Wednesday, May 04, 2005

Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The South Korean won and Taiwan dollar may decline this year as traders say prices rallied too far on speculation China, the two economies' biggest export market, will allow its currency to strengthen.

NY Times:
- Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Goldman Sachs are among US buyout firms on a German Parliament-compiled list of companies believed to have benefited excessively from investing in Germany.

AFP:
- Saudi Arabia is ready to sign key nuclear safeguard agreements.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on IBM, AMLN, NFP and DELL.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.50% to +1.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.14%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.17%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
ATVI/.01
ATK/1.25
BRL/.62
CLX/.77
CVS/.68
CNO/.41
DISH/.39
FLR/.57
G/.43
JNY/.70
MFE/.19
MCK/.73
PIXR/.47
SINA/.22
SGMS/.24
WMB/.22

Splits
None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 EST:
- Preliminary 1Q Non-farm Productivity is estimated to rise 1.8% versus a 2.1% gain in 4Q.
- Preliminary 1Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise 2.0% versus a 1.3% increase in 4Q.
- Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 323K versus 320K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2595K versus 2555K prior.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, spurred by gains in Taiwan on speculation of improving relations with China. I expect US equities to open modestly lower on worries over slowing retail sales. Unseasonably wet/mild weather and high energy prices likely dampened sales in April. I will look to buy this sector on weakness over the coming weeks as I believe lower energy prices, low interest rates, lower inflation, higher stock prices, modestly improving real incomes/job prospects, rising sentiment and a good housing market will provide a tailwind for these stocks in the second half of the year. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into tomorrow.

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