Thursday, May 05, 2005

Stocks Modestly Lower Mid-day on GM and Ford Debt Downgrades

Indices
S&P 500 1,170.27 -.46%
DJIA 10,322.42 -.60%
NASDAQ 1,955.81 -.33%
Russell 2000 592.78 -.41%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,515.06 -.40%
S&P Barra Growth 564.92 -.39%
S&P Barra Value 600.91 -.54%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 581.07 -.60%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 709.61 -.62%
Morgan Stanley Technology 444.85 -.36%
Transports 3,525.56 +.17%
Utilities 364.77 -1.28%
Put/Call .98 +3.16%
NYSE Arms 1.35 +176.82%
Volatility(VIX) 14.28 +3.10%
ISE Sentiment 118.00 -10.61%
US Dollar 84.01 +.01%
CRB 299.25 -.57%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 49.80 -.76%
Unleaded Gasoline 145.40 -.85%
Natural Gas 6.62 -.08%
Heating Oil 143.00 -1.68%
Gold 430.30 +.07%
Base Metals 122.16 +.71%
Copper 143.10 +.14%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.16% -.42%

Leading Sectors
Oil Tankers +1.90%
Retail +.67%
Homebuilders +.66%

Lagging Sectors
Steel -1.04%
Networking -1.08%
Disk Drives -1.93%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower mid-day on losses in my Internet longs and Energy-related shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is modestly negative as the advance/decline line is slightly lower, most sectors are declining and volume is above-average. Measures of investor anxiety are higher. Today’s overall market action is neutral considering the F and GM debt downgrades and yesterday’s sharp gains. The debt downgrades raise the odds that the Fed will pause sooner-than most expect. It is also a positive to see the CRB Index back below 300. I expect US stocks to trade higher into the close on short-covering, bargain-hunting and more optimism the Fed will slow their pace of rate hikes.

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