Monday, October 04, 2004

Monday Close

S&P 500 1,135.17 +.32%
NASDAQ 1,952.40 +.53
%

Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +3.23%
Iron/Steel +2.69%
Airlines +2.05%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Service -.90%
Broadcasting -1.27%
Homebuilders -4.83%

Other
Crude Oil 49.93 +.04%
Natural Gas 6.72 unch.
Gold 416.20 +.14%
Base Metals 120.02 -.03%
U.S. Dollar 88.43 +.06%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.17% -.46%
VIX 13.41 +5.18%
Put/Call .83 -12.63%
NYSE Arms .70 +52.17%

After-hours Movers
NFLX +13.57% after beating 3Q estimates.
FRX +7.25% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q guidance.
PHM -6.43% after cutting 3Q/04 forecast slightly.
NATI -14.97% after lowering 3Q estimates.
EPIX -8.35% after saying the FDA has extended the action date for completion of its review of MS-325.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on SII and WAG.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished modestly higher today, led by technology shares, on optimism over accelerating economic growth. After the close, U.S. Federal Communications Chairman Powell will recommend that Cingular Wireless be allowed to buy AT&T Wireless Services, Reuters reported. LG Electronic, the world's sixth largest cell-phone maker, expects mobile-phone sales to increase more than 50% next year, Reuters reported. Arcelor SA, the world's largest steelmaker, said it may stop supplying some of its biggest customers unless they accept price increases scheduled for next year, the Financial Times said. Treasury Secretary Snow said tax cuts signed into law by President Bush boosted the U.S. economy and should be made permanent, Bloomberg reported. Forest Labs, maker of the antidepressants Celexa and Lexapro, said fiscal second-quarter earnings rose more than analysts estimated, Bloomberg reported. Netflix said its subscribers increased 73% to 2.23 million from a year earlier and raised its third-quarter profit forecast, Bloomberg said. The average U.S. retail price for regular-grade gasoline was $1.94/gallon this past week, down from $2.06 in late May, Bloomberg reported. Wal-Mart plans to open as many as 295 stores in the U.S. in 2005, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished substantially higher today on strength in my steel, software, biotech and restaurant longs. I took profits in a homebuilding long in the afternoon and added ERES long, thus leaving the Portfolio 125% net long. I am using a stop-loss of $13.35 on this position. Notwithstanding the afternoon pullback, today's action was pretty good for the Bulls as most stocks advanced and volume increased. A period of consolidation to digest recent gains is warranted. As well, the CRB fell and most measures of investor anxiety rose. Homebuilders will likely continue today's sell-off in the short-run, however any pullback is likely a correction within a secular move upwards.

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