Tuesday, October 18, 2005

Stocks Lower Mid-day, Pressured by Commodity Stocks

Indices
S&P 500 1,182.84 -.61%
DJIA 10,313.34 -.35%
NASDAQ 2,063.93 -.31%
Russell 2000 627.51 -.92%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,783.04 -.65%
S&P Barra Growth 569.83 -.52%
S&P Barra Value 608.80 -.70%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 579.71 -.56%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 688.64 -.96%
Morgan Stanley Technology 492.14 -.28%
Transports 3,598.26 -1.25%
Utilities 393.75 -1.68%
Put/Call .88 -2.22%
NYSE Arms 1.24 +92.92%
Volatility(VIX) 15.37 +4.77%
ISE Sentiment 197.00 +36.81%
US Dollar 90.34 +.61%
CRB 330.32 -.64%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 63.80 -.87%
Unleaded Gasoline 176.40 -2.83%
Natural Gas 13.54 -2.50%
Heating Oil 195.25 -1.55%
Gold 475.00 -.36%
Base Metals 135.07 -.27%
Copper 182.40 +.16%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.47% -.36%

Leading Sectors %
Airlines +1.66%
Drugs +.23%
Hospitals +.21%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Service -2.61%
Energy -3.16%
Oil Tankers -4.42%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day on gains in my Energy-related shorts and Steel shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are lower and volume is light. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Today’s overall market action is negative considering the decline in energy prices, fall in long-term rates and mostly positive earnings reports. The Johnson Redbook same-store sales index rose 3.5% year-over-year last week vs. a 3.2% rise the prior week. This week's gain is up from a 1.5% increase in late April and the 24th week in a row the index has risen 3% or more. Considering last month was the sixth warmest September in U.S. history and saw a significant decline in consumer sentiment, it is a big positive that retail sales have remained brisk. I expect sales to beat lowered expectations this holiday season. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher from current levels into the close on short-covering.

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