other U.S. states may establish new rules meant to force insurance brokers to disclose fees they get for selling policies, following a decision by California to do so, Dow Jones reported. Microsoft said first-quarter profit rose 11% as sales of Windows corporate network software increased, Bloomberg said. Boeing said it has received a request from the SEC related to the way it accounts for pension and other retirement-benefit plans, Bloomberg said. Google said net income more than doubles to $52 million after sales of Web advertising rose, Bloomberg said. Intel canceled plans to develop new chips for large, flat-panel televisions, Bloomberg reported. Amazon said 2005 sales will trail analyst estimates, sending its shares lower after-hours, Bloomberg said. MedImmune will deliver another 1 million doses of its FluMist nasal spray flu vaccine to help ease a U.S. shortage, after restarting a Philadelphia plant, Bloomberg reported. Lehman Brothers, the most accurate forecaster of exchange rates in the third quarter, predicts the dollar will decline to $1.32 per euro in a year from $1.26 today, Bloomberg said.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished substantially higher today on strength in my internet, semiconductor and software longs. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 125% net long. The tone of the market improved throughout the day as volume increased and the advance/decline finished at its daily highs. While trading over the near-term could be choppy, I continue to believe stocks will begin moving meaningfully higher before the election and longer-term investors should use any weakness to build positions in favorite longs. I also still believe technology stocks will outperform throughout the quarter.

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